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Brent
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#61 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 29, 2005 3:34 pm

HURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING BETA HAVE FOUND MAXIMUM 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF
77 KT JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED
FROM THE AIRCRAFT DROPSONDES IS 979 MB...AND A 10 N MI WIDE EYE IS
PRESENT. THE EYE HAS BEEN INTERMITTENTLY SEEN IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE EYE AT
THIS TIME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 80 KT BASED ON A COMBINATION
OF AIRCRAFT DATA AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

BETA HAS SWUNG TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST 6-12 HR AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW 280/4. AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HR UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER
LAND. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSTION AND MOTION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE GFS...GFDL...AND GFDN WANT TO TAKE BETA WEST OF SOUTH INTO
THE PACIFIC. GIVEN THAT THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO TURN
BETA WESTWARD...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THESE
MODELS...BEING JUST NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY SOMEWHAT ASYMMETRIC...THE
OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE HURRICANE IS IMPROVING. WITH
THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND THE SMALL EYE...THERE IS STILL A GOOD
CHANCE OF A BURST OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. THE
GFDL MAKES BETA A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 12-18 HR...AND IT SEEMS LIKELY
THAT WINDS WILL REACH 95-105 KT BEFORE LANDFALL. BETA SHOULD
WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF HONDURAS IN 72-96 HR.

REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...CAUSING CONSIDERABLE
DAMAGE...AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. IN
ADDITION...SOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BETA
MAY GET DRAWN INTO A DEVELOPING WINTER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 13.8N 82.3W 80 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 13.9N 83.0W 90 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 14.0N 84.1W 80 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 31/0600Z 14.0N 85.3W 40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 31/1800Z 14.2N 86.4W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
72HR VT 01/1800Z 14.5N 88.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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#62 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:47 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005

...CORE OF BETA GRADUALLY NEARING THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA...
WEATHER EXPECTED TO WORSEN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUDING
LA CEIBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...
155 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/
HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF HURRICANE BETA NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF NICARAGUA AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BETA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL IN
NICARAGUA. BETA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
AND THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE MAJOR
HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 60 MILES... 95 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE FLOODING ON
PROVIDENCIA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF BETA
MOVES AWAY.

HURRICANE BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH
TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA
...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
25 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...13.8 N... 82.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#63 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 29, 2005 9:44 pm

Major hurricane at landfall

HURRICANE BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005
0300Z SUN OCT 30 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUDING
LA CEIBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 82.8W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 85NE 85SE 85SW 85NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 82.8W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 82.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.5N 83.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.7N 84.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.7N 86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.7N 87.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.0N 88.0W...DISSIPATED
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 82.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

FORECASTER AVILA
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#64 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 29, 2005 9:45 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005

...HURRICANE BETA HEADING FOR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH 105 MPH
WINDS...COULD BECOME STRONGER...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUDING
LA CEIBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...150
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/
HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT 45 MILES...75 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS TRACK WILL BRING THE CORE OF BETA NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA
EARLY SUNDAY. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE ARE ALREADY
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA

SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BETA IS
NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THERE IS
A CHANCE IT COULD BECOME A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE MAJOR HURRICANE
BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 60 MILES... 95 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 17 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

HURRICANE BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH
TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR SAN ANDRES AND
PROVIDENCIA WHERE ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 25
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...13.7 N... 82.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#65 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 29, 2005 9:46 pm

HURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BETA IS CURRENTLY
INTENSIFYING AND BECOMING DANGEROUS. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 5.0
ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND THE OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE ON THE UPWARD
TREND. IT APPEARS THAT BETA HAS A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY
DEEP CIRCULAR CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 90 KNOTS AND THERE IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FOR BETA TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY TO CATEGORY 3 STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL IN NICARAGUA EARLY
SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD MOTION IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND THIS TURN
WAS BRILLIANTLY FORECAST BY THE GFDL AND BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS. NOW THAT BETA IS MOVING WESTWARD OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST
AT 4 TO 5 KNOTS...IT IS MORE CERTAIN THAT THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY
TRAPPED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE.
THIS STEERING PATTERN CALLS FOR A CONTINUATION OF A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION.

REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...CAUSING CONSIDERABLE
DAMAGE...AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. EVEN
WHEN BETA MOVES INLAND AND BECOMES A WEAKENING CYCLONE...IT COULD
STILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS.

SOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BETA MAY GET
DRAWN INTO A DEVELOPING WINTER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 13.7N 82.8W 90 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 13.5N 83.6W 100 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 31/0000Z 13.7N 84.7W 60 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 31/1200Z 13.7N 86.0W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 01/0000Z 13.7N 87.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 02/0000Z 14.0N 88.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATED
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#66 Postby caribepr » Sat Oct 29, 2005 10:56 pm

Brent wrote:HURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BETA IS CURRENTLY
INTENSIFYING AND BECOMING DANGEROUS. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 5.0
ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND THE OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE ON THE UPWARD
TREND. IT APPEARS THAT BETA HAS A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY
DEEP CIRCULAR CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 90 KNOTS AND THERE IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FOR BETA TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY TO CATEGORY 3 STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL IN NICARAGUA EARLY
SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD MOTION IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND THIS TURN
WAS BRILLIANTLY FORECAST BY THE GFDL AND BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS. NOW THAT BETA IS MOVING WESTWARD OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST
AT 4 TO 5 KNOTS...IT IS MORE CERTAIN THAT THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY
TRAPPED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE.
THIS STEERING PATTERN CALLS FOR A CONTINUATION OF A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION.

REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...CAUSING CONSIDERABLE
DAMAGE...AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. EVEN
WHEN BETA MOVES INLAND AND BECOMES A WEAKENING CYCLONE...IT COULD
STILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS.

SOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BETA MAY GET
DRAWN INTO A DEVELOPING WINTER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 13.7N 82.8W 90 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 13.5N 83.6W 100 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 31/0000Z 13.7N 84.7W 60 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 31/1200Z 13.7N 86.0W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 01/0000Z 13.7N 87.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 02/0000Z 14.0N 88.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATED


Maybe it's just me, but in an unprecedented season, this was one of the more strange (not bad! just...personal? strange? wonderful?) discussions I've seen among a few that rate right up there - An Avila Fan
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#67 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 30, 2005 12:58 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM EST SUN OCT 30 2005

...HURRICANE BETA CLOSE TO CATEGORY THREE STRENGTH AS THE EYE NEARS
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUDING
LA CEIBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY HAVE BEEN RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 AM EST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...190
KM...SOUTH OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER
AND ABOUT 55 MILES...85 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF BETA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE ARE ALREADY IMPACTING MANY
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NICARAGUA.

SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BETA IS
A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THERE IS
A CHANCE IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 60 MILES... 95 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 17 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

HURRICANE BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH
TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR SAN ANDRES AND
PROVIDENCIA WHERE ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 25
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1 AM EST POSITION...13.3 N... 83.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 AM EST.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#68 Postby P.K. » Sun Oct 30, 2005 4:04 am

100kts

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SUN OCT 30 2005

THE EYE BECAME MORE CLEARLY DEFINED IN GOES INFRARED IMAGERY
OVERNIGHT AND AT 06Z WAS SURROUNDED BY A SOLID RING OF VERY DEEP
CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C. THE EYE IS SO SMALL...
HOWEVER... THAT SSMI IMAGERY FROM A 29/0156Z OVERPASS BARELY
RESOLVED IT. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
CLASSIFYING AGENCIES AT 06Z INCREASED TO T5.5/102 KT. SINCE THAT
TIME THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT... BUT THE EYE IS STILL
DISCERNIBLE. THERE IS NOT ANY OBVIOUS REASON WHY THE INTENSITY WAS
NOT 100 KT AT 06Z... AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ALSO SET TO 100
KT SINCE THE WINDS MIGHT NOT YET HAVE DECREASED IN RESPONSE TO THE
VERY RECENT WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION. BETA IS THE EIGHTH MAJOR
HURRICANE OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC SEASON... ALTHOUGH GIVEN CURRENT
TRENDS IT COULD WEAKEN AND REACH THE COASTLINE OF NICARAGUA AS A
CATEGORY TWO. THIS SMALL HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AMERICA.

A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 7 KT HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVERNIGHT... AND THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ANY REASON WHY BETA WILL
SLOW DOWN SOON... SO LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA IS
IMMINENT. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BRING THE CENTER OF BETA
ACROSS NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN FORECAST
AT LEAST A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EMERGE INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. SINCE BETA IS SUCH A SMALL HURRICANE AND THE
TERRAIN OF NICARAGUA SO RUGGED... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL
FOR THE DEPRESSION TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS OR LESS AND FOR THE
REMNANT LOW TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE EASTERN PACIFIC. IT
IS POSSIBLE... HOWEVER... THAT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF BETA IN A FEW
DAYS COULD AT SOME POINT LEAD TO REGENERATION IN THE PACIFIC.

BETA WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA... PRIMARILY NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS... LIKELY LEADING TO
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES WHICH COULD CAUSE
CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE. THE TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD CONTINUE WELL
INLAND AND MANY HOURS AFTER LANDFALL... EVEN AFTER THE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH BETA WEAKEN.

SOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BETA COULD BE
DRAWN INTO A DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0900Z 13.0N 83.4W 100 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 12.7N 84.3W 60 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 31/0600Z 12.5N 85.6W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
36HR VT 31/1800Z 12.4N 86.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTNT31 KNHC 300851
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SUN OCT 30 2005

...HURRICANE BETA REACHES CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY WITH 115 MPH
WINDS JUST OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...
...CENTER EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUDING
LA CEIBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY HAVE BEEN RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 AM EST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...
225 KM... SOUTH OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER AND ABOUT 70 MILES... 110 KM...SOUTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND THEN PROCEED INLAND LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BETA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE
BEFORE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF NICARAGUA... AND
BETA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE THRESHOLD BETWEEN
CATEGORY TWO AND THREE INTENSITY. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST
AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

ALTHOUGH POWERFUL... BETA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95
KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 17 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

HURRICANE BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH
TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL 1
TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR SAN ANDRES AND
PROVIDENCIA WHERE ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 25
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...13.0 N... 83.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM
EST.

FORECASTER KNABB

-----------------------------------------------------------------

WTNT21 KNHC 300849
TCMAT1
HURRICANE BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005
0900Z SUN OCT 30 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUDING
LA CEIBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY HAVE BEEN RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 83.4W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 83.4W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 83.1W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.7N 84.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 12.5N 85.6W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 12.4N 86.8W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 83.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

FORECASTER KNABB
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#69 Postby mtm4319 » Sun Oct 30, 2005 7:00 am

Beta couldn't quite stay long enough as a category 3 to make a major landfall in Nicaragua.
=======================

Hurricane Beta Intermediate Advisory Number 14a


Statement as of 7:00 am EST on October 30, 2005



...Hurricane Beta about to make landfall in Nicaragua...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the eastern coast of
Nicaragua from Bluefields northward to Cabo Gracias a Dios near the
Nicaragua/Honduras border...and adjacent islands. A Hurricane
Warning also remains in effect for the northeastern coast of
Honduras from Punta patuca to Cabo Gracias a Dios.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the border
with Costa Rica.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the northeastern coast
of Honduras from Limon eastward to west of Punta patuca...including
la Ceiba.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Hurricane Beta was located near
latitude 12.9 north... longitude 83.5 west or about 145 miles...
235 km... south of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras
border. This position is within a few miles of the coast of
Nicaragua near La Barra.

Beta is moving toward the southwest near 8 mph... 13 km/hr. Beta is
expected to moving inland during the next hour or so...and a
general motion inland to the west-southwest is expected during the
next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph...175 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Beta is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Steady weakening is forecast after the center moves inland.

Although powerful... Beta is a small hurricane. Hurricane force
winds extend outward up to 15 miles... 30 km... from the center...
and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95
km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb...28.50 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 12 to 17 feet above normal tide levels is
possible along the eastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north
of where the center makes landfall.

Hurricane Beta is expected to produce torrential rainfall with
totals of 10 to 15 inches across Nicaragua and eastern Honduras...
with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches possible. Additional 1
to 2 inch rainfall amounts are forecast for San Andres and
Providencia where isolated storm total amounts could approach 25
inches.

Repeating the 7 am EST position...12.9 N... 83.5 W. Movement
toward...southwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...110 mph. Minimum central pressure... 965 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 10 am EST.

Forecaster Franklin


$$
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#70 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 30, 2005 8:40 am

000
WTNT61 KNHC 301307
TCUAT1
HURRICANE BETA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EST SUN OCT 30 2005
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HURRICANE BETA MADE LANDFALL NEAR LA
BARRA NICARAGUA AT ABOUT 7 AM EST THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 105
MPH...OR CATEGORY TWO ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#71 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 30, 2005 9:36 am

HURRICANE BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005
1500Z SUN OCT 30 2005

AT 10 AM EST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR HONDURAS.

AT 10 AM EST...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF
BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 83.8W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 83.8W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 83.5W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 12.5N 84.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 12.2N 86.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 83.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#72 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 30, 2005 9:36 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN OCT 30 2005

...BETA MOVING INLAND AND WEAKENING...BUT RAINFALL THREAT
CONTINUES...

AT 10 AM EST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR HONDURAS.

AT 10 AM EST...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF
BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR INLAND ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM... NORTH OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR. A
GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THIS TRACK WILL TAKE THE CENTER FARTHER INLAND OVER
NICARAGUA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BETA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. BETA IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DURING
THE DAY TODAY...AND THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER
NICARAGUA BY TOMORROW.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 60 MILES... 95 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10
TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS... WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN SAN ANDRES AND
PROVIDENCIA...WHERE ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 10 AM EST POSITION...12.7 N... 83.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM EST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#73 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 30, 2005 9:37 am

HURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN OCT 30 2005

CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WERE RAPIDLY WARMING IN THE HOURS JUST BEFORE
BETA MADE LANDFALL NEAR 12Z THIS MORNING. THE LANDFALL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE WAS 90 KT...OR CATEGORY TWO...BASED ON A DATA-T DVORAK
NUMBER OF 5.0 FROM TAFB AT 1115Z. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
HURRICANE...BETA SHOULD WEAKEN VERY RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES FARTHER
INLAND...AND THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE 24
HOURS OR SO IT WILL SPEND OVER LAND. HOWEVER...IN THE UNLIKELY
EVENT THAT BETA REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT ITS OVERLAND
PASSAGE...IT WOULD RETAIN ITS NAME IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
BASIN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 235/6. BETA HAS MOVED PAST A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.

EVEN THOUGH BETA IS WEAKENING...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS WILL
CONTINUE OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 12.7N 83.8W 80 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 31/0000Z 12.5N 84.7W 45 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 31/1200Z 12.2N 86.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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#74 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 30, 2005 12:44 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM EST SUN OCT 30 2005

...BETA SPREADING RAINS OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF
BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA. THESE WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM EST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR INLAND ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM... NORTH OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR. A
GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THIS TRACK WILL TAKE THE CENTER FARTHER INLAND OVER
NICARAGUA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND ARE NOW ESTIMATED
NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BETA IS A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. BETA IS EXPECTED WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE OVER NICARAGUA BY TOMORROW.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 60 MILES... 95 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10
TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS... WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN SAN ANDRES AND
PROVIDENCIA...WHERE ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 1 PM EST POSITION...12.7 N... 84.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM EST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#75 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 30, 2005 3:33 pm

TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005
2100Z SUN OCT 30 2005

AT 4 PM EST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ADJUSTED ITS
WARNINGS...DISCONTINUING THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM BLUEFIELDS
NORTHWARD...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS.
THESE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO PUERTO CABEZAS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 84.4W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 70 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 84.4W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 84.1W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 12.2N 85.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 84.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#76 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 30, 2005 3:33 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SUN OCT 30 2005

...BETA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...

AT 4 PM EST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ADJUSTED ITS
WARNINGS...DISCONTINUING THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM BLUEFIELDS
NORTHWARD...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS.
THESE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO PUERTO CABEZAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM EST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES... 100 KM... NORTHWEST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A WEST TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CIRCULATION
DISSIPATES OVER WESTERN NICARAGUA ON MONDAY. THE REMNANTS OF BETA
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND BETA SHOULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVERNIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

HURRICANE BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10
TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS... WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EL SALVADOR AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN HONDURAS.

REPEATING THE 4 PM EST POSITION...12.7 N... 84.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM EST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#77 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 30, 2005 3:34 pm

TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SUN OCT 30 2005

BETA CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATED TO BE 260/6. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST
OF BETA SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A PATH A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST
UNTIL THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN
NICARAGUA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME REGENERATION
AFTER THE REMNANTS OF BETA ENTER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN
TOMORROW.

EVEN THOUGH BETA IS WEAKENING...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS WILL
CONTINUE OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...AND THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 12.7N 84.4W 55 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 31/0600Z 12.2N 85.7W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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#78 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 30, 2005 6:51 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EST SUN OCT 30 2005

...BETA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN INLAND OVER NICARAGUA...COASTAL WARNINGS
DISCONTINUED...

AT 7 PM EST...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL COASTAL WARNINGS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM EST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST OR ABOUT 85
MILES... 135 KM... NORTHWEST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A WESTWARD
TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CIRCULATION
DISSIPATES OVER WESTERN NICARAGUA ON MONDAY. THE REMNANTS OF BETA
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...INLAND OVER A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
CENTER. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND BETA SHOULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN A FEW HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
...55 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES ACROSS NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS... WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EL SALVADOR AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN HONDURAS.

REPEATING THE 7 PM EST POSITION...12.7 N... 84.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 PM EST.

FORECASTER PASCH
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#79 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 30, 2005 7:49 pm

Brent I will take the sticky out as it is nearing the end in terms of advisories.
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#80 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 30, 2005 10:01 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN OCT 30 2005

...BETA DISSIPATING OVER NICARAGUA...

AT 10 PM EST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BETA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT
70 MILES... 115 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THIS WOULD TAKE THE REMNANTS OF BETA INTO THE EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 25 MPH... 35
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND BETA IS DISSIPATING.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

THE REMNANTS OF BETA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...
HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 25
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 10 PM EST POSITION...12.7 N... 85.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 25 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON BETA.

FORECASTER PASCH
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