T.S. BETA Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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TheEuropean
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T.S. BETA Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#1 Postby TheEuropean » Thu Oct 27, 2005 2:24 am

Now it is BETA, first advisory at 5am

<IMG SRC="http://www.saevert.de/bilder/wzforum/051027twentysix1.jpg">

May become a CAT1 shortly before landfall?
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#2 Postby TheEuropean » Thu Oct 27, 2005 5:21 am

Beta is becoming better organized. It's a small storm, but IMHO outflow on the soutern side of the storm is improving. CAT1 tomorrow evening or earlier?
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#3 Postby Cookiely » Thu Oct 27, 2005 5:27 am

TheEuropean wrote:Beta is becoming better organized. It's a small storm, but IMHO outflow on the soutern side of the storm is improving. CAT1 tomorrow evening or earlier?

I agree. He-She-It is looking good to be a strong Cat 1 at landfall.
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#4 Postby beachbum_al » Thu Oct 27, 2005 5:50 am

See what happens when I go to bed. First it was a TD and this morning we have Beta. So where is Beta headed for?

Also does the UKMET see something different than the other models?

Image
off of website http://www.crownweather.com/tropical
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#5 Postby O Town » Thu Oct 27, 2005 6:02 am

Nothing for us to worry about it looks like, just another named storm to put under our 2005 hurricane season belts.

Image
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#6 Postby docjoe » Thu Oct 27, 2005 7:07 am

With Beta now here we are averaging a named storm every 6.47 days thus far this season....amazing!!

docjoe
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#7 Postby johngaltfla » Thu Oct 27, 2005 7:11 am

docjoe wrote:With Beta now here we are averaging a named storm every 6.47 days thus far this season....amazing!!

docjoe


:eek:
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#8 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 27, 2005 7:25 am

27/1145 UTC 10.9N 81.4W T3.0/3.0 BETA


Beta a little more stronger 45kts according to SSD dvorak sat estimates.
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#9 Postby PhillyWX » Thu Oct 27, 2005 7:26 am

docjoe wrote:With Beta now here we are averaging a named storm every 6.47 days thus far this season....amazing!!

docjoe


OMG
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#10 Postby Michael06 » Thu Oct 27, 2005 7:38 am

Is the LBAR a very reliable tropical model?
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#11 Postby superfly » Thu Oct 27, 2005 7:48 am

Does the convective spinoff to the NE of Beta have any chance of forming something?
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#12 Postby Aquawind » Thu Oct 27, 2005 7:49 am

Michael06 wrote:Is the LBAR a very reliable tropical model?


NO... Thank Goodness..

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=77706

Paul
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#13 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 27, 2005 7:52 am

TROPICAL STORM BETA (AL262005) ON 20051027 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051027 1200 051028 0000 051028 1200 051029 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.4N 81.3W 12.6N 82.0W 13.8N 82.8W 15.0N 83.6W
BAMM 11.4N 81.3W 12.4N 81.9W 13.4N 82.6W 14.3N 83.3W
A98E 11.4N 81.3W 12.0N 81.6W 12.6N 82.3W 13.3N 83.0W
LBAR 11.4N 81.3W 12.4N 81.7W 14.1N 82.4W 16.2N 83.4W
SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 50KTS 58KTS
DSHP 35KTS 43KTS 50KTS 58KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051029 1200 051030 1200 051031 1200 051101 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.7N 84.3W 15.6N 86.3W 15.2N 89.5W 15.1N 92.6W
BAMM 14.8N 84.1W 14.4N 86.5W 13.4N 90.2W 13.1N 94.1W
A98E 14.4N 83.6W 17.1N 84.9W 18.7N 85.8W 19.7N 85.1W
LBAR 18.3N 84.1W 22.4N 83.2W 28.2N 79.3W 33.3N 67.2W
SHIP 64KTS 69KTS 66KTS 58KTS
DSHP 64KTS 33KTS 27KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.4N LONCUR = 81.3W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 81.2W DIRM12 = 334DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 10.2N LONM24 = 80.5W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 50NM


12:00z Models.
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#14 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Thu Oct 27, 2005 7:56 am

man, season still going. We will have gamma soon.
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#15 Postby O Town » Thu Oct 27, 2005 8:05 am

Isn't there a D in the greek alphabet? Delta? Or do they not go in that order?
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#16 Postby gtalum » Thu Oct 27, 2005 8:07 am

Alpha
Beta
Gamma
Delta
Epsilon
Zeta
Eta
Theta
Iota
Kappa
Lambda
Mu
Nu
Xi
Omicron
Pi
Rho
Sigma
Tau
Upsilon
Phi
Chi
Psi
Omega

And people said being in a fraternity was a waste of time. :lol:
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#17 Postby EverythingIsEverything » Thu Oct 27, 2005 8:15 am

Nooooo!, Not Again! Geesh.
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#18 Postby HurricaneGirl » Thu Oct 27, 2005 8:17 am

:eek: Holy Crap!! :eek: We have another one!
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#19 Postby O Town » Thu Oct 27, 2005 8:18 am

Thanks gtalum. Only the first 2 seems to be anything like our alphabet. I think I will save those, but hopefully I won't need to know next season. I can't believe we may actually get to Delta, it seems like we may get 2 more storms, at least. Really unbelievable.
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#20 Postby no advance » Thu Oct 27, 2005 8:24 am

Wait till 11am I think you will see a north movement. It is a beautiful Thur. Have a nice day.
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