T.S. BETA Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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fasterdisaster
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#101 Postby fasterdisaster » Thu Oct 27, 2005 10:48 pm

While it certainly isn't RAPIDLY organizing, it is definitely orgainizing.
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#102 Postby El Nino » Thu Oct 27, 2005 10:54 pm

All this voncetion to the E and NE is quite incredible :eek:
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#103 Postby fasterdisaster » Thu Oct 27, 2005 11:14 pm

El Nino wrote:All this voncetion to the E and NE is quite incredible :eek:


Which is why I think it will be fairly slow strengthening to 85 mph, then explodes after that.
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#104 Postby Dr. Jonah Rainwater » Fri Oct 28, 2005 4:20 am

This is really slow strengthening though. I'm reminded of when Emily exploded from 55mph to 95mph.
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#105 Postby Cookiely » Fri Oct 28, 2005 4:47 am

000
WTNT41 KNHC 280903
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAD BEEN ON THE WANE... BUT DURING THE PAST
HOUR OR SO BETA HAS BEEN MAKING A SLIGHT COMEBACK. A STRONG BURST
OF DEEP CONVECTION... ALBEIT A SMALL AREA... HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND
TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -80C AND
COLDER. EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z REVEALED A
PRONOUNCED BUT SMALL MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE. HOWEVER... A 28/0110Z
SSMIS OVERPASS INDICATED THE EYE FEATURE HAD BEEN DISRUPTED BY SOME
EASTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW LAYER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65
KT FROM TAFB... T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB... AND T3.0/45 KT FROM AFWA. A
27/2300Z QUIKSCAT HI-RES OVERPASS ALSO SHOWED NO WIND VECTORS...
FLAGGED AND UNFLAGGED... HIGHER THAN 40 KT. HOWEVER... THE VERY
SMALL INNER CORE NOTED IN EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA WOULD LIKELY BE
UNDERSAMPLED BY QUIKSCAT. GIVEN THE DISRUPTION OF THE EYE FEATURE
...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT... WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS BEEN A STEADY 360/03 FOR THE PAST 14 HOURS...
AND THAT IS THE MOTION USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS LESS THAN STRAIGHTFORWARD. FIRST... A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 350 NMI NORTHEAST OF BETA HAS DEVELOPED SOME
IMPRESSIVE AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION... WHICH WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN THAT SYSTEM AND RESULT IN SOME POSSIBLE BINARY
INTERACTION IN THE SHORT TERM THAT THE 28/00Z NAM ALLUDED TO.
SECOND... THERE IS A DISTINCT BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL SUITE. THE
GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...GFS ENSEMBLE... AND ECMWF MODELS ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED ON A WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK IMMEDIATELY FROM THE
CURRENT POSITION. IN CONTRAST... THE UKMET...CANADIAN...
CLIPER...LBAR...AND NHC98 MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA
AND TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE FIRST GROUP APPEARS TO HAVE TO
MUCH RIDGE TO THE NORTH INITIALIZED... POSSIBLY DUE TO THE 00Z
HEIGHTS AT SAN ANDRES BEING TOO HIGH. THE 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASED
20 METERS BETWEEN 27/12Z AND 28/00Z...EVEN THOUGH BETA MOVED 30 NMI
CLOSER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GUNA AND GUNS MODELS.

SSTS ARE VERY WARM AT 29C AND HIGHER... AND THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST STEADY STRENGTHENING. THE
ONLY SLIGHT INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE VERTICAL SHEAR... WHICH IS
FORECAST TO IN CREWASE TO 15 KT BY 24 HOURS... BEFORE DECREASING TO
LESS THAN 10 KT BY 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... AND REMAINS ABOVE THE SHIPS
MODEL.

