T.S. BETA Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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WindRunner
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#161 Postby WindRunner » Fri Oct 28, 2005 7:03 pm

Brent wrote:BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

...SUSTAINED 58 MPH WINDS IN THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA...


And so things start to get complicated . . . can we use a conversion factor of 1?

51kts*1.15=58.65mph :?:
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#162 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 28, 2005 7:36 pm

TROPICAL STORM BETA (AL262005) ON 20051029 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051029 0000 051029 1200 051030 0000 051030 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.4N 81.3W 13.8N 82.3W 13.7N 83.4W 13.5N 85.0W
A98E 13.4N 81.3W 14.1N 81.7W 14.8N 82.5W 15.6N 83.6W
LBAR 13.4N 81.3W 14.4N 82.1W 15.3N 83.4W 16.4N 85.1W
SHIP 55KTS 60KTS 67KTS 74KTS
DSHP 55KTS 60KTS 67KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051031 0000 051101 0000 051102 0000 051103 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.4N 86.9W 13.9N 91.1W 14.5N 95.3W 16.1N 98.7W
A98E 16.9N 84.9W 20.4N 85.8W 24.2N 83.9W 29.4N 78.3W
LBAR 17.8N 86.8W 21.3N 89.0W 27.4N 85.5W 32.4N 81.5W
SHIP 79KTS 87KTS 83KTS 64KTS
DSHP 38KTS 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.4N LONCUR = 81.3W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 12.7N LONM12 = 81.1W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 81.2W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 35NM RD34SE = 35NM RD34SW = 35NM RD34NW = 35NM



00:00z Models.
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#163 Postby WindRunner » Fri Oct 28, 2005 7:38 pm

Holding onto its 3.5's

28/2345 UTC 13.3N 81.3W T3.5/3.5 BETA
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#164 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Fri Oct 28, 2005 7:58 pm

Graphical Plots:
Image
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#165 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Oct 28, 2005 8:05 pm

I'm thinking a track near the UKMET at this moment.
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#166 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 28, 2005 8:29 pm

I would not laugh because the storm has tracked every time to the right of the nhc/models. I would be watching very closely!


Here is S. Florida I'm watching as a plume of energy is coming up north as we speak :eek:

I'm very concerned about Beta. I think it has a bag of tricks coming for us.
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#167 Postby thermos » Fri Oct 28, 2005 8:43 pm

boca_chris wrote:
I would not laugh because the storm has tracked every time to the right of the nhc/models. I would be watching very closely!


Here is S. Florida I'm watching as a plume of energy is coming up north as we speak :eek:

I'm very concerned about Beta. I think it has a bag of tricks coming for us.


I hope not. Florida doesn't need any more tricks.
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#168 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 28, 2005 8:44 pm

I don't understand how this board is so quite when more models have shifted the track north into SW FL :roll:
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#169 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 28, 2005 8:44 pm

I don't understand how this board is so quite when more models have shifted the track north into SW FL :roll:

Of course that is because many of the S. Florida posters are in the dark still and have no idea that Beta is out there :eek:
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#170 Postby superfly » Fri Oct 28, 2005 8:45 pm

A lot of deep convection flaring up but the cloud pattern shows disorganization.
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#171 Postby thermos » Fri Oct 28, 2005 8:47 pm

I think the model currently showing Florida is not one that is considered accurate.
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#172 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 28, 2005 8:48 pm

I think the model currently showing Florida is not one that is considered accurate.


but there are two now and the ones pushing it west are the BAMMs which aren't accurate either since they don't forecast troughs well.
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#173 Postby cjrciadt » Fri Oct 28, 2005 8:49 pm

Image
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#174 Postby thermos » Fri Oct 28, 2005 8:49 pm

boca_chris wrote:
I think the model currently showing Florida is not one that is considered accurate.


but there are two now and the ones pushing it west are the BAMMs which aren't accurate either since they don't forecast troughs well.


True. The models are more north than they were a couple days ago. Hopefully not a major trend.
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#175 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Fri Oct 28, 2005 8:50 pm

Caribbean MANIA!
Welcome to the Convection Party Celebration!
Image
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#176 Postby jkt21787 » Fri Oct 28, 2005 8:51 pm

boca_chris wrote:
I think the model currently showing Florida is not one that is considered accurate.


but there are two now and the ones pushing it west are the BAMMs which aren't accurate either since they don't forecast troughs well.

And the LBAR and 98E are? I trust the BAMs before I trust those two. That goes as well for the CMC before anyone brings up that model.

The chances of this going anywhere north of the UKMET track or thereabouts is extremely small, under 1 percent.
Last edited by jkt21787 on Fri Oct 28, 2005 8:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#177 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 28, 2005 8:52 pm

cjrciadt:

Your satellite shot shows a rather pronounced trough. I know that the NHC expects ridging to build in behind it but given climatology I'm not convinced this thing is heading inland and dying as some think.
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#178 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 28, 2005 8:53 pm

The chances of this going anywhere north of the UKMET track or
thereabouts is extremely small, under 1 percent.


If you look at climatology, no storm where Beta is at this time of year has made it that far west. Not one storm at least that I know of.
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#179 Postby El Nino » Fri Oct 28, 2005 8:55 pm

Hmmm I'm thinking about a track toward Belize, NWwards then turn towards Yucatan, maybe a lot weaker ... but there's some possibilites for some surprises in this track.
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#180 Postby jkt21787 » Fri Oct 28, 2005 8:56 pm

boca_chris wrote:The chances of this going anywhere north of the UKMET track or
thereabouts is extremely small, under 1 percent.


If you look at climatology, no storm where Beta is at this time of year has made it that far west. Not one storm at least that I know of.

This is true, however this year couldn't care less. Rita was climatologically supposed to go to Florida as well.

From Wxman57's model guidance post...Hopefully this will help those wondering about the solutions of the models moving it to FL...
NHCA98E -- Climatology-based "model". Not really a model, just compares the current storm position to previous storms and "guesses" where it might go. Completely useless everywhere.

LBAR -- Limited BARotropic. Limited alright, limited in its ability to forecast tropical cyclones. Generally ignore it.
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