TD 27,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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jlauderdal
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#601 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:23 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
cjrciadt wrote: Numbers are higher than I thought over FL. The Jet Stream and the next front will kill this fairly quickly.


Wish I'd thought of that. :D
hehehe :wink:


exactly, post the shear map and that should kill off all this nonsense about a tropical system hitting florida. now lets get back to having some fun after a very long season
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wxman57
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#602 Postby wxman57 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:34 pm

I'm seeing pretty good signs of an LLC on the coast of Honduras near 16.1N/86.1W. That's where the recon plane is finding calm winds and a 1007 mb pressure. There are southwesterly winds to the south in Honduras on the hourly obs, but the center is too close to the coast, I think, for recon to fly into on the south side.

I think that there is enough evidence to call this "Gamma" shortly, unfortunately. Note that even the dymanic models (GFS, GFDL) are now indicating that eventually it may clip the southern Florida Peninsula. I think it's a good bet that the NHC track will move it across the southern tip fo Florida on Monday afternoon.

But as Airforce Met has been saying, the shear at will be tremendous by Sunday/Monday, not to mention all the lower-level dry air entrainment. So while Gamma could reach a peak intensity of 50 kts in the NW Caribbean in 24-48 hours, once it begins to accelerate NE toward western Cuba on Sunday it should be steadily weakening. By the time the "center" reaches south Florida, it may not be more than an elongated area of squalls displaced east of a low-level swirl.

Here's a current McIdas image with the location of the center plotted.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gamma2.gif">
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Tropics Guy
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#603 Postby Tropics Guy » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:36 pm

I agree, looking at the shear maps, any form of this, whether it's still just a tropical low, TD or even TS will get sheared to bits as it approaches South Fla with another Cold Front approaching the area Mon Eve. Think South Fla may get some rain out of this as the moisture will be streaming NE prior to the front.

TG
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#604 Postby SWFLMom » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:38 pm

CNN says we have GAMMA as of 3:38 pm
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cjrciadt
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#605 Postby cjrciadt » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:41 pm

Image
Gamma at FL landfall interesting.
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#606 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:41 pm

WE HAVE GAMMA!!! REMEMBER YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST!!!
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