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Brent
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#21 Postby Brent » Thu Oct 27, 2005 9:51 am

TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BETA AS A SMALL BUT WELL ORGANIZED
TROPICAL STORM. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
WITH SOME OUTER BANDING IN BOTH THE EAST AND WEST QUADRANTS...WITH
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATING CLOUD TOPS TO -80C. A RECENT SSM/I
OVERPASS SHOWS AN SMALL EYEWALL FORMING UNDER THE CDO. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY.

THE CENTER OF BETA IS SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 350/2.
BETA IS DRIFTING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED
BY A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGESTS THAT AFTER A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH IN THE NEXT 24-36 HR...THE
TROUGH SHOULD LIFT A LITTLE NORTHWARD AND ALLOW WEAK RIDGING TO
BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD
CAUSE BETA TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT 24-36 HR...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD MOTION. ALL THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS EXCEPT THE CANADIAN...WHICH HAS HAD A NORTHWARD BIAS IN
SIMILAR SITUATIONS...FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. THE FORECAST TRACK NOW CALLS FOR
LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA IN 72 TO 96 HR.

WITH THE SMALL EYEWALL AND GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...
BETA APPEARS SET UP FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. INDEED...THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 56
PERCENT CHANCE OF 25 KT OR GREATER STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT INCREASE QUITE THAT
MUCH...BUT DOES SHOW SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 72
HR SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE GFDL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAY NEED TO
BE REVISED SIGNIFICANTLY UPWARD IN THE NEXT ADVISORY IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE. ONE POSSIBLE RESTRAINING FACTOR IS THAT THE WARM
WATER OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND THE
SLOW MOTION OF BETA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME UPWELLING OF COLD
WATER. HOWEVER...THE EFFECTS OF THIS MAY NOT BE FELT FOR 24 HR OR
MORE.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 11.5N 81.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 11.9N 81.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 12.4N 81.4W 65 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 12.9N 81.7W 75 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 13.3N 82.1W 80 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 13.5N 83.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 31/1200Z 13.5N 84.5W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 01/1200Z 13.0N 86.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
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#22 Postby Brent » Thu Oct 27, 2005 12:40 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

...TROPICAL STORM BETA STRENGTHENING AND RE-LOCATED EASTWARD...NEW
WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES
AND PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMIAN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST OR ABOUT 70
MILES... 115 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT
160 MILES... 260 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE
CENTER OF BETA NEAR SAN ANDRES ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES
NEARBY.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...11.6 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#23 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Oct 27, 2005 1:24 pm

Unbelievable :eek: .
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#24 Postby dhweather » Thu Oct 27, 2005 1:58 pm

Brent wrote:A Sunday landfall now... this is going to be a very deadly one most likely.




2005 seems to want all of the records, and one of the few it doesn't hold is greatest numbers in loss of life. Systems like Beta, unfortunately,
have the potential to cause a great loss of life. :cry:
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#25 Postby Brent » Thu Oct 27, 2005 3:34 pm

110 mph at landfall...

TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005
2100Z THU OCT 27 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES
AND PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA
RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 81.4W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 81.4W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 81.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 12.1N 81.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 12.6N 81.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 13.0N 82.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.3N 82.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.5N 83.5W...NEAR COAST
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 13.5N 85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 13.0N 87.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 81.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#26 Postby Brent » Thu Oct 27, 2005 3:34 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

...BETA DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES
AND PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA
RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST OR ABOUT
60 MILES... 95 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT
165 MILES... 265 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A SLOW
NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF BETA NEAR SAN
ANDRES LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
BETA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES
NEARBY.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS COSTA RICA...NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...
SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...11.7 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#27 Postby senorpepr » Thu Oct 27, 2005 3:41 pm

482
WTNT41 KNHC 272040
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

BETA REMAINS A SMALL AND WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM THIS
AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
PATTERN SEEN THIS MORNING HAS BECOME MORE OF A CURVED BAND
PATTERN...WITH INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWING TOPS OF -75C TO -80C. AN
AMSU OVERPASS AT 1547Z SHOWED A BANDING EYE UNDERNEATH THE
CONVECTIVE TOPS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM
TAFB...45 KT FROM SAB...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THIS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/3. BETA IS DRIFTING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT AFTER A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH IN
THE NEXT 24-36 HR...THE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT A LITTLE NORTHWARD AND
ALLOW A WEAK RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE BETA TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD
MOTION. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...
WITH THE GFS AND GFDL CALLING FOR A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TURN...AND THE UKMET AND NOGAPS CALLING FOR A MORE GRADUAL WESTWARD
TURN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE MODELS AND IS JUST
EAST AND NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT TWO
MODELS WHICH BRING BETA NORTHWARD TOWARD CUBA AND FLORIDA...LBAR
AND THE CANADIAN...HAVE SHOWN A NORTHWARD BIAS IN PREVIOUS SIMILAR
SITUATIONS. THEREFORE...WHILE NOT BEING RULED OUT AS POSSIBILITIES
THEY ARE BEING GIVEN LITTLE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME.

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...
WITH THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL
SHOWING A 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25 KT OR GREATER STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
THIS...MAKING BETA A HURRICANE IN JUST OVER 12 HR AND A 75 KT
SYSTEM IN 24 HR. ONE POSSIBLE RESTRAINING FACTOR IS THAT THE WARM
WATER OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND THE
SLOW MOTION OF BETA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME UPWELLING OF COLD
WATER. HOWEVER...THE EFFECTS OF THIS MAY NOT BE FELT FOR 24 HR OR
MORE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SLOWER DEVELOPMENT
RATE AFTER 24 HR BASED ON THIS POSSIBILITY...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT
BE ANY SURPRISE IF BETA GOT STRONGER AND BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE.
AFTER LANDFALL...BETA SHOULD WEAKEN..ESPECIALLY WHEN IT REACHES THE
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

MOST OF THE RAINFALL CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH BETA IS OFFSHORE.
ONCE THE STORM COMES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO BRING THE RAINS
ONSHORE...FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WILL BECOME SERIOUS THREATS.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 11.7N 81.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 12.1N 81.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 12.6N 81.6W 75 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 13.0N 82.0W 85 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 13.3N 82.5W 90 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 13.5N 83.5W 95 KT...NEAR COAST
96HR VT 31/1800Z 13.5N 85.0W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 01/1800Z 13.0N 87.0W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING


$$

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#28 Postby Brent » Thu Oct 27, 2005 6:43 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

...BETA CREEPING NORTHWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES
AND PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA
RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATER TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST OR ABOUT
50 MILES...85 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT
160 MILES... 255 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. A SLOW NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF BETA NEAR SAN ANDRES LATE
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
BETA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM
FROM THE CENTER MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES
NEARBY.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS COSTA RICA...NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...
SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...11.9 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#29 Postby Brent » Thu Oct 27, 2005 9:44 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

...BETA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD...BUT IS FORECAST TO TURN
WESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES
AND PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA
RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA EARLY FRIDAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES...55 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 160
MILES...260 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH ... 4 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A TURN
TO NORTHWEST AND WEST THEREAFTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BETA WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE ON
FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES
NEARBY.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS COSTA RICA...NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...
SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...12.1 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
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Brent
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#30 Postby Brent » Thu Oct 27, 2005 9:44 pm

TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005
0300Z FRI OCT 28 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES
AND PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA
RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA EARLY FRIDAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 81.4W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 25NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 81.4W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 81.3W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.5N 81.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.0N 81.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.5N 82.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.5N 85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 13.5N 86.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 13.5N 87.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 81.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

FORECASTER AVILA
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#31 Postby Brent » Thu Oct 27, 2005 9:45 pm

TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

BETA IS DEFINITELY NOT INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY TONIGHT. THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS ONLY A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS
ARE 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. SSM/I MICROWAVE DATA AT 2344Z CONTINUES
TO SHOW A HINT OF AN EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED MODESTLY TO 55 KNOTS. BETA IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL STORM
AND BASED ON SURFACE AND UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM SAN ANDRES
PROVIDED BY THE COLOMBIAN WEATHER SERVICE...THE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WIND RADII HAS BEEN REDUCED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
SURFACE WINDS AT SAN ANDRES NEAR 00Z WERE ONLY 11 KNOTS...AND THE
CENTER OF BETA IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 35 N MI FROM THAT LOCATION.
THESE WINDS WERE CONFIRMED BY THE OBSERVER ON THE ISLAND.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BETA TO
INTENSIFY STEADILY UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. IN FACT...THE
RELIABLE GFDL BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO 100 KNOTS AT LANDFALL AND SHIPS
TO 90 KNOTS.

BETA HAS CONTINUED CREEPING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 2 KNOTS. DESPITE THE
CURRENT NORTHWARD MOTION...THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT THAT
BETA WILL REMAIN STUCK IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN OR OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THIS HIGH HAS BEEN A VERY PERSISTENT FEATURE
AND HAS STEERED OTHER CYCLONES TOWARD FLORIDA THIS YEAR...BUT IN
THIS CASE IT WILL STEER THE CYCLONE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL NOT SAVE NICARAGUA AND OTHER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE CYCLONE. THE HIGH SHOULD FORCE BETA
WESTWARD TOWARD THE NICARAGUAN EAST COAST AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE
IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
THE GFDL. ONLY THE CANADIAN MODEL BRINGS THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD
TOWARD CUBA AND THE UK TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MOST LIKELY THESE
TWO MODELS WILL CHANGE THEIR TUNE IN THE NEXT RUN. WE SHALL SEE.

IF BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST VERIFY...BETA WILL LIKELY
BE A VERY SERIOUS HURRICANE PRIMARILY FOR NICARAGUA PRODUCING
CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE FROM BOTH WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS.

FORECASTER AVILA


ORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 12.1N 81.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 12.5N 81.6W 65 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 13.0N 81.8W 75 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 13.5N 82.5W 85 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 13.5N 83.5W 95 KT
72HR VT 31/0000Z 13.5N 85.0W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 01/0000Z 13.5N 86.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 02/0000Z 13.5N 87.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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#32 Postby Brent » Fri Oct 28, 2005 12:48 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

...BETA WOBBLING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO SAN
ANDRES...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES
AND PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA
RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATER THIS MORNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS
RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST OR
ABOUT 45 MILES...70 KM... SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND
ABOUT 175 MILES...285 KM... EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 4 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A SLOW MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS... WITH A POSSIBLE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEREAFTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES
NEARBY.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA... SAN ANDRES
...AND PROVIDENCIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...12.2 N... 81.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART
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Dr. Jonah Rainwater
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#33 Postby Dr. Jonah Rainwater » Fri Oct 28, 2005 3:46 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

...TROPICAL STORM BETA GETTING CLOSER TO SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA
AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES
AND PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA
RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 60 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 175
MILES... 285 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A SLOW MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS... WITH A POSSIBLE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEREAFTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES
NEARBY.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA... SAN ANDRES
...AND PROVIDENCIA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...12.3 N... 81.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#34 Postby mtm4319 » Fri Oct 28, 2005 4:55 am

000
WTNT41 KNHC 280903
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAD BEEN ON THE WANE... BUT DURING THE PAST
HOUR OR SO BETA HAS BEEN MAKING A SLIGHT COMEBACK. A STRONG BURST
OF DEEP CONVECTION... ALBEIT A SMALL AREA... HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND
TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -80C AND
COLDER. EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z REVEALED A
PRONOUNCED BUT SMALL MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE. HOWEVER... A 28/0110Z
SSMIS OVERPASS INDICATED THE EYE FEATURE HAD BEEN DISRUPTED BY SOME
EASTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW LAYER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65
KT FROM TAFB... T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB... AND T3.0/45 KT FROM AFWA. A
27/2300Z QUIKSCAT HI-RES OVERPASS ALSO SHOWED NO WIND VECTORS...
FLAGGED AND UNFLAGGED... HIGHER THAN 40 KT. HOWEVER... THE VERY
SMALL INNER CORE NOTED IN EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA WOULD LIKELY BE
UNDERSAMPLED BY QUIKSCAT. GIVEN THE DISRUPTION OF THE EYE FEATURE
...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT... WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS BEEN A STEADY 360/03 FOR THE PAST 14 HOURS...
AND THAT IS THE MOTION USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS LESS THAN STRAIGHTFORWARD. FIRST... A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 350 NMI NORTHEAST OF BETA HAS DEVELOPED SOME
IMPRESSIVE AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION... WHICH WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN THAT SYSTEM AND RESULT IN SOME POSSIBLE BINARY
INTERACTION IN THE SHORT TERM THAT THE 28/00Z NAM ALLUDED TO.
SECOND... THERE IS A DISTINCT BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL SUITE. THE
GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...GFS ENSEMBLE... AND ECMWF MODELS ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED ON A WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK IMMEDIATELY FROM THE
CURRENT POSITION. IN CONTRAST... THE UKMET...CANADIAN...
CLIPER...LBAR...AND NHC98 MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA
AND TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE FIRST GROUP APPEARS TO HAVE TO
MUCH RIDGE TO THE NORTH INITIALIZED... POSSIBLY DUE TO THE 00Z
HEIGHTS AT SAN ANDRES BEING TOO HIGH. THE 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASED
20 METERS BETWEEN 27/12Z AND 28/00Z...EVEN THOUGH BETA MOVED 30 NMI
CLOSER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GUNA AND GUNS MODELS.

SSTS ARE VERY WARM AT 29C AND HIGHER... AND THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST STEADY STRENGTHENING. THE
ONLY SLIGHT INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE VERTICAL SHEAR... WHICH IS
FORECAST TO IN CREWASE TO 15 KT BY 24 HOURS... BEFORE DECREASING TO
LESS THAN 10 KT BY 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... AND REMAINS ABOVE THE SHIPS
MODEL.

WIND RADII WERE DECREASED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT WINDS AND A
NORTHWEST 30-KT WIND REPORT AT 06Z FROM SHIP ZCAM4 LOCATED ABOUT
48 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 12.3N 81.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 12.8N 81.4W 65 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 13.4N 81.8W 75 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 13.8N 82.4W 85 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 14.1N 83.1W 90 KT
72HR VT 31/0600Z 14.5N 84.9W 35 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
96HR VT 01/0600Z 14.7N 86.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
120HR VT 02/0600Z 15.0N 88.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND

$$
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#35 Postby mtm4319 » Fri Oct 28, 2005 4:56 am

000
WTNT21 KNHC 280835
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005
0900Z FRI OCT 28 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES
AND PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA
RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 81.2W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE 15SE 15SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 25NE 40SE 40SW 25NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 25NE 40SE 40SW 25NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 81.2W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 81.2W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 12.8N 81.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 13.4N 81.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.8N 82.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.1N 83.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 14.5N 84.9W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 14.7N 86.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 15.0N 88.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 81.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
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#36 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 28, 2005 6:43 am

814
WTNT31 KNHC 281139
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

...TROPICAL STORM BETA GETTING CLOSER TO SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA
AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES
AND PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA
RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 60 KM... EAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 180 MILES...
290 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A SLOW MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS... WITH A POSSIBLE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEREAFTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...
75 KM FROM THE CENTER. A SHIP LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 58 MPH AT 5 AM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES
NEARBY.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA... SAN ANDRES
...AND PROVIDENCIA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...12.6 N... 81.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

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Brent
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#37 Postby Brent » Fri Oct 28, 2005 9:36 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

...BETA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES
AND PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA
RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATER TODAY.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM
LIMON EASTWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST OR ABOUT
45 MILES... 70 KM...NORTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT
185 MILES... 300 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF BETA NEAR PROVIDENCIA LATER
TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES
NEARBY.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA... SAN ANDRES
...AND PROVIDENCIA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...12.9 N... 81.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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Brent
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#38 Postby Brent » Fri Oct 28, 2005 9:37 am

TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005
1500Z FRI OCT 28 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES
AND PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA
RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATER TODAY.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM
LIMON EASTWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 81.2W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE 15SE 15SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 25NE 40SE 40SW 25NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 81.2W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 81.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.3N 81.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.9N 81.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.2N 82.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.6N 83.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.0N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 15.0N 87.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 15.5N 88.5W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 81.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
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#39 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 28, 2005 9:47 am

837
WTNT31 KNHC 281435
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

...BETA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES
AND PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA
RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATER TODAY.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM
LIMON EASTWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST OR ABOUT
45 MILES... 70 KM...NORTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT
185 MILES... 300 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF BETA NEAR PROVIDENCIA LATER
TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES
NEARBY.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA... SAN ANDRES
...AND PROVIDENCIA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...12.9 N... 81.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
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#40 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 28, 2005 9:53 am

WTNT41 KNHC 281452
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

BETA IS GENERATING STRONG CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH TOPS TO -86C.
HOWEVER...OVERPASSES FROM AMSR-E AT 0705Z AND SSM/I AT 1148Z
SUGGEST THE STORM HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT SHEARED...WITH THE CONVECTION
DISPLACED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THERE ARE HINTS OF
THIS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AS WELL. WHILE CIRRUS EAST OF BETA ARE
BLOWING TOWARD THE CENTER...ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY
OF WISCONSIN SHOW ONLY ABOUT 10 KT OF SHEAR...WHICH IF CORRECT DOES
NOT FULLY EXPLAIN THE APPARENT STRUCTURE. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB...55 KT FROM SAB...AND 45 KT FROM
AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF
THESE AND A 50 KT REPORT AT 0900Z FROM SHIPS ZCAM4 JUST SOUTH OF
THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE BETA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/4. BETA IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. RAWINSONDE DATA AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST HEIGHTS TO RISE IN THESE AREAS AFTER THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC IN 12-24 HR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN IS BUILDING WESTWARD. THIS
EVOLUTION SHOULD TURN BETA MORE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HR
AND MORE WESTWARD THEREAFTER. THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF
ALL CALL FOR A VERY SHARP TURN...WHILE THE UKMET AND CANADIAN CALL
FOR A MORE GRADUAL TURN. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A
LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND
MOTION...CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA IN 36-48
HR. THE NEW TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE UKMET BUT NORTH OF THE OVERALL
MODEL CONSENSUS.

IF BETA IS AS SHEARED AS THE MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS...THEN THE
SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION COULD BE SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THAT BEING SAID...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE SHEAR TO DECREASE
IN 12-18 HR...AND THE GFDL IS CALLING FOR BETA TO REACH 95 KT
BEFORE LANDFALL. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
CALL FOR BETA TO REACH CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND IT COULD DISSIPATE
FASTER THAN FORECAST OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

ONE OUTER RAINBAND IS CURRENTLY SPREADING ONSHORE IN NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. AS BETA GETS CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL
AMERICAN COAST...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS...FLOODS...AND MUDSLIDES
WILL INCREASE.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 12.9N 81.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 13.3N 81.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 13.9N 81.8W 75 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 14.2N 82.6W 85 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 14.6N 83.6W 80 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 31/1200Z 15.0N 85.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 01/1200Z 15.0N 87.0W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
120HR VT 02/1200Z 15.5N 88.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW


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