Hurricane BETA Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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quandary
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#81 Postby quandary » Sat Oct 29, 2005 9:30 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:They say the ACE is the 4th most active overall season since 1950s. What is the most Active season this one has a 212 in which Beta is going to add to that another 3.88 something?

The recon been reporting for the last few days that Beta has not been as strong as thought. At least at flight level...I don't know but this is another that might have stronger winds near the surface. Is that right or wrong?


Highest ACE came in 2004. I will figure out precisely what it is in a second.
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#82 Postby canetracker » Sat Oct 29, 2005 9:46 pm

Beta now going SW of NHC track. Looks like it is trying to follow a similar track as the GFDL. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
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#83 Postby ALhurricane » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:14 pm

The dreaded pinhole eye is developing. There could be some very rapid intensification before landfall.

Image
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#84 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:18 pm

That eye looks smaller then Wilma's. In it will not have enough time to get clear. In with out recon we will never know.
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#85 Postby ALhurricane » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:24 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:That eye looks smaller then Wilma's. In it will not have enough time to get clear. In with out recon we will never know.


In all due respect, that really doesn't make sense. We saw the same type of eye feature with Wilma and look at what happened. In no way am I prediciting that crazy of intensification, but this is a tell tale sign of significant strengthening phase. 12 more hours over water is too long in this case. It needs to get inland quick for the sake of the people down there.
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#86 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:30 pm

:eek:
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#87 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:31 pm

Where is the recon when we need it? :cry:
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#88 Postby WxGuy1 » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:36 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Where is the recon when we need it? :cry:


In this case, I'm not sure it matters. The hurricane will make landfall relatively soon, so knowing if the storm is 110mph or 115mph isn't going to change anything in terms of preparations or reponse. Of course it's always nice to really know how strong a hurricane is for scientific purposes, but for those in it's path, there's no more time to prepare regardless of its intensity.
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#89 Postby ALhurricane » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:40 pm

WxGuy1 wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Where is the recon when we need it? :cry:


In this case, I'm not sure it matters. The hurricane will make landfall relatively soon, so knowing if the storm is 110mph or 115mph isn't going to change anything in terms of preparations or reponse. Of course it's always nice to really know how strong a hurricane is for scientific purposes, but for those in it's path, there's no more time to prepare regardless of its intensity.


The problem is this may be more than 115mph. These tight cores can ramp up very quick. A higher end Cat 3 certainly cannot be ruled out before landfall.
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#90 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 30, 2005 12:29 am

Image

:shocked!:
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#91 Postby fasterdisaster » Sun Oct 30, 2005 12:36 am

That looks like Wilma when it exploded from 110 mph 1o 150 mph
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#92 Postby thunderchief » Sun Oct 30, 2005 12:50 am

wilma had much colder cloud tops.

...and the big threat from this one is rain and mudslides.
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#93 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 30, 2005 12:53 am

thunderchief wrote:wilma had much colder cloud tops.

...and the big threat from this one is rain and mudslides.


..which will be much deadlier than the wind.
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#94 Postby EyELeSs1 » Sun Oct 30, 2005 12:57 am

...Hurricane Beta close to category three strength as the eye nears
the coast of Nicaragua...
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#95 Postby Ola » Sun Oct 30, 2005 1:13 am

205 am EDT sun Oct 30 2005
Tropical weather discussion for North America...Central
America...Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea...northeastern sections
of South America...and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from
the Equator to 32n. The following information is based on
satellite imagery...weather observations...radar...and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0445 UTC.
...Special feature...
Hurricane Beta is centered near 13.3n 83.2w at 30/0600 UTC or
about 105 nm S of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras
border and about 50 nm E of Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua moving WSW
at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum
sustain wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. See the
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers miatcmat1/
wtnt21 knhc and the public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
miatcpat1/ wtnt31 knhc for more details. Beta has become a
fairly symmetrical system with numerous strong convection
surrounding a small eye within 45 nm of the center. Scattered
moderate/strong convection covers the area from 11.5n-15n W of
81w to inland over Nicaragua to 84.5w. Outer rainband band of
similar convection is within 50 nm of line 17n80w 17n82w inland
over Honduras near 15n84w to over W Nicaragua near 14n85w. Beta
should make landfall within the next few hours. However...
tropical storm force winds are already over portions of
Nicaragua for several hours and will continue through the night
as Beta continues inland. This category three hurricane is
expected to produce a storm surge on the Nicaragua coast with
torrential rain...mudslides...and high winds well inland.


???????? Cat 3? 110KT ? = 125mph?

Was there a special advisory I missed?
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#96 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 30, 2005 1:18 am

If there has been a special update, I missed it. The 1am advisory came out 20 minutes ago and it was 110 mph.

:think:
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#97 Postby Ola » Sun Oct 30, 2005 1:20 am

Brent wrote:If there has been a special update, I missed it. The 1am advisory came out 20 minutes ago and it was 110 mph.

:think:


Same here. Something is wrong. Someone needs a vacation.
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#98 Postby thunderchief » Sun Oct 30, 2005 1:21 am

it looks like someone at NHC isnt paying attention to their units.
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#99 Postby RattleMan » Sun Oct 30, 2005 1:25 am

Ola wrote:
205 am EDT sun Oct 30 2005
Tropical weather discussion for North America...Central
America...Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea...northeastern sections
of South America...and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from
the Equator to 32n. The following information is based on
satellite imagery...weather observations...radar...and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0445 UTC.
...Special feature...
Hurricane Beta is centered near 13.3n 83.2w at 30/0600 UTC or
about 105 nm S of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras
border and about 50 nm E of Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua moving WSW
at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum
sustain wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. See the
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers miatcmat1/
wtnt21 knhc and the public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
miatcpat1/ wtnt31 knhc for more details. Beta has become a
fairly symmetrical system with numerous strong convection
surrounding a small eye within 45 nm of the center. Scattered
moderate/strong convection covers the area from 11.5n-15n W of
81w to inland over Nicaragua to 84.5w. Outer rainband band of
similar convection is within 50 nm of line 17n80w 17n82w inland
over Honduras near 15n84w to over W Nicaragua near 14n85w. Beta
should make landfall within the next few hours. However...
tropical storm force winds are already over portions of
Nicaragua for several hours and will continue through the night
as Beta continues inland. This category three hurricane is
expected to produce a storm surge on the Nicaragua coast with
torrential rain...mudslides...and high winds well inland.


???????? Cat 3? 110KT ? = 125mph?

Was there a special advisory I missed?


000
AXNT20 KNHC 300619 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 30 2005

Seems they issued a corrected Discussion, and the 110 kt bit is changed to 95 kt, but it still says "THIS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE".
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#100 Postby quandary » Sun Oct 30, 2005 1:36 am

I must note that it is not yet 2:05 AM EST. Daylight Savings People! Hah, the NHC forgot.
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