Hurricane BETA Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 31848
Age: 29
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: DFW
Contact:

#121 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 30, 2005 11:16 am

El Nino wrote:Really a small one ... Maybe the track through these lakes can affect some weakening. What's the chanbce to get this depression into Pacific Ocean ?


A chance, but it's quite small. The circulation isn't going to survive the mountains.
0 likes   
Brent

User avatar
WxGuy1
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 536
Joined: Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:55 pm
Location: Oklahoma

#122 Postby WxGuy1 » Sun Oct 30, 2005 11:26 am

wxmann_91 wrote:
WxGuy1 wrote:It'll prob be borderline Cat 2/3 IMO. The overall area of cold cloud tops is shrinking, and it'll be on shore in not too long. In fact, Beta looks considerably worse on satellite now than she did a couple hours ago. Beta appears to be moving WSW, south of the NHC forecast track. Certainly a very serious rainfall threat, since the wind threat will be localized owing to the very small wind field (hurricane-force winds only extend out 15 miles from the eye). This is why we don't take the LBAR or NHCA98E "models" seriously most of the time. The majority of the dynamical models and the NHC hit this forecast quite well.


You kiddin' me? Beta is contracting and strengthening, eye is clearing out. This certainly won't be Wilma 2, but still, a very formidable and impressive hurricane to say the least.


No, I wasn't kidding you. Beta briefly got to 100kts, then weakened back down to 90kts. Sounds like borderline Cat 2/3 to me... The NHC discussion mentioned similar things I did... I don't imagine many folks thought the winds were going to be the big deal out of Beta, given her very small wind field.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxmann_91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7997
Age: 26
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
Location: Southern California
Contact:

#123 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Oct 30, 2005 12:33 pm

WxGuy1 wrote:
wxmann_91 wrote:
WxGuy1 wrote:It'll prob be borderline Cat 2/3 IMO. The overall area of cold cloud tops is shrinking, and it'll be on shore in not too long. In fact, Beta looks considerably worse on satellite now than she did a couple hours ago. Beta appears to be moving WSW, south of the NHC forecast track. Certainly a very serious rainfall threat, since the wind threat will be localized owing to the very small wind field (hurricane-force winds only extend out 15 miles from the eye). This is why we don't take the LBAR or NHCA98E "models" seriously most of the time. The majority of the dynamical models and the NHC hit this forecast quite well.


You kiddin' me? Beta is contracting and strengthening, eye is clearing out. This certainly won't be Wilma 2, but still, a very formidable and impressive hurricane to say the least.


No, I wasn't kidding you. Beta briefly got to 100kts, then weakened back down to 90kts. Sounds like borderline Cat 2/3 to me... The NHC discussion mentioned similar things I did... I don't imagine many folks thought the winds were going to be the big deal out of Beta, given her very small wind field.


Good observation WxGuy1 and I credit you for seeing that before I did. When I made this post the eye was indeed rapidly clearing out and I thought it was strengthening, but the next frame indicated that the eye was indeed filling back in.

Kudos to you, crow for me. :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 19982
Age: 39
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#124 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 30, 2005 5:32 pm

Anybody catch this? What a dramatic change from the 11:00am to the 5:00pm EST advisory: :roll:

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN OCT 30 2005

CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WERE RAPIDLY WARMING IN THE HOURS JUST BEFORE
BETA MADE LANDFALL NEAR 12Z THIS MORNING. THE LANDFALL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE WAS 90 KT...OR CATEGORY TWO...BASED ON A DATA-T DVORAK
NUMBER OF 5.0 FROM TAFB AT 1115Z. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
HURRICANE...BETA SHOULD WEAKEN VERY RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES FARTHER
INLAND...AND THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE 24
HOURS OR SO IT WILL SPEND OVER LAND. HOWEVER...IN THE UNLIKELY
EVENT THAT BETA REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT ITS OVERLAND
PASSAGE.
..IT WOULD RETAIN ITS NAME IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
BASIN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 235/6. BETA HAS MOVED PAST A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.

EVEN THOUGH BETA IS WEAKENING...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS WILL
CONTINUE OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


000
WTNT41 KNHC 302027
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SUN OCT 30 2005

BETA CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATED TO BE 260/6. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST
OF BETA SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A PATH A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST
UNTIL THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN
NICARAGUA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME REGENERATION
AFTER THE REMNANTS OF BETA ENTER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN
TOMORROW
.

EVEN THOUGH BETA IS WEAKENING...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS WILL
CONTINUE OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...AND THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
0 likes   

User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5810
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:

#125 Postby WindRunner » Sun Oct 30, 2005 7:47 pm

00Z models . . . didn't bother running SHIPS, they know it's dying.

108
WHXX01 KWBC 310028
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM BETA (AL262005) ON 20051031 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051031 0000 051031 1200 051101 0000 051101 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.8N 84.9W 13.1N 86.7W 13.6N 88.5W 14.4N 90.1W
BAMM 12.8N 84.9W 13.0N 86.4W 13.4N 88.2W 14.0N 89.9W
A98E 12.8N 84.9W 13.1N 86.4W 13.5N 88.0W 13.9N 89.7W
LBAR 12.8N 84.9W 13.1N 86.6W 14.1N 88.5W 15.5N 90.3W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051102 0000 051103 0000 051104 0000 051105 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.0N 91.5W 15.6N 93.9W 16.2N 95.2W 15.6N 95.7W
BAMM 14.3N 91.5W 14.5N 95.2W 15.1N 98.5W 15.2N 101.4W
A98E 14.3N 91.4W 15.3N 94.8W 16.4N 97.8W 16.9N 99.2W
LBAR 17.0N 91.8W 20.0N 93.5W 23.1N 93.7W 29.6N 90.0W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 84.9W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 83.5W DIRM12 = 238DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 13.6N LONM24 = 82.5W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 80KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 30NM
0 likes   


Return to “2005”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest