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#41 Postby Brent » Fri Oct 28, 2005 12:42 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

...BETA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND APPROACHING PROVIDENCIA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WARNINGS FOR SAN ANDRES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA
RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST OR ABOUT
20 MILES... 30 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA.
THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM...NORTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES
ISLAND AND ABOUT 190 MILES... 305 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS
NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF BETA NEAR PROVIDENCIA LATER
TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL ARRIVE IN BETA SHORTLY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES
NEARBY.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA... SAN ANDRES
...AND PROVIDENCIA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...13.1 N... 81.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#42 Postby superfly » Fri Oct 28, 2005 3:39 pm

Not real sure where they're getting 65MPH from. Recon supports 50-55MPH.
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#43 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Oct 28, 2005 3:45 pm

51 knots at .8 reduce is 46.9 mph...They could go between 45 to 50 mph.
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#44 Postby WindRunner » Fri Oct 28, 2005 3:46 pm

superfly wrote:Not real sure where they're getting 65MPH from. Recon supports 50-55MPH.


It's from the Dvorak estimates . . . but let's try to keep to the advisories in here.
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#45 Postby WindRunner » Fri Oct 28, 2005 3:53 pm

000
WTNT31 KNHC 282032
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

...CENTER OF BETA NEAR PROVIDENCIA...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

AT 5 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS
NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST OR JUST EAST OF THE
ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 70 MILES... 110 KM...
NORTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 160 MILES... 260 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM
FROM THE CENTER. REPORTS FROM PROVIDENICA RELAYED BY THE
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF COLOMBIA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM
WINDS ARE OCCURRING ON THE ISLAND.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ON PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES NEARBY. STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA... SAN ANDRES
...AND PROVIDENCIA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...13.3 N... 81.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#46 Postby WindRunner » Fri Oct 28, 2005 3:53 pm

000
WTNT21 KNHC 282035
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005
2100Z FRI OCT 28 2005

...CORRECTED DISPOSITION AT 96 AND 120 HR...

AT 5 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS
NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 81.1W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 81.1W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 81.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 13.8N 81.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.3N 82.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.6N 82.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.8N 83.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 15.0N 86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 15.0N 88.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 16.0N 89.5W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 81.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#47 Postby Brent » Fri Oct 28, 2005 6:42 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

...SUSTAINED 58 MPH WINDS IN THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA
FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST...NEAR OR
OVER THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 155 MILES...
250 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING BETWEEN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7
KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS MOTION...THE CENTER OF BETA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
NEAR OR OVER THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM
FROM THE CENTER. REPORTS FROM PROVIDENCIA RELAYED BY THE
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF COLOMBIA INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF
58 MPH....93 KM/HR WERE JUST RECORDED ON THE ISLAND...AND NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF ROOF DAMAGE.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ON PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES NEARBY. STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA... SAN ANDRES
...AND PROVIDENCIA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...13.4 N... 81.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#48 Postby Brent » Fri Oct 28, 2005 9:38 pm

TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005
0300Z SAT OCT 29 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA
FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z..THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA
PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 81.4W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 81.4W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 81.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.0N 81.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.5N 82.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 14.5N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.5N 86.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 14.5N 88.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 15.0N 90.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 81.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

FORECASTER AVILA
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#49 Postby Brent » Fri Oct 28, 2005 9:38 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

...BETA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...LASHING THE ISLAND OF
PROVIDENCIA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA
FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z..THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA
PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST JUST NORTH OF THE
ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. THIS IS ABOUT 155 MILES... 250 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER
AND ABOUT 135 MILES... 220 KM...EAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

BETA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH
... 7 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME SOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM
FROM THE CENTER. PROVIDENCIA HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING WINDS TO NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE FOR THE PAST HOUR OR SO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
STILL POSSIBLE ON PROVIDENCIA WHILE THE CENTER OF BETA IS NEARBY.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALLS WITH
TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA
...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...13.6 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD
...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#50 Postby Brent » Fri Oct 28, 2005 9:39 pm

TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN IN DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF COLOMBIA AND HAS BEEN RECEIVING WEATHER
DATA FROM SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. DATA FROM THE ISLAND OF
PROVIDENCIA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF BETA IS MOVING OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO THE ISLAND. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE AT 00Z WAS 995 MB AND
WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 30 KNOTS. THE WINDS WERE 50 TO 55
KNOTS ONE HOUR EARLIER. A NEW REPORT JUST RECEIVED FROM THE ISLAND
INDICATES THAT THE WINDS ARE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH. BETA IS
GOING THROUGH ITS USUAL UP AND DOWN CYCLE IN THE CONVECTION AND NOW
IT IS ON THE UPWARD TREND WITH A VENGEANCE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT BETA IS
ABOUT TO BECOME A HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
BETWEEN NOW AND THE TIME OF LANDFALL OVER NICARAGUA OR EASTERN
HONDURAS. THIS TREND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND WITH THE GFDL
MODEL WHICH TENACIOUSLY MAKES BETA A 95 TO 100-KT HURRICANE.

BETA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 4 KNOTS.
IT SEEMS THAT THE LEFT TURN INDICATED BY THE PARADE OF MODELS LED
BY THE GFDL IS BEGINNING. IT WOULD BE FOOLISH NOT TO FOLLOW THESE
ADVANCED MODELS...AND RIGHTFULLY SO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN TURNING BETA WESTWARD. THE CURRENT STEERING PATTERN WOULD
SUGGEST A NORTHWARD TRACK BUT THE CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS
NEW PATTERN WILL ULTIMATELY FORCE BETA TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD
CENTRAL AMERICA.

REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BRING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA...CAUSING CONSIDERABLE
DAMAGE...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. PLEASE BE
PREPARED FOR THIS EVENT.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 13.6N 81.4W 60 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 14.0N 81.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 14.5N 82.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 14.5N 83.5W 85 KT
48HR VT 31/0000Z 14.5N 84.5W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 01/0000Z 14.5N 86.5W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 02/0000Z 14.5N 88.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 03/0000Z 15.0N 90.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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#51 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 29, 2005 12:55 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005

...SLOW-MOVING BETA REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...CONTINUES TO LASH THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA
FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS
FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON
EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST... OR JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 150 MILES... 240
KM... SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER AND ABOUT 130 MILES... 210 KM...EAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH ... 6 KM/HR.
A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES BETA A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM
FROM THE CENTER. PROVIDENCIA ISLAND HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING WINDS TO
NEAR HURRICANE FORCE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. REPORTS FROM THE
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF COLOMBIA INDICATE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO
HOMES HAS OCCURRED ON THE ISLAND... AND ALL COMMUNICATIONS TO
PROVIDENCIA HAVE BEEN LOST.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
STILL POSSIBLE ON PROVIDENCIA WHILE THE CENTER OF BETA IS NEARBY.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

HURRICANE BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALLS WITH
TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA
...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...13.6 N... 81.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD
...NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#52 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 29, 2005 5:52 am

TCDAT1
HURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE BETA HAS
BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO THE 13TH HURRICANE OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC SEASON. A
29/0211Z SSMI OVERPASS THAT WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY REVEALED A VERY SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION... WHICH MEANS BETA WAS PROBABLY A HURRICANE AT 00Z. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND T4.0/65 KT FROM SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 320/03. THE CENTER
POSITION HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE UNTIL THE PAST HOUR WHEN AN
EYE FEATURE/PRONOUNCED WARM SPOT BECAME APPARENT IN INFRARED
IMAGERY NORTH OF PROVIDENCIA ISLAND. THE OVERALL MOTION...HOWEVER
...HAS BEEN VERY SLOW AND BETA MAY EVEN BE STATIONARY. THE COMPACT
HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY TRAPPED IN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THAT LIES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES... WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA... AND CENTRAL AMERICA. MOST OF THE NHC MODELS CONTINUE TO
OVERESTIMATE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND
INSIST ON DRIVING BETA WEST-SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HOWEVER... THEY
HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THIS MOTION FOR NEARLY 3 DAYS NOW AND IT
HASN'T HAPPENED YET. THE EXCEPTIONS HAVE BEEN THE UKMET... CANADIAN
AND SOME OF THE SIMPLER STATISTICAL MODELS... WHICH HAVE BEEN TAKING
BETA ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AN INTO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THOSE MODELS HAVE HAD
A NORTHWARD BIAS AND ALSO A FAST SPEED BIAS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS INDUCING THE
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BETA TO GRADUALLY BUILD
WESTWARD AND SLOWLY NUDGE THE HURRICANE INTO NICARAGUA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES
BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE MENTIONED EARLIER.

THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED AND THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW 10 KT BY 24 HOURS. THE
VERY WARM SSTS AND THE UNUSUALLY MOIST MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE CONDUCIVE TO BETA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... IF COLD UPWELLING
DOES NOT OCCUR BENEATH THE SLOW MOVING CYCLONE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
BETA COULD BECOME A STRONG CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA.

REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA... CAUSING CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE... AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. IN ADDITION... SOME
OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BETA MAY GET DRAWN
INTO A DEVELOPING WINTER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO... RESULTING IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS CUBA... FLORIDA... AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 13.7N 81.5W 70 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 14.1N 82.1W 80 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 14.3N 83.0W 90 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 14.4N 83.9W 50 KT...INLAND NERN NICARAGUA
48HR VT 31/0600Z 14.4N 84.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
72HR VT 01/0600Z 14.4N 86.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
96HR VT 02/0600Z 14.5N 88.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
120HR VT 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

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#53 Postby dixiebreeze » Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:32 am

Beta is looking awesome this morning. Someone is putting crazy data in the computers. The UKMET seems to be the only one that has a handle on the track.
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#54 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:44 am

806
WTNT31 KNHC 291141
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005

...SLOW-MOVING HURRICANE BETA CONTINUES TO BATTER PROVIDENCIA ISLAND
WITH DAMAGING WINDS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL... AND HIGH SURF...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS
FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON
EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...
55 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PROVIDENCIA ISLAND. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT
130 MILES... 210 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS AND ABOUT
120 MILES... 195 KM...EAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... SINCE STEERING
CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK... SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE... AND BETA COULD EVEN BECOME STATIONARY AT TIMES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BETA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND BETA COULD
BECOME A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 50 MILES... 85 KM. REPORTS FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF
COLOMBIA CONTINUE TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE HAS OCCURRED TO
HOMES ON PROVIDENCIA... AND THERE ARE STILL NO COMMUNICATIONS WITH
RESIDENTS ON THE ISLAND.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
STILL POSSIBLE ON PROVIDENCIA WHILE THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA IS
NEARBY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

HURRICANE BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH
TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA
...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS MAY EXCEED 25 INCHES ON
PROVIDENCIA ISLAND.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...13.8 N... 81.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#55 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 29, 2005 9:37 am

HURRICANE BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005
1500Z SAT OCT 29 2005

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA
PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUDING
LA CEIBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 81.7W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 81.7W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 81.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.2N 82.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.4N 83.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 14.4N 84.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 14.4N 85.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.5N 87.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 14.5N 89.0W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 81.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#56 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 29, 2005 9:37 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005

...BETA STRENGTHENING...CENTER MOVING AWAY FROM PROVIDENCIA...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA
PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUDING
LA CEIBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...
75 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. THIS IS ALSO
ABOUT 125 MILES... 205 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON
THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT 115 MILES... 185 KM...EAST
OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE
CENTER OF BETA NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA AND THE
NEARBY ISLANDS EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BETA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BETA
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN
NICARAGUA...AND THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 60 MILES... 95 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE FLOODING ON
PROVIDENCIA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
CENTER OF BETA MOVES AWAY.

HURRICANE BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH
TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA
...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
25 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...13.9 N... 81.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#57 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 29, 2005 9:37 am

HURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005

AN 1140Z TRMM OVERPASS SHOWS THAT BETA HAS A PINHOLE EYE UNDERNEATH
ITS CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WHICH HAS CONVECTIVE TOPS OF -80C JUST
EAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM
TAFB...65 KT FROM SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THESE AND ON
THE EYE SIZE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 320/3...AND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BETA
MAY BE MOVING A LITTLE LEFT OF THAT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
YESTERDAY HAS MOVED INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND RAWINSONDE DATA SHOWING RISING PRESSURES BEHIND THE TROUGH.
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR 24-36
HR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE BETA TO TURN MORE WESTWARD ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE NARROW BUT STRENGTHENING RIDGE. WHILE THERE CONTINUES
TO BE SPREAD BETWEEN THE MORE NORTHWARD UKMET AND THE MORE
SOUTHWARD GFS...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT BETA WILL MAKE
LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HR IN EASTERN OR NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...CALLING
FOR A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN DURING THE FIRST 24 HR AND A WESTWARD
MOTION ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS THEREAFTER. THE NEW TRACK IS
JUST NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND A BIT SLOWER.

ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT THE
EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND THE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL IS SHOWING
A 62 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25 KT OR MORE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
24 HR. CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS INCREASED BY THE PRESENCE
OF THE PINHOLE EYE. BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL BRING BETA TO 95 KT BY
LANDFALL...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THAT. HOWEVER...
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT BETA WILL GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST
AND MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. AFTER LANDFALL...BETA
SHOULD WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA.

REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...CAUSING CONSIDERABLE
DAMAGE...AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. IN
ADDITION...SOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BETA
MAY GET DRAWN INTO A DEVELOPING WINTER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 13.9N 81.7W 75 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 14.2N 82.4W 85 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 14.4N 83.3W 95 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 31/0000Z 14.4N 84.4W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 31/1200Z 14.4N 85.7W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 01/1200Z 14.5N 87.5W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
96HR VT 02/1200Z 14.5N 89.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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#58 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 29, 2005 12:40 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005

...BETA NOW MOVING WESTWARD AND CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUDING
LA CEIBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...
105 KM...NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. THIS IS ALSO
ABOUT 100 MILES... 165 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON
THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT 85 MILES... 135 KM...EAST
OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH... 8 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF
BETA NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA AND THE NEARBY
ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...145 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BETA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BETA
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN
NICARAGUA...AND THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 60 MILES... 95 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE FLOODING ON
PROVIDENCIA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
CENTER OF BETA MOVES AWAY.

HURRICANE BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH
TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA
...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
25 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...13.9 N... 82.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#59 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 29, 2005 3:33 pm

HURRICANE BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005
2100Z SAT OCT 29 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS...AND FOR THE
ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUDING
LA CEIBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 82.3W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 85NE 85SE 85SW 85NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 82.3W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 82.1W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.9N 83.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.0N 84.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 14.0N 85.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 14.2N 86.4W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.5N 88.0W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 82.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#60 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 29, 2005 3:34 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005

...BETA MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS...AND FOR THE
ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUDING
LA CEIBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...
165 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER AND ABOUT 75 MILES... 120 KM...EAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF BETA NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF NICARAGUA AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BETA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL IN NICARAGUA.
BETA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...AND THERE IS
A CHANCE IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE MAJOR HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 60 MILES... 95 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED FROM RECENT REPORTS
REPORTED OF AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE FLOODING ON
PROVIDENCIA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF BETA
MOVES AWAY.

HURRICANE BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH
TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA
...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
25 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...13.8 N... 82.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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