Hurricane BETA Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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DoctorHurricane2003

Hurricane BETA Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#1 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Sat Oct 29, 2005 1:35 am

Thought I'd give it a jump-start ;)

2 AM EDT
Hurricane 26L BETA
65 KT
987 MB
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#2 Postby gotoman38 » Sat Oct 29, 2005 2:19 am

Nicaragua doesn't need it.... nobody does... but I just just don't see the northern component.... see

BETA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 4 KNOTS.
IT SEEMS THAT THE LEFT TURN INDICATED BY THE PARADE OF MODELS LED
BY THE GFDL IS BEGINNING. IT WOULD BE FOOLISH NOT TO FOLLOW THESE
ADVANCED MODELS...AND RIGHTFULLY SO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN TURNING BETA WESTWARD. THE CURRENT STEERING PATTERN WOULD
SUGGEST A NORTHWARD TRACK BUT THE CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS
NEW PATTERN WILL ULTIMATELY FORCE BETA TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD
CENTRAL AMERICA.


A Psychoalpha­discobetabioa­quadoloop :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#3 Postby quandary » Sat Oct 29, 2005 3:24 am

Beta reminds me a lot of the tropical storm in the movie Jurrassic Park. It's off the Costa Rican coast and its a somewhat mild tropical storm / weak hurricane, but the most memorable line is from the NHC -- all communications with Proventia (sp?) island have been lost.
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#4 Postby thunderchief » Sat Oct 29, 2005 3:27 am

uh oh if they lose power the tyranosaurs will get out!
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#5 Postby Cookiely » Sat Oct 29, 2005 5:52 am

I don't think Beta likes the models. Maybe the LBAR wasn't so crazy after all. Looks like Beta might come to Florida after all as a winter type low pressure system.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 290900
TCDAT1
HURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE BETA HAS
BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO THE 13TH HURRICANE OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC SEASON. A
29/0211Z SSMI OVERPASS THAT WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY REVEALED A VERY SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION... WHICH MEANS BETA WAS PROBABLY A HURRICANE AT 00Z. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND T4.0/65 KT FROM SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 320/03. THE CENTER
POSITION HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE UNTIL THE PAST HOUR WHEN AN
EYE FEATURE/PRONOUNCED WARM SPOT BECAME APPARENT IN INFRARED
IMAGERY NORTH OF PROVIDENCIA ISLAND. THE OVERALL MOTION...HOWEVER
...HAS BEEN VERY SLOW AND BETA MAY EVEN BE STATIONARY. THE COMPACT
HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY TRAPPED IN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THAT LIES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES... WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA... AND CENTRAL AMERICA. MOST OF THE NHC MODELS CONTINUE TO
OVERESTIMATE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND
INSIST ON DRIVING BETA WEST-SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HOWEVER... THEY
HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THIS MOTION FOR NEARLY 3 DAYS NOW AND IT
HASN'T HAPPENED YET. THE EXCEPTIONS HAVE BEEN THE UKMET... CANADIAN
AND SOME OF THE SIMPLER STATISTICAL MODELS... WHICH HAVE BEEN TAKING
BETA ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AN INTO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THOSE MODELS HAVE HAD
A NORTHWARD BIAS AND ALSO A FAST SPEED BIAS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS INDUCING THE
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BETA TO GRADUALLY BUILD
WESTWARD AND SLOWLY NUDGE THE HURRICANE INTO NICARAGUA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES
BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE MENTIONED EARLIER.

THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED AND THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW 10 KT BY 24 HOURS. THE
VERY WARM SSTS AND THE UNUSUALLY MOIST MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE CONDUCIVE TO BETA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... IF COLD UPWELLING
DOES NOT OCCUR BENEATH THE SLOW MOVING CYCLONE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
BETA COULD BECOME A STRONG CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA.

REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA... CAUSING CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE... AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. IN ADDITION... SOME
OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BETA MAY GET DRAWN
INTO A DEVELOPING WINTER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO... RESULTING IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS CUBA... FLORIDA... AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 13.7N 81.5W 70 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 14.1N 82.1W 80 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 14.3N 83.0W 90 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 14.4N 83.9W 50 KT...INLAND NERN NICARAGUA
48HR VT 31/0600Z 14.4N 84.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
72HR VT 01/0600Z 14.4N 86.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
96HR VT 02/0600Z 14.5N 88.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
120HR VT 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
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#6 Postby dixiebreeze » Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:43 am

I agree. The GFDL was run at 2 a.m. today and is obviously not interpreting the ridge weakness well. UKMET is the only one with any sense. :)
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:53 am

HURRICANE BETA (AL262005) ON 20051029 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051029 1200 051030 0000 051030 1200 051031 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.8N 81.6W 14.3N 82.8W 14.6N 84.2W 15.1N 85.9W
BAMM 13.8N 81.6W 14.2N 82.7W 14.4N 84.1W 14.6N 86.0W
A98E 13.8N 81.6W 14.3N 82.2W 14.9N 83.2W 15.8N 84.7W
LBAR 13.8N 81.6W 14.4N 82.5W 15.3N 83.9W 16.4N 85.7W
SHIP 75KTS 85KTS 94KTS 100KTS
DSHP 75KTS 85KTS 79KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051031 1200 051101 1200 051102 1200 051103 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.7N 87.8W 17.4N 90.8W 19.6N 91.1W 23.5N 84.5W
BAMM 14.9N 88.0W 15.9N 91.9W 16.6N 94.9W 17.3N 96.8W
A98E 17.2N 86.5W 21.7N 88.1W 27.4N 85.8W 33.5N 79.3W
LBAR 17.7N 87.5W 22.0N 89.0W 30.4N 83.9W 34.2N 66.4W
SHIP 104KTS 101KTS 83KTS 57KTS
DSHP 34KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 81.6W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 13.4N LONM12 = 81.3W DIRM12 = 339DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 81.1W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 979MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 50NM


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#8 Postby WindRunner » Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:55 am

Stronger and deeper now.
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#9 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:04 am

Image
What is the GFDL thinking? We all know the LBAR does not think, but the GFDL seems out to lunch.
:darrow:
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#10 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:06 am

Who made the Beta fish mad this morning? :eek:
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caneman

#11 Postby caneman » Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:07 am

cjrciadt wrote:Image
What is the GFDL thinking? We all know the LBAR does not think, but the GFDL seems out to lunch.


:darrow:


Wow, the BAMD for the first time now takes it North!
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#12 Postby dixiebreeze » Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:13 am

I expect most of the models to trend more northerly over the weekend.

Looks like a double hurricane:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg
Last edited by dixiebreeze on Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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CHRISTY

#13 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:15 am

i think if beta doesnt move inland it might eventually be a problem for the US.
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#14 Postby sponger » Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:16 am

What a season, Another record falls! I hope Beta doesnt come close to Mitch's potential for destruction. Bring it North! (Is a Beta a he or a she?)
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#15 Postby no advance » Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:16 am

LBAR does not think. Maybe it is the only way to figure Beta out. A few yrs ago we would be wetting our lips with the TW at 50. This yr?
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CHRISTY

#16 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:19 am

why are models trending more north ??
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#17 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:25 am

sponger wrote:What a season, Another record falls! I hope Beta doesnt come close to Mitch's potential for destruction. Bring it North! (Is a Beta a he or a she?)


I think we've reached a general consensus that the pronoun for Beta should be "it"
however for those who really want to stamp a gender lable on this one, Beta would be a she.

Vince....M
Wilma...F
Alpha....M
Beta......F
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#18 Postby dixiebreeze » Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:29 am

CHRISTY wrote:why are models trending more north ??


Because of a weakness in the ridge across the northern GOM. The NHC expects it to reinforce, but apparently hasn't happened yet enough to turn Beta.
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#19 Postby tampaflwx » Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:30 am

wxwatcher91 wrote:
sponger wrote:What a season, Another record falls! I hope Beta doesnt come close to Mitch's potential for destruction. Bring it North! (Is a Beta a he or a she?)


I think we've reached a general consensus that the pronoun for Beta should be "it"
however for those who really want to stamp a gender lable on this one, Beta would be a she.

Vince....M
Wilma...F
Alpha....M
Beta......F


a lot of the destructive hurricanes this year have been females!
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CHRISTY

#20 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:30 am

ok thanks....
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