T.S. BETA Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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WxGuy1
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#141 Postby WxGuy1 » Fri Oct 28, 2005 2:25 pm

boca_chris wrote:I don't have a good feeling about beta :eek:


Please tell me it's NOT because of the LBAR or NHCA98E "models"! The NHCA98E, is a statistical, similar to CLIPER (which stands for CLImatology and PERsistance). The LBAR is usually quite worthless and considerably more erroneous than the dynamical models such as GFDL, UKMET, GFS, and NOGAPS.
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#142 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 28, 2005 2:27 pm

models are definitely shifting north though today and climatologically speaking, nearly all storms that form in the vicinity of Beta this late in October are pulled north into the NW Caribbean.
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#143 Postby tampaflwx » Fri Oct 28, 2005 2:40 pm

boca_chris wrote:models are definitely shifting north though today and climatologically speaking, nearly all storms that form in the vicinity of Beta this late in October are pulled north into the NW Caribbean.


one must remember that the 2005 season hasn't exactly displayed an affinity for climatology...
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#144 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 28, 2005 2:47 pm

boca_chris wrote:
models are definitely shifting north though today and climatologically speaking, nearly all storms that form in the vicinity of Beta this late in October are pulled north into the NW Caribbean.


one must remember that the 2005 season hasn't exactly displayed an affinity for climatology...

well I hope it doesn't decide to right now.
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#145 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 28, 2005 2:50 pm

Brent if it keeps moving north to around 15n watch out NW Caribbean.


Cycloneye, why do do you say this?

Because it will miss most of Nicaragua?
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#146 Postby no advance » Fri Oct 28, 2005 2:53 pm

Look at the latest visables seems like alot of Beta energy is being transferred north. The TW coming from the east seems to becoming part of this feature to be. I am no weather forecaster just an observer.
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#147 Postby Praxus » Fri Oct 28, 2005 2:58 pm

Loss of life will likely be much less from this storm if it misses
central america.
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#148 Postby Brent » Fri Oct 28, 2005 2:59 pm

boca_chris wrote:
Brent if it keeps moving north to around 15n watch out NW Caribbean.


Cycloneye, why do do you say this?

Because it will miss most of Nicaragua?


Yes... :P
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#149 Postby no advance » Fri Oct 28, 2005 3:00 pm

I am on your team Praquas. That area deserves no more hardship.
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#150 Postby cjrciadt » Fri Oct 28, 2005 3:04 pm

Image
Image
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#151 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Oct 28, 2005 3:49 pm

Wow Beta is growing Huge...In look at all that red. I expect Beta could pull a tiny you know what.
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#152 Postby tampaflwx » Fri Oct 28, 2005 4:04 pm

she is.....she's ready to bomb!!
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#153 Postby WindRunner » Fri Oct 28, 2005 4:06 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Wow Beta is growing Huge...In look at all that red. I expect Beta could pull a tiny you know what.


According to the NHC she is smaller they thought. 35nmi TS wind radius in all directions now.
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#154 Postby tampaflwx » Fri Oct 28, 2005 4:32 pm

Thought this was neat...if Beta does move across central america, it would certainly be unique

Image

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200526_climo.gif
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#155 Postby WxGuy1 » Fri Oct 28, 2005 4:36 pm

WindRunner wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Wow Beta is growing Huge...In look at all that red. I expect Beta could pull a tiny you know what.


According to the NHC she is smaller they thought. 35nmi TS wind radius in all directions now.


Yes, and weaker. Central pressure was pretty much on target, but flight level winds don't support 55kts in the advisory. Remember, since they are flying at 850mb, you must multiply the flight level winds by 0.8, not 0.9 as you would when they fly at 700mb. Max FL winds so far have been 51kts, or 41kts at the surface. There's only a very small chance that she's really 55kts, despite what the advisory is set for, given that recon obs only support 41kts.
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#156 Postby WindRunner » Fri Oct 28, 2005 5:02 pm

WxGuy1 wrote:
WindRunner wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Wow Beta is growing Huge...In look at all that red. I expect Beta could pull a tiny you know what.


According to the NHC she is smaller they thought. 35nmi TS wind radius in all directions now.


Yes, and weaker. Central pressure was pretty much on target, but flight level winds don't support 55kts in the advisory. Remember, since they are flying at 850mb, you must multiply the flight level winds by 0.8, not 0.9 as you would when they fly at 700mb. Max FL winds so far have been 51kts, or 41kts at the surface. There's only a very small chance that she's really 55kts, despite what the advisory is set for, given that recon obs only support 41kts.


They gave a pretty good reason for the intensity in their discussion, and I think the fact that it has an eye is another reason that we didn't see a decrease in intensity. And of course, the ever-present factor of not wanting the public to think it's weakening.
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#157 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Oct 28, 2005 5:05 pm

The area of convection has grown...In the temperature between inside to outside the eye is at 5 degrees. The eye is 15 nmi's. We got a system that maybe a little like his/her sister Wilma. Maybe the stronger winds are near the surface?
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#158 Postby Jim Cantore » Fri Oct 28, 2005 5:28 pm

I'll tell you what that LBAR continues to make me laugh :lol:
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#159 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Oct 28, 2005 5:39 pm

I would not laugh because the storm has tracked every time to the right of the nhc/models. I would be watching very closely!
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#160 Postby Brent » Fri Oct 28, 2005 6:43 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

...SUSTAINED 58 MPH WINDS IN THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA...
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