WIND RADII WERE DECREASED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT WINDS AND A
NORTHWEST 30-KT WIND REPORT AT 06Z FROM SHIP ZCAM4 LOCATED ABOUT
48 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 12.3N 81.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 12.8N 81.4W 65 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 13.4N 81.8W 75 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 13.8N 82.4W 85 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 14.1N 83.1W 90 KT
72HR VT 31/0600Z 14.5N 84.9W 35 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
96HR VT 01/0600Z 14.7N 86.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
120HR VT 02/0600Z 15.0N 88.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND

$$
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#106 Postby Cookiely » Fri Oct 28, 2005 4:51 am

Can someone fill in the blank thought Stewart left out. Also what is binary interaction between systems and what does it do to their tracks. Do they get closer to each other or pull away?
FORECAST TRACK
IS LESS THAN STRAIGHTFORWARD. FIRST... A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 350 NMI NORTHEAST OF BETA HAS DEVELOPED SOME
IMPRESSIVE (???) AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION... WHICH WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN THAT SYSTEM AND RESULT IN SOME POSSIBLE BINARY
INTERACTION IN THE SHORT TERM THAT THE 28/00Z NAM ALLUDED TO.
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#107 Postby mtm4319 » Fri Oct 28, 2005 4:53 am

Cookiely wrote:Can someone fill in the blank thought Stewart left out. Also what is binary interaction between systems and what does it do to their tracks. Do they get closer to each other or pull away?
FORECAST TRACK
IS LESS THAN STRAIGHTFORWARD. FIRST... A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 350 NMI NORTHEAST OF BETA HAS DEVELOPED SOME
IMPRESSIVE (???) AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION... WHICH WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN THAT SYSTEM AND RESULT IN SOME POSSIBLE BINARY
INTERACTION IN THE SHORT TERM THAT THE 28/00Z NAM ALLUDED TO.


My guess is "convection".
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caneman

#108 Postby caneman » Fri Oct 28, 2005 4:57 am

Cookiely wrote:000

Well, this is a very interesting statement!

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 350 NMI NORTHEAST OF BETA HAS DEVELOPED SOME
IMPRESSIVE AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION... WHICH WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN THAT SYSTEM AND RESULT IN SOME POSSIBLE BINARY
INTERACTION IN THE SHORT TERM THAT THE 28/00Z NAM ALLUDED TO.

$$
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#109 Postby caneman » Fri Oct 28, 2005 5:00 am

Cookiely wrote:Can someone fill in the blank thought Stewart left out. Also what is binary interaction between systems and what does it do to their tracks. Do they get closer to each other or pull away?
FORECAST TRACK
IS LESS THAN STRAIGHTFORWARD. FIRST... A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 350 NMI NORTHEAST OF BETA HAS DEVELOPED SOME
IMPRESSIVE (???) AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION... WHICH WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN THAT SYSTEM AND RESULT IN SOME POSSIBLE BINARY
INTERACTION IN THE SHORT TERM THAT THE 28/00Z NAM ALLUDED TO.


Means interaction between 2 systems. The 5:30 Tropical Weather Outlook seems to state it won't get going due to BETA but I'm not so sure.
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#110 Postby Cookiely » Fri Oct 28, 2005 5:01 am

caneman wrote:
Cookiely wrote:000

Well, this is a very interesting statement!

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 350 NMI NORTHEAST OF BETA HAS DEVELOPED SOME
IMPRESSIVE AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION... WHICH WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN THAT SYSTEM AND RESULT IN SOME POSSIBLE BINARY
INTERACTION IN THE SHORT TERM THAT THE 28/00Z NAM ALLUDED TO.

$$

Thanks caneman. It was too early in the morning for my brain to play word games.
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#111 Postby Dr. Jonah Rainwater » Fri Oct 28, 2005 5:33 am

I would about have a heart attack if I saw Beta, this second system, and this incoming wave all coexist as named storms in the Caribbean, this late in October. =\
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#112 Postby beachbum_al » Fri Oct 28, 2005 5:34 am

Not meaning to be...well stupid...but where is this thing going? I haven't been around much this week because of work and running the girls to all of their after school activities. Yea, I know I could look at the charts. Are the two systems in the Carribean combining together and interacting with each other?
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#113 Postby Anonymous » Fri Oct 28, 2005 5:39 am

beachbum_al wrote:Not meaning to be...well stupid...but where is this thing going? I haven't been around much this week because of work and running the girls to all of their after school activities. Yea, I know I could look at the charts. Are the two systems in the Carribean combining together and interacting with each other?


There was a Tropical Wave that is kind of coming being intrained into Tropical Storm Beta, which is expected to be a powerful Hurricane by the time of landfall in Nicaragua in a few days.
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#114 Postby caneman » Fri Oct 28, 2005 5:53 am

~Floydbuster wrote:
beachbum_al wrote:Not meaning to be...well stupid...but where is this thing going? I haven't been around much this week because of work and running the girls to all of their after school activities. Yea, I know I could look at the charts. Are the two systems in the Carribean combining together and interacting with each other?


