TD 27,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

tampaflwx · #81 Postby **tampaflwx** » Mon Nov 14, 2005 2:46 am

hmm... everyone is asleep while the storm is brewing big time... :roll:

#82 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Nov 14, 2005 2:53 am

Midnight GFDL isn't quite so strong 953hPa, with 950hPa winds of 107kts.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #83 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Nov 14, 2005 3:02 am

A reporting station to the southeast of the LLC is reporting 1006 millibars. So its droping.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #84 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Nov 14, 2005 3:20 am

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TGPY.html

WindRunner · #85 Postby **WindRunner** » Mon Nov 14, 2005 5:24 am

The UKMET really shouldn't be throwing that "intense" word around, we don't see it too often.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #86 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Nov 14, 2005 5:32 am

That means it serious...Also the Gfdl has been for the last two runs above 100 knots. The 3 hour shear maps shows this morning that shear is decreasing over it. Into the west...Its going to get interesting.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #87 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Nov 14, 2005 5:37 am

10 to 20 knots decrease over it in to the west...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Derecho · #88 Postby **Derecho** » Mon Nov 14, 2005 6:22 am

Sanibel wrote:I can't believe Bastardi this year. He was saying on Fox News a couple of nights ago to watch for a cyclone to develop in the eastern Caribbean. I was shouting at the screen "No Way Joe".

I feel stupid right now...

This storm was pretty clearly depicted on several models before two nights ago.

#89 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Nov 14, 2005 6:28 am

WHXX04 KWBC 141120
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SE 27L

INITIAL TIME 6Z NOV 14

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 14.0 63.0 295./ 8.0
6 14.2 63.6 291./ 6.2
12 14.9 64.3 313./ 9.9
18 15.2 64.9 297./ 6.4
24 15.8 65.6 308./ 9.0
30 16.1 66.7 290./10.6
36 16.5 68.0 286./12.8
42 16.8 69.6 278./15.4
48 16.3 71.3 256./17.1
54 16.0 72.4 255./11.7
60 16.0 73.2 268./ 7.6
66 15.8 74.4 261./11.2
72 15.4 75.2 248./ 8.9
78 15.5 76.2 275./ 8.7
84 15.6 77.2 275./10.1
90 15.8 78.2 278./ 9.3
96 15.7 79.1 265./ 9.0
102 15.7 80.2 271./10.5
108 15.5 81.1 259./ 8.7
114 15.3 81.6 251./ 5.4
120 15.2 81.9 250./ 3.4
126 15.4 82.2 309./ 3.4

6z GFDL

#90 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Nov 14, 2005 7:46 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEV (AL272005) ON 20051114 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051114 1200 051115 0000 051115 1200 051116 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.8N 63.3W 14.5N 64.3W 14.9N 65.1W 15.1N 66.0W
BAMM 13.8N 63.3W 14.5N 64.9W 14.8N 66.3W 14.9N 67.9W
A98E 13.8N 63.3W 14.2N 64.4W 14.3N 65.7W 14.4N 66.9W
LBAR 13.8N 63.3W 14.6N 64.3W 15.6N 65.1W 16.5N 65.7W
SHIP 30KTS 31KTS 33KTS 34KTS
DSHP 30KTS 31KTS 33KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051116 1200 051117 1200 051118 1200 051119 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.9N 66.8W 13.6N 68.9W 12.2N 71.8W 12.6N 74.7W
BAMM 14.8N 69.7W 14.4N 73.4W 14.7N 77.2W 15.9N 80.9W
A98E 14.6N 68.2W 14.4N 71.1W 14.3N 74.2W 15.0N 77.6W
LBAR 16.8N 65.8W 17.2N 63.8W 18.0N 58.6W 22.9N 51.2W
SHIP 37KTS 45KTS 51KTS 49KTS
DSHP 37KTS 45KTS 51KTS 49KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 63.3W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 62.1W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 12.4N LONM24 = 60.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

12:00z BAM Models.

Weatherfreak14 · #91 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Mon Nov 14, 2005 8:06 am

Whew, Gamma Commin

up.

HurricaneGirl · #92 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Mon Nov 14, 2005 8:13 am

Holy Crap! :eek:

#93 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Nov 14, 2005 8:14 am

HurricaneGirl wrote::eek: Holy Crap!

I knew it was comming.

#94 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Nov 14, 2005 8:46 am

944hPa, 120kt 950hPa winds in the 6am GMT GFDL run.

#95 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Nov 14, 2005 8:52 am

362

WTNT80 EGRR 140500

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 14.11.2005

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 13.8N 64.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 14.11.2005 13.8N 64.0W WEAK

00UTC 15.11.2005 14.8N 65.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 15.11.2005 14.7N 67.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 16.11.2005 15.2N 70.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 16.11.2005 14.7N 70.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 17.11.2005 14.6N 72.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 17.11.2005 13.9N 74.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 18.11.2005 14.5N 76.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 18.11.2005 14.5N 78.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 19.11.2005 15.3N 79.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.11.2005 15.4N 79.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 20.11.2005 17.1N 78.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 140500

#96 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Nov 14, 2005 8:53 am

is that convection starting to fire up on the other side?

#97 Postby **O Town** » Mon Nov 14, 2005 8:58 am

Sure looks that way. :uarrow:

I am too surprised to have one last hurah this season. I know its been a crazy season, but I am still a little shocked.

#98 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Nov 14, 2005 9:07 am

P.K. wrote:944hPa, 120kt 950hPa winds in the 6am GMT GFDL run.

Note that the GFDL doesn't recognize wind shear very well, so it tends to be much too agressive in deepening systems in a shear environment (as mentioned by the NHC in the latest discussion).

Visible satellite loops reveal a pretty pathetic depression. I don't think it even qualifies as a TD. Any LLC is very weak and detached from the mass of convection. Wind shear is very high. However, shear is starting to drop off. So if it isn't blown apart today, it may have a shot at becoming a TS or even a hurricane.

Mean flow next 3-5 days is to the west, as a large area of high pressure remains stationary over the Bahamas. But after Friday, the high breaks down as a trof deepens along the east coast. That means one of two possibilities for a track - continue W-WSW and inland into Nicaragua/Honduras or zipping off to the NE toward eastern Cuba, far eastern Bahamas, and out to sea. It may be a toss-up as to which is more likely. Perhaps:

40% -- dissipates
35% -- into Nicaragua/Honduras as a hurricane
25% -- Turns NE after day 5 toward eastern Cuba as a TS/Hurricane

#99 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Nov 14, 2005 9:13 am

That was mentioned in the last NHC discussion yes. However it has now developed this significantly for the last three runs in a row after those two runs where it didn't develop at all.

floridah · #100 Postby **floridah** » Mon Nov 14, 2005 9:15 am

Does anyone have a link to some graphic models??? Thanks

TD 27,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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