Tropical Depression 26,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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curtadams
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#21 Postby curtadams » Wed Oct 26, 2005 10:43 pm

ANOTHER one :eek: :roll: <sigh>
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#22 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Oct 26, 2005 10:46 pm

When will it become Beta?
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#23 Postby gilbert88 » Wed Oct 26, 2005 10:48 pm

boca_chris wrote:so you think future Beta is not going to impact FL?


Speaking of FL... what happened to CHRISTY?
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#24 Postby whereverwx » Wed Oct 26, 2005 10:58 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I think this seasons going to go all the way to OMEGA!!! In which he will be a storm twice the size of typhoon tips with 200 mph winds off the Florida coast making landfall into MIami...Then moving northward into new york city.


Funny how just a few weeks ago you stated that we would not even see Alpha… and that Wilma would end up being the last storm of the season. Apparently the human mind changes faster than we think.
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#25 Postby Regit » Wed Oct 26, 2005 11:18 pm

Calamity wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I think this seasons going to go all the way to OMEGA!!! In which he will be a storm twice the size of typhoon tips with 200 mph winds off the Florida coast making landfall into MIami...Then moving northward into new york city.


Funny how just a few weeks ago you stated that we would not even see Alpha… and that Wilma would end up being the last storm of the season. Apparently the human mind changes faster than we think.



Well, to be fair, every storm since Emily has been the "end of the season" on this board. The "front's coming down and ending the season" scenarios are ridiculous when applied to the entire Atlantic. Last season it was "over" in October and we had a storm out there on December 5. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a December storm this year.

In July, I jokingly said in the chat room that the last storm would be Epsilon. I wish I'd been serious and put some money on it. :)
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#26 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Oct 27, 2005 12:21 am

Calamity wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I think this seasons going to go all the way to OMEGA!!! In which he will be a storm twice the size of typhoon tips with 200 mph winds off the Florida coast making landfall into MIami...Then moving northward into new york city.


Funny how just a few weeks ago you stated that we would not even see Alpha… and that Wilma would end up being the last storm of the season. Apparently the human mind changes faster than we think.


I was joking around...Not being serious! :wink:
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#27 Postby quandary » Thu Oct 27, 2005 12:38 am

It seems like this season has been very good at eking out tropical storms and very powerful hurricanes. Not much in between though. Just Nate, Ophelia, Maria (sortof) and Irene in the hurricane range, which is surprisingly few considering that we're up to NS 22, and likely to be at 23. What will TD 26 be?
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#28 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Oct 27, 2005 12:53 am

The depression has become better organized..In has formed a large deep area of convection, with inflow coming into the system from the southeast. I think it could be nearing tropical storm soon...
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#29 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Oct 27, 2005 1:43 am

Dvorak numbers show it's a 40mph TS:

27/0545 UTC 11.0N 81.5W T2.5/2.5 26
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#30 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Oct 27, 2005 2:08 am

Should be Beta by 5am:

558
WHXX01 KWBC 270651
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM BETA (AL262005) ON 20051027 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051027 0600 051027 1800 051028 0600 051028 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.3N 81.7W 12.2N 82.6W 13.0N 83.7W 13.8N 84.8W
BAMM 11.3N 81.7W 12.0N 82.6W 12.6N 83.5W 13.0N 84.6W
A98E 11.3N 81.7W 11.7N 82.3W 12.1N 83.3W 12.5N 84.4W
LBAR 11.3N 81.7W 12.2N 82.0W 13.6N 82.7W 15.5N 83.7W
SHIP 35KTS 44KTS 51KTS 57KTS
DSHP 35KTS 44KTS 51KTS 57KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051029 0600 051030 0600 051031 0600 051101 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.4N 85.8W 14.5N 88.3W 13.9N 91.9W 13.8N 96.1W
BAMM 13.1N 85.8W 12.6N 89.1W 11.9N 93.8W 11.7N 98.5W
A98E 12.8N 86.0W 14.8N 88.8W 15.8N 92.3W 16.1N 95.3W
LBAR 17.5N 84.3W 21.2N 83.1W 26.4N 79.3W 32.4N 67.6W
SHIP 61KTS 65KTS 61KTS 55KTS
DSHP 38KTS 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 81.7W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 81.1W DIRM12 = 312DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 10.3N LONM24 = 79.8W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 20NM
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#31 Postby TheEuropean » Thu Oct 27, 2005 2:20 am

Now it is BETA! NRL is showing it as Beta:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
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#32 Postby Cookiely » Thu Oct 27, 2005 4:51 am

Below is from the discussion on Beta.
HOWEVER...WE HAVE
NOT YET BEEN ABLE TO CONTACT NICARAGUA REGARDING THE ISSUANCE OF A
HURRICANE WATCH IN ADDITION TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
Duh! Nobody in the office to answer the phone. Bizaare.
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#33 Postby TheEuropean » Thu Oct 27, 2005 5:02 am

Is the Discussion going on in this thread or in the Beta-Thread as done on other storms? There is already a thread to T.S. Beta now:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=77777
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