Hurricane BETA Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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MalakianOne
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#61 Postby MalakianOne » Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:23 pm

A pinhole eye is now seen in the sat pictures...

I think Beta is now a cat 2/3
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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#62 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:27 pm

I don't see a eye...This is hardly a 90 mph.
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gatorcane
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#63 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:29 pm

Prediction:

Beta will move ashore tomorrow, weaken, and then all eyes will be on the wave approaching the lesser Antilles. Why?

1) it's showing excellent satellite presentation this evening, nearly an invest in my opinion.
2) it's not going to be a fish as ridging is building in out ahead of it

There's a thread on this wave to discuss further. :eek:
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#64 Postby MalakianOne » Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:33 pm

Image

Sure?

Im already seein' a smal eye right now!
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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#65 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:36 pm

Recon data from a few hours ago had a max wind of 77 knots=79.65 mph. In found the storm to have 979 to 980 millibars.
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#66 Postby FunkMasterB » Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:42 pm

77knots = 89 mph
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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#67 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:44 pm

At .9 reduce...
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hi

#68 Postby Dave C » Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:52 pm

The latest vortex from the recon thread said a tighter eye was observed. We need this to get onshore fast! The flooding will be the big story. :cry:
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Weatherfreak000

ummm...

#69 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:59 pm

Image



What??....
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#70 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:01 pm

No, I've seen this graphic. Actually there is already a discussion about this.

It won't happen because there will be too much ridging to the north of Beta. See the GFS tropical cyclone genesis model.

I think Accuweather is trying to build up drama during the aftermath of Wilma and/or it's on crack. :roll:
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#71 Postby El Nino » Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:30 pm

This path is a real possibility but I'm not sure Beta can recover to the East of Yucatan. I just don't hope it ! Anyway, Nicaragua will be flooded :cry:
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#72 Postby MalakianOne » Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:48 pm

Image

Ok... There's a small eye right now on sat :(...

Beta is more stronger now, I think.
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#73 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:49 pm

471
WHXX01 KWBC 300025
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE BETA (AL262005) ON 20051030 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051030 0000 051030 1200 051031 0000 051031 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.8N 82.6W 13.8N 84.0W 13.8N 85.5W 14.1N 87.3W
BAMM 13.8N 82.6W 13.4N 84.0W 13.0N 85.6W 12.7N 87.5W
A98E 13.8N 82.6W 13.8N 83.5W 13.8N 84.8W 13.9N 86.3W
LBAR 13.8N 82.6W 13.9N 83.9W 14.5N 85.4W 15.2N 87.5W
SHIP 90KTS 99KTS 105KTS 108KTS
DSHP 90KTS 99KTS 50KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051101 0000 051102 0000 051103 0000 051104 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.5N 89.0W 15.8N 92.0W 17.3N 93.2W 19.3N 91.4W
BAMM 12.7N 89.4W 12.6N 93.4W 13.0N 98.5W 14.2N 103.2W
A98E 14.2N 88.1W 14.7N 91.3W 15.2N 94.4W 16.3N 96.9W
LBAR 16.2N 89.2W 20.1N 91.0W 26.5N 88.5W 32.8N 81.0W
SHIP 109KTS 98KTS 77KTS 54KTS
DSHP 29KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 82.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 81.6W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 13.4N LONM24 = 81.3W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 75KT
CENPRS = 970MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 50NM



0z Models initalized at 90kts and pressure of 970mb
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#74 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:56 pm

holy crap!!! :raincloud: :crazyeyes: :crazyeyes: :crazyeyes: :eek:
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#75 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:04 pm

:eek: :eek: :eek:
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#neversummer

fasterdisaster
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#76 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:08 pm

so next advisory at 11 we will have a 105 mph Beta most likely.
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#77 Postby FunkMasterB » Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:13 pm

At .9 reduce...

Show your work next time, Matt...
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#78 Postby WindRunner » Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:32 pm

fasterdisaster wrote:so next advisory at 11 we will have a 105 mph Beta most likely.


and an official forecast of a Cat 3 at landfall.
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#79 Postby Sanibel » Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:40 pm

Looks like GFDL nailed it again.

Storm looks WSW.


Should landfall near Laguna De Wounta on the sparsely populated Mosquito Coast...
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#80 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Oct 29, 2005 9:10 pm

They say the ACE is the 4th most active overall season since 1950s. What is the most Active season this one has a 212 in which Beta is going to add to that another 3.88 something?

The recon been reporting for the last few days that Beta has not been as strong as thought. At least at flight level...I don't know but this is another that might have stronger winds near the surface. Is that right or wrong?
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