The chances of this going anywhere north of the UKMET track or
thereabouts is extremely small, under 1 percent.
If you look at climatology, no storm where Beta is at this time of year has made it that far west. Not one storm at least that I know of.
This is true, however this year couldn't care less. Rita was climatologically supposed to go to Florida as well.
From Wxman57's model guidance post...Hopefully this will help those wondering about the solutions of the models moving it to FL...
NHCA98E -- Climatology-based "model". Not really a model, just compares the current storm position to previous storms and "guesses" where it might go. Completely useless everywhere.
LBAR -- Limited BARotropic. Limited alright, limited in its ability to forecast tropical cyclones. Generally ignore it.