T.S. BETA Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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cycloneye
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#121 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 28, 2005 8:28 am

P.K. wrote:Does anyone have a link to the USAF (AFWA) Dvorak estimates?


TPNT KGWC 281245
A. TROPICAL STORM BETA (TWENTY SIX)
B. 28/1131Z (113)
C. 12.4N/7
D. 81.9W/8
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS -28/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .75 ON THE LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. FINAL T IS BASED ON
DT. PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T4.5 (UCCR)

MORALES


http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/pub/data/text/TPNT/KGWC.TXT
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#122 Postby El Nino » Fri Oct 28, 2005 8:40 am

Am I dreaming or is it expected to make landfall more northwards ? :eek:
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#123 Postby P.K. » Fri Oct 28, 2005 9:13 am



Thanks. I notice the NHC have also been referring to the TAFB Dvorak estimates as well but can't find that on the NHC page. Do you have a link to those as well?
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#124 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 28, 2005 9:19 am

P.K. wrote:


Thanks. I notice the NHC have also been referring to the TAFB Dvorak estimates as well but can't find that on the NHC page. Do you have a link to those as well?


No I dont have that one.
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#125 Postby Brent » Fri Oct 28, 2005 9:39 am

Track is creeping more northward... how lovely. :roll:

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#126 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 28, 2005 9:43 am

Brent if it keeps moving north to around 15n watch out NW Caribbean.
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#127 Postby cjrciadt » Fri Oct 28, 2005 10:48 am

Image
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#128 Postby Brent » Fri Oct 28, 2005 10:57 am

NHC model wants Beta to visit the NHC... :lol:
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#129 Postby rockyman » Fri Oct 28, 2005 11:09 am

It's gonna be close...if the system moves even 1 degree further north than currently forecast (before turning west), the system would stay over water all the way into Belize (and would be over water until this time next Wednesday)...We'll know by Sunday if the storm is going inland over the Nic/Hond border.
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#130 Postby cjrciadt » Fri Oct 28, 2005 11:12 am

Image
Ignore the 00z CMC please. :na:
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#131 Postby Brent » Fri Oct 28, 2005 11:13 am

:crazyeyes:

OK... the models can quit showing a Gulf storm. Thanks.
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#132 Postby El Nino » Fri Oct 28, 2005 12:15 pm

Oh no ... not again !
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#133 Postby mtm4319 » Fri Oct 28, 2005 2:03 pm

cjrciadt wrote:http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/2005102800/slp24.png
Ignore the 00z CMC please. :na:


Brent wrote::crazyeyes:

OK... the models can quit showing a Gulf storm. Thanks.


http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=77706
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#134 Postby WindRunner » Fri Oct 28, 2005 2:04 pm

00Z models:

911
WHXX01 KWBC 281857
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM BETA (AL262005) ON 20051028 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051028 1800 051029 0600 051029 1800 051030 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.1N 81.1W 13.7N 82.1W 13.9N 83.1W 13.9N 84.4W
BAMM 13.1N 81.1W 13.6N 81.7W 13.8N 82.4W 13.8N 83.5W
A98E 13.1N 81.1W 13.8N 81.4W 14.5N 82.1W 15.0N 83.1W
LBAR 13.1N 81.1W 13.9N 81.5W 15.2N 82.5W 16.5N 84.1W
SHIP 55KTS 60KTS 67KTS 72KTS
DSHP 55KTS 60KTS 67KTS 72KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051030 1800 051031 1800 051101 1800 051102 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.9N 86.0W 14.2N 89.8W 15.0N 93.5W 16.0N 96.3W
BAMM 13.9N 84.9W 14.3N 88.8W 14.6N 92.6W 14.8N 96.8W
A98E 15.8N 83.9W 17.8N 85.3W 19.7N 85.6W 21.4N 84.3W
LBAR 17.9N 85.7W 21.6N 87.9W 29.1N 84.6W 34.2N 67.8W
SHIP 77KTS 83KTS 84KTS 72KTS
DSHP 48KTS 29KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.1N LONCUR = 81.1W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 81.1W DIRM12 = 7DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 81.2W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 991MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 35NM RD34SE = 35NM RD34SW = 35NM RD34NW = 35NM
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#135 Postby tampaflwx » Fri Oct 28, 2005 2:06 pm

The canadian performed very poorly recently, and the UKMET was the best? So if both of these models show the north movement, what does that tell us?? :?:
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#136 Postby WindRunner » Fri Oct 28, 2005 2:13 pm

Northward shift from all models:

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#137 Postby fci » Fri Oct 28, 2005 2:16 pm

Please tell me that no Pro Mets think that this will go North towards the Yucatan et al....... :eek:
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#138 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 28, 2005 2:18 pm

I don't have a good feeling about beta :eek:
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#139 Postby Damar91 » Fri Oct 28, 2005 2:23 pm

I can't believe I'm saying this, but I'll move back to Wisconsin if that thing comes near us! :x
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#140 Postby El Nino » Fri Oct 28, 2005 2:23 pm

Me too, I don't think this show won't last ...
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