There was a Tropical Wave that is kind of coming being intrained into Tropical Storm Beta, which is expected to be a powerful Hurricane by the time of landfall in Nicaragua in a few days.


Im not so sure that will happen. There is an MLC with this system. We'll have to see if they get some speration. The wave is looking very healthy. COuld it overpower Beta? Could it help to pull Beta more Northerly? Time will tell. Could there be a Fujawari (sp.) effect?
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#115 Postby no advance » Fri Oct 28, 2005 6:48 am

Alttle competition for energy is going on in the Car.
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#116 Postby Hyperstorm » Fri Oct 28, 2005 7:35 am

I have just found that the upper high that was forecast to develop, did in fact develop last night, but it moved rather quickly westward. That created some rather strong easterly flow, which has prevented Tropical Storm Beta from finishing the rapid burst of development that started yesterday morning. The high is forecast by the GFS to move westward toward the western Caribbean in a few days and that should provide a more favorable environment.

In the meantime, some rather strong convection has re-fired over Beta this morning, but the stronger easterly flow around the developing high NE of it has prevented a more rapid strengthening. SSTs are still warm, so don't expect a vigorous low pressure center in the Caribbean in October to dissipate without a strong negative mechanism.

Interesting that the low pressure trough that was forecast to develop a few days ago by some models is developing in the western Atlantic. This complex system is creating some disagreements in the models, with some taking it northward (UKMET) and others burying the system in Central America (GFS). As long as the trough remains there with a strong southerly flow in the western Caribbean and Beta continues creeping northward, there is going to be as equal chance of having either of the scenarios verify.

One thing is for sure though...Tropical Storm Beta is expected to remain in "slow mode" during the next few days and that should give enough time for the model tracks to congeal...
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#117 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 28, 2005 7:50 am

TROPICAL STORM BETA (AL262005) ON 20051028 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051028 1200 051029 0000 051029 1200 051030 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.7N 81.2W 13.6N 82.1W 14.0N 83.1W 14.1N 84.3W
BAMM 12.7N 81.2W 13.4N 81.7W 13.7N 82.4W 13.8N 83.5W
A98E 12.7N 81.2W 13.5N 81.4W 14.4N 82.2W 15.2N 83.1W
LBAR 12.7N 81.2W 13.7N 81.8W 15.2N 82.7W 16.9N 83.9W
SHIP 55KTS 60KTS 67KTS 73KTS
DSHP 55KTS 60KTS 67KTS 73KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051030 1200 051031 1200 051101 1200 051102 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.8N 85.8W 13.2N 89.8W 13.1N 94.4W 13.6N 99.8W
BAMM 13.5N 84.9W 13.0N 88.9W 12.4N 93.7W 11.9N 99.9W
A98E 16.3N 83.8W 19.3N 84.9W 22.0N 84.1W 25.0N 80.4W
LBAR 18.4N 85.2W 23.0N 86.5W 29.6N 82.1W 37.8N 62.9W
SHIP 78KTS 87KTS 86KTS 76KTS
DSHP 64KTS 32KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.7N LONCUR = 81.2W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 81.2W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 11.3N LONM24 = 81.2W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 993MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 25NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 25NM


12:00z Models.
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#118 Postby boca » Fri Oct 28, 2005 8:02 am

Is it possible that Beta can follow the Trough that extends off the SE coast down to the Central and Western Caribbean? What I mean is travel the trough in a NNE fashion.
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#119 Postby P.K. » Fri Oct 28, 2005 8:25 am

Does anyone have a link to the USAF (AFWA) Dvorak estimates?
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#120 Postby Nimbus » Fri Oct 28, 2005 8:27 am

There is a high building south of Haiti that is forecast to move west.

Beta is still moving north as I thought it would around the western side of the high.

As the ridge axis moves west it should provide steering in the general direction of the YC.

The immediate concern is the northeastern coast of Central America.

The NHC has factored in some steering from binary interaction with the developing tropical wave south of Haiti keeping Beta's track left.

From my perspective Beta will clearly be the dominant system and may only brush the coastline. Since beta is forecast to be a cat 2 in 48 hours it does pose a threat to Central America.
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