Hurricane BETA Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 36
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

#41 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:11 am

wxmann_91 wrote:As I've said before, Florida will not get much if any, either Beta dissipates in Central America or it recurves well east of Florida. There is no GOM option here.



I'm not saying Beta will come here...but National Weather Surface
suggests that tropical moisture from whatever's left of Beta
will get drawn into a new low pressure system in the GOM. This
new low pressure system may intensify and lead to a Florida
Severe Weather Outbreak per NWS Ruskin, FL discussion.
The latest GFS indicates a low splitting from Beta and
heading towards Florida. This low is not the strength of Beta, but
may be enough to induce severe thunderstorm development
Tuesday-Wednesday.
0 likes   

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 36
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

#42 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:17 am

UPDATE: NWS Tampa Bay has dropped the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

The forecast is very uncertain it seems...
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#43 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:29 am

there is no chance of Beta impacting Florida. I do not know why some think this is a serious prospect

this will be the worst disaster since Mitch for the area though, likely much worse than Stan and likely at least on par with Jeanne last year
0 likes   

User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4671
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

#44 Postby ronjon » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:40 am

Looks like Beta on its way to central america with a W-NW movement now. Not sure what's going to happen with the convective blobs to Beta's N & NE. Probably a good bet this moisture gets pulled NW and N into FL ahead of an approaching trough mid-week.
0 likes   

User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4671
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

#45 Postby ronjon » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:48 am

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:UPDATE: NWS Tampa Bay has dropped the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

The forecast is very uncertain it seems...


Not according to HPC - look at their 7-day forecast loop. Might be a classic set up for severe weather over the FL peninsula. Add the upper level energy diving SE with advancing tropical moisture - seems like the perfect recipe. HPC Disc seems to give the 06Z GFS a lot of credence.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html
0 likes   

User avatar
WxGuy1
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 538
Joined: Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:55 pm
Location: Oklahoma

#46 Postby WxGuy1 » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:50 am

ronjon wrote:Looks like Beta on its way to central america with a W-NW movement now. Not sure what's going to happen with the convective blobs to Beta's N & NE. Probably a good bet this moisture gets pulled NW and N into FL ahead of an approaching trough mid-week.


Yeah, certainly looks like a solid WNW movement now. Touch to pick out any eye signature on satellite imagery, with the CDO breaking down a tad in favor of curved convective development south of the center. WV imagery is showing hints of a very small eye in the center -- we'll see if this does anything over the next 6-10 hours.
0 likes   

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 36
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

#47 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:56 am

Derek Ortt wrote:there is no chance of Beta impacting Florida. I do not know why some think this is a serious prospect

this will be the worst disaster since Mitch for the area though, likely much worse than Stan and likely at least on par with Jeanne last year


I never said Beta would head for Florida. I said tropical moisture
in the Caribbean may combine with a new GOM low to create a
severe weather outbreak across Florida.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37041
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#48 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:57 am

NHC discussion mentions a pinhole eye... uh oh. Remember what happened when Wilma had one? :eek:
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
wxmann_91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8013
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
Location: Southern California
Contact:

#49 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Oct 29, 2005 12:06 pm

Brent wrote:NHC discussion mentions a pinhole eye... uh oh. Remember what happened when Wilma had one? :eek:


I don't see it, and I don't see the excessively deep convection that is usually associated with rapidly deepening systems.
0 likes   

User avatar
cjrciadt
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1615
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:11 pm
Location: Kissimmee, FL

#50 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Oct 29, 2005 12:07 pm

Image
No defined eye yet.
0 likes   

User avatar
theworld
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 197
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:33 pm
Location: DelMarVa

#51 Postby theworld » Sat Oct 29, 2005 12:15 pm

There is a pinhole eye. And, if we look at the 'big picture' here of the circulation throughout the whole region, one might assume there is a larger circulation pattern that wants to meander into the Central Carribean rather than track west.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#52 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 29, 2005 12:55 pm

Beta continues to intensify now at 90 mph and now moving westward albeit slowly.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4928
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

#53 Postby Nimbus » Sat Oct 29, 2005 1:00 pm

At least it seems to be finally moving WNW. Hopefully Beta will make landfall before becoming a major hurricane and keep moving steadily west to reduce the spot rainfall totals. Flooding will still be bad as the mountains of South America wring out the moisture. Not sure what will become of the remnants yet.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#54 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 29, 2005 1:44 pm

Not sure what will become of the remnants yet.


That is the question. I think alot of leftover energy will remain in the SW Caribbean that will increase as the wave just south of Haiti continues moving westward.

The NHC mentions that this wave may get absorbed into Beta but I think Beta will be on land before this can happen.
0 likes   

User avatar
Cookiely
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3211
Age: 73
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 7:31 am
Location: Tampa, Florida

#55 Postby Cookiely » Sat Oct 29, 2005 1:54 pm

Did Beta break the record for most hurricanes in a season with 13? Is this right?
0 likes   

jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#56 Postby jkt21787 » Sat Oct 29, 2005 1:54 pm

Cookiely wrote:Did Beta break the record for most hurricanes in a season with 13? Is this right?

This is correct. 2005 now stands alone with the most hurricanes in a single season.
0 likes   

User avatar
cjrciadt
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1615
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:11 pm
Location: Kissimmee, FL

#57 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Oct 29, 2005 2:59 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 33
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:

#58 Postby WindRunner » Sat Oct 29, 2005 3:36 pm

5pm advisory out ridiculously early . . . someone must want to get out of the office quick! :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
Matt-hurricanewatcher
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11649
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Nov 26, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Portland,OR
Contact:

#59 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:19 pm

So did Mitch stall to kill that many people. Or could this be that bad? If so Beta is asking to be retired.
0 likes   

User avatar
WxGuy1
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 538
Joined: Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:55 pm
Location: Oklahoma

#60 Postby WxGuy1 » Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:23 pm

Mitch was a good Cat 5 that moved very slowly near the area, allowing for very large rainfall accumulations. In contrast, Beta is a small, borderline Cat 1/2 hurricane.

I'm wondering if one of the big reason for the slower-than-expected strengthening is due to land interaction. If that part of central America is mountaineous, then I'd expect downsloping flow in the eastern and southern parts of Nicaragua, thus leading to drier low-level air that is being precluding / discouraging more intense convection from developing. Convection has been weaker on the western part of the storm most of the day.
0 likes   


Return to “2005”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests