Beta Advisories

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cycloneye
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Beta Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 26, 2005 8:13 pm

At 10 PM CDT the first advisorie.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX (AL262005) ON 20051027 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051027 0000 051027 1200 051028 0000 051028 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.0N 81.6W 11.9N 82.7W 12.6N 83.7W 13.3N 85.0W
BAMM 11.0N 81.6W 11.8N 82.6W 12.4N 83.6W 12.9N 84.6W
A98E 11.0N 81.6W 11.4N 82.7W 11.8N 84.0W 12.4N 85.4W
LBAR 11.0N 81.6W 12.1N 82.5W 13.5N 83.3W 15.5N 84.3W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 48KTS 54KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 48KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051029 0000 051030 0000 051031 0000 051101 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.9N 86.3W 14.0N 89.2W 13.7N 93.2W 13.6N 97.6W
BAMM 13.2N 85.9W 12.8N 89.1W 11.8N 93.8W 11.3N 98.7W
A98E 12.9N 87.3W 14.7N 91.0W 15.6N 95.0W 16.4N 98.2W
LBAR 17.6N 84.9W 21.7N 84.1W 25.7N 79.9W 30.8N 70.6W
SHIP 59KTS 60KTS 50KTS 41KTS
DSHP 29KTS 29KTS 19KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 81.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 10.2N LONM12 = 80.5W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 10.3N LONM24 = 79.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Last edited by cycloneye on Sun Oct 30, 2005 7:50 pm, edited 25 times in total.
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#2 Postby senorpepr » Wed Oct 26, 2005 9:42 pm

819
WTNT31 KNHC 270240
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS FOR CENTRAL AMERICA...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM
THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR
THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS OF
SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA ON THURSDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES... 155 KM...SOUTH OF SAN
ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 170 MILES... 270 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR.
A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE CHANCE TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER NICARAGUA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...11.1 N... 81.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

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#3 Postby senorpepr » Wed Oct 26, 2005 9:47 pm

620
WTNT41 KNHC 270245
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND COULD BE
ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 N MI FROM THE GIVEN POSITION. CONSEQUENTLY...THE
INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT ESTIMATED AT 315/03.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE TRAPPED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH AND ONLY A SLOW NORTHWEST MOTION TOWARD THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA IS ANTICIPATED. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE
WILL NEVER GET OUT THAT AREA BEFORE DISSIPATION INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. THIS IS VERY REALISTIC SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THE SLOW MOTION
OVER WARM WATERS AND LOW SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRENGTHENING
AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL
WHICH MAKES THE DEPRESSION A 94-KNOT HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER SAN ANDRES AND
PROVIDENCIA ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. WE WERE NOT SUCCESSFUL IN
CONTACTING THE COLOMBIAN WEATHER SERVICE TO COORDINATE THE
WARNINGS.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0300Z 11.1N 81.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 11.5N 82.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 12.5N 82.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 13.0N 83.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 13.0N 84.0W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 30/0000Z 13.0N 85.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW


$$

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#4 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 26, 2005 9:47 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005
0300Z THU OCT 27 2005

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM
THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR
THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS OF
SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 81.5W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 81.5W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 81.4W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 11.5N 82.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 12.5N 82.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 13.0N 83.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.0N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.0N 85.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 81.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

FORECASTER AVILA
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#5 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 26, 2005 9:48 pm

Image
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#6 Postby dhweather » Wed Oct 26, 2005 10:26 pm

Lets see..... beta, gamma, delta - hey the airline! ha ha ha
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#7 Postby hurricanefreak1988 » Wed Oct 26, 2005 11:52 pm

You know what's crazy? We were already blowing out the E-Pac (heck, I'm already making our banner for beating them right now), but now, it's turning into a blowout in the race between us and the West-Pac! That's unbelievable. The fans are going to start lining the court soon, ready to storm it at the start of 2006 and celebrate the biggest upset in the history of the tropics. 8-)
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#8 Postby Recurve » Thu Oct 27, 2005 1:35 am

Intent is to keep discussion in TD 26 comments, sat pics, models thread: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=77747
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#9 Postby Recurve » Thu Oct 27, 2005 2:02 am

000
WTNT31 KNHC 270555
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

..DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA....
..TORRENTIAL RAINS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA....

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST
OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO
GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER... AND ADJACENT
ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST OR
ABOUT 85 MILES... 140 KM... SOUTH OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT
150 MILES... 245 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH... 6 KM/HR.
A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA... COSTA RICA... AND NICARAGUA... WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...11.3 N... 81.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB


$$
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T.S. BETA Advisories - first advisory issued

#10 Postby TheEuropean » Thu Oct 27, 2005 2:24 am

First advisory at 5am EDT
Last edited by TheEuropean on Thu Oct 27, 2005 3:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#11 Postby TheEuropean » Thu Oct 27, 2005 3:58 am

000
WTNT21 KNHC 270850
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005
0900Z THU OCT 27 2005

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH IN ADDITION TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALREADY IN
EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST
OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO
GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT
ISLANDS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 81.8W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 81.8W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 81.7W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 11.8N 82.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 12.5N 82.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 12.8N 83.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 13.0N 83.6W...ON COAST OF NICARAGUA
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.0N 85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 81.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

FORECASTER KNABB
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#12 Postby TheEuropean » Thu Oct 27, 2005 4:00 am

000
WTNT31 KNHC 270855
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

...RECORD 23RD TROPICAL STORM OF SEASON FORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH IN ADDITION TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALREADY IN
EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST
OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO
GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT
ISLANDS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES... 125 KM... SOUTH OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 140
MILES... 230 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA... COSTA RICA... AND NICARAGUA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...11.4 N... 81.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#13 Postby TheEuropean » Thu Oct 27, 2005 4:08 am

000
WTNT41 KNHC 270900
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

AS OFTEN OCCURS AS A DEPRESSION EVOLVES INTO A TROPICAL STORM... THE
OUTER BANDS FROM LAST NIGHT HAVE DISSIPATED WHILE BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAVE CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNANIMOUSLY 35 KT...AND THEY ARE
ONLY THAT LOW DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
APPEARS TO CORRESPOND TO AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM...BUT THE WINDS
HAVE PROBABLY NOT YET CAUGHT UP TO THE CLOUD SIGNATURE. THE
DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT WINDS...
MAKING BETA THE RECORD-SETTING 23RD TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005
SEASON.

THE SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 5 KT IS BEING PROVIDED BY
WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW... IN BETWEEN A LARGE AND DEEP LAYER
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED A DISTANT 2000 N MI TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST ENOUGH RIDGING TO
DEVELOP IN PLACE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF TO
EVENTUALLY TURN BETA WESTWARD INTO NICARAGUA...BUT THERE IS
SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN THAT TURN WILL OCCUR. OVERALL THE
MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND NONE
OF THEM BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS KEPT ALONG THE SAME PATH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT SLOWED DOWN TO NUDGE TOWARD THE GUIDANCE.

OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING... WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 29 CELSIUS
AND VERY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BETA COULD BE
NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS IF IT HAS NOT YET MADE
LANDFALL... AND THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX BASED ON SHIPS
INDICATES NEARLY A 50/50 SHOT AT 25 KT OF STRENGTHENING DURING THE
FIRST 24 HOURS. THE GFDL FORECASTS EVEN MORE INTENSIFICATION...TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 36 HOURS. SINCE THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST KEEPS BETA OVER WATER LONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND GIVEN THE VERY BULLISH GUIDANCE...THE NEW OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD AND ANTICIPATES A HURRICANE
BY THE TIME OF LANDFALL ON THE NICARAGUAN COAST. FURTHER... SINCE
THE 36 HOUR FORECAST IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... IT IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITHIN 36 HOURS IN
THE AREAS ALREADY UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. HOWEVER...WE HAVE
NOT YET BEEN ABLE TO CONTACT NICARAGUA REGARDING THE ISSUANCE OF A
HURRICANE WATCH IN ADDITION TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0900Z 11.4N 81.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 11.8N 82.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 12.5N 82.6W 55 KT
36HR VT 28/1800Z 12.8N 83.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 13.0N 83.6W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 30/0600Z 13.0N 85.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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#14 Postby TheEuropean » Thu Oct 27, 2005 4:09 am

All advisories for T.S. Beta can be found here:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=77778
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#15 Postby george_r_1961 » Thu Oct 27, 2005 4:28 am

Another storm in an already incredible season :eek:
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#16 Postby P.K. » Thu Oct 27, 2005 6:02 am

WTNT41 KNHC 270900
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

AS OFTEN OCCURS AS A DEPRESSION EVOLVES INTO A TROPICAL STORM... THE
OUTER BANDS FROM LAST NIGHT HAVE DISSIPATED WHILE BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAVE CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNANIMOUSLY 35 KT...AND THEY ARE
ONLY THAT LOW DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
APPEARS TO CORRESPOND TO AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM...BUT THE WINDS
HAVE PROBABLY NOT YET CAUGHT UP TO THE CLOUD SIGNATURE. THE
DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT WINDS...
MAKING BETA THE RECORD-SETTING 23RD TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005
SEASON.

THE SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 5 KT IS BEING PROVIDED BY
WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW... IN BETWEEN A LARGE AND DEEP LAYER
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED A DISTANT 2000 N MI TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST ENOUGH RIDGING TO
DEVELOP IN PLACE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF TO
EVENTUALLY TURN BETA WESTWARD INTO NICARAGUA...BUT THERE IS
SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN THAT TURN WILL OCCUR. OVERALL THE
MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND NONE
OF THEM BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS KEPT ALONG THE SAME PATH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT SLOWED DOWN TO NUDGE TOWARD THE GUIDANCE.

OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING... WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 29 CELSIUS
AND VERY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BETA COULD BE
NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS IF IT HAS NOT YET MADE
LANDFALL... AND THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX BASED ON SHIPS
INDICATES NEARLY A 50/50 SHOT AT 25 KT OF STRENGTHENING DURING THE
FIRST 24 HOURS. THE GFDL FORECASTS EVEN MORE INTENSIFICATION...TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 36 HOURS. SINCE THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST KEEPS BETA OVER WATER LONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND GIVEN THE VERY BULLISH GUIDANCE...THE NEW OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD AND ANTICIPATES A HURRICANE
BY THE TIME OF LANDFALL ON THE NICARAGUAN COAST. FURTHER... SINCE
THE 36 HOUR FORECAST IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... IT IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITHIN 36 HOURS IN
THE AREAS ALREADY UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. HOWEVER...WE HAVE
NOT YET BEEN ABLE TO CONTACT NICARAGUA REGARDING THE ISSUANCE OF A
HURRICANE WATCH IN ADDITION TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0900Z 11.4N 81.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 11.8N 82.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 12.5N 82.6W 55 KT
36HR VT 28/1800Z 12.8N 83.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 13.0N 83.6W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 30/0600Z 13.0N 85.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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cycloneye
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#17 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 27, 2005 6:42 am

534
WTNT31 KNHC 271138
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

...BETA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST
OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO
GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT
ISLANDS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT 70
MILES... 115 KM... SOUTH OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 135
MILES... 220 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH... 6
KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA... COSTA RICA... AND NICARAGUA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...11.5 N... 81.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#18 Postby Brent » Thu Oct 27, 2005 9:39 am

Cat 2 before landfall... :eek:

TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005
1500Z THU OCT 27 2005

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS
A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 81.3W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 81.3W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 81.3W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 11.9N 81.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.4N 81.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.9N 81.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.3N 82.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.5N 83.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 13.5N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 13.0N 86.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 81.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#19 Postby Brent » Thu Oct 27, 2005 9:39 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

...TROPICAL STORM BETA STRENGTHENING AND RE-LOCATED EASTWARD...NEW
WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS
A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST OR ABOUT
75 MILES... 120 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT
175 MILES... 280 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE
CENTER OF BETA NEAR SAN ANDRES ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES
NEARBY.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...11.5 N... 81.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#20 Postby Brent » Thu Oct 27, 2005 9:42 am

A Sunday landfall now... this is going to be a very deadly one most likely.

Image
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