Hurricane BETA Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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#41 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:11 am

wxmann_91 wrote:As I've said before, Florida will not get much if any, either Beta dissipates in Central America or it recurves well east of Florida. There is no GOM option here.



I'm not saying Beta will come here...but National Weather Surface
suggests that tropical moisture from whatever's left of Beta
will get drawn into a new low pressure system in the GOM. This
new low pressure system may intensify and lead to a Florida
Severe Weather Outbreak per NWS Ruskin, FL discussion.
The latest GFS indicates a low splitting from Beta and
heading towards Florida. This low is not the strength of Beta, but
may be enough to induce severe thunderstorm development
Tuesday-Wednesday.
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#42 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:17 am

UPDATE: NWS Tampa Bay has dropped the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

The forecast is very uncertain it seems...
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Derek Ortt

#43 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:29 am

there is no chance of Beta impacting Florida. I do not know why some think this is a serious prospect

this will be the worst disaster since Mitch for the area though, likely much worse than Stan and likely at least on par with Jeanne last year
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#44 Postby ronjon » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:40 am

Looks like Beta on its way to central america with a W-NW movement now. Not sure what's going to happen with the convective blobs to Beta's N & NE. Probably a good bet this moisture gets pulled NW and N into FL ahead of an approaching trough mid-week.
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#45 Postby ronjon » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:48 am

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:UPDATE: NWS Tampa Bay has dropped the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

The forecast is very uncertain it seems...


Not according to HPC - look at their 7-day forecast loop. Might be a classic set up for severe weather over the FL peninsula. Add the upper level energy diving SE with advancing tropical moisture - seems like the perfect recipe. HPC Disc seems to give the 06Z GFS a lot of credence.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html
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#46 Postby WxGuy1 » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:50 am

ronjon wrote:Looks like Beta on its way to central america with a W-NW movement now. Not sure what's going to happen with the convective blobs to Beta's N & NE. Probably a good bet this moisture gets pulled NW and N into FL ahead of an approaching trough mid-week.


Yeah, certainly looks like a solid WNW movement now. Touch to pick out any eye signature on satellite imagery, with the CDO breaking down a tad in favor of curved convective development south of the center. WV imagery is showing hints of a very small eye in the center -- we'll see if this does anything over the next 6-10 hours.
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#47 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:56 am

Derek Ortt wrote:there is no chance of Beta impacting Florida. I do not know why some think this is a serious prospect

this will be the worst disaster since Mitch for the area though, likely much worse than Stan and likely at least on par with Jeanne last year


I never said Beta would head for Florida. I said tropical moisture
in the Caribbean may combine with a new GOM low to create a
severe weather outbreak across Florida.
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#48 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:57 am

NHC discussion mentions a pinhole eye... uh oh. Remember what happened when Wilma had one? :eek:
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#49 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Oct 29, 2005 12:06 pm

Brent wrote:NHC discussion mentions a pinhole eye... uh oh. Remember what happened when Wilma had one? :eek:


I don't see it, and I don't see the excessively deep convection that is usually associated with rapidly deepening systems.
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#50 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Oct 29, 2005 12:07 pm

Image
No defined eye yet.
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#51 Postby theworld » Sat Oct 29, 2005 12:15 pm

There is a pinhole eye. And, if we look at the 'big picture' here of the circulation throughout the whole region, one might assume there is a larger circulation pattern that wants to meander into the Central Carribean rather than track west.

Image
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#52 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 29, 2005 12:55 pm

Beta continues to intensify now at 90 mph and now moving westward albeit slowly.
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#53 Postby Nimbus » Sat Oct 29, 2005 1:00 pm

At least it seems to be finally moving WNW. Hopefully Beta will make landfall before becoming a major hurricane and keep moving steadily west to reduce the spot rainfall totals. Flooding will still be bad as the mountains of South America wring out the moisture. Not sure what will become of the remnants yet.
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#54 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 29, 2005 1:44 pm

Not sure what will become of the remnants yet.


That is the question. I think alot of leftover energy will remain in the SW Caribbean that will increase as the wave just south of Haiti continues moving westward.

The NHC mentions that this wave may get absorbed into Beta but I think Beta will be on land before this can happen.
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#55 Postby Cookiely » Sat Oct 29, 2005 1:54 pm

Did Beta break the record for most hurricanes in a season with 13? Is this right?
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#56 Postby jkt21787 » Sat Oct 29, 2005 1:54 pm

Cookiely wrote:Did Beta break the record for most hurricanes in a season with 13? Is this right?

This is correct. 2005 now stands alone with the most hurricanes in a single season.
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#57 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Oct 29, 2005 2:59 pm

Image
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#58 Postby WindRunner » Sat Oct 29, 2005 3:36 pm

5pm advisory out ridiculously early . . . someone must want to get out of the office quick! :lol:
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#59 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:19 pm

So did Mitch stall to kill that many people. Or could this be that bad? If so Beta is asking to be retired.
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#60 Postby WxGuy1 » Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:23 pm

Mitch was a good Cat 5 that moved very slowly near the area, allowing for very large rainfall accumulations. In contrast, Beta is a small, borderline Cat 1/2 hurricane.

I'm wondering if one of the big reason for the slower-than-expected strengthening is due to land interaction. If that part of central America is mountaineous, then I'd expect downsloping flow in the eastern and southern parts of Nicaragua, thus leading to drier low-level air that is being precluding / discouraging more intense convection from developing. Convection has been weaker on the western part of the storm most of the day.
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