TD 27,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[x-y-no]

Conditions look pretty good in that region barring excessive land interaction I can easily see this thing getting to strong TS or even Cat 1 status. But the GFDL run doesn't seem credible at all, given the forecast upper air conditions. If it really tracks over SFL, there's no way it's still tropical when it does so.

I expect significant rain and some good gusty conditions but no TS or hurricane here. Just as likely, the whole mess tracks south of us.

[mike815]

Whoa it looks really good thats for sure.

[drezee]

745
WONT41 KNHC 181400
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
900 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM LATER
TODAY. IF ADVISORIES ARE RE-INITIATED...WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN COAST AND
THE ADJACENT ISLANDS...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

EVEN IF NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...HEAVY RAINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

They will wait for recon to see what in reallity how strong the system is.

[DESTRUCTION5]

745
WONT41 KNHC 181400
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
900 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM LATER
TODAY. IF ADVISORIES ARE RE-INITIATED...WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN COAST AND
THE ADJACENT ISLANDS...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

EVEN IF NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...HEAVY RAINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Well TD27 will be whats its called for sure..

[CHRISTY]

HERE WE GO !!!!

[mike815]

YUP and thats what i figured there just going to wait for the plane to get accurate info on the storm.

[mike815]

YUP TD 27 ITS BACK...

[CHRISTY]

I THINK THEY WILL FIND GAMMA THIS AFTERNOON....

[drezee]

If the GFDL is right...The East will be cold after Gamma...928mb low pulling down the cold air

[mike815]

Yeah very cold geez.

[JamesFromMaine2]

Looks like the LLC is developing or has developed at around 16North just off the coast looks like the convection is wrapping around and starting to form what looks like a eye wall.

[mike815]

Thanks james for that. Yeah it looks like its around there.

[dixiebreeze]

Well, I got one right this season. I said early last week 27 NoName would navigate the YP channel on its way to ????

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looks like the LLC is developing or has developed at around 16North just off the coast looks like the convection is wrapping around and starting to form what looks like a eye wall.

This is Confirmation here IMO...This is Gamma..

[mike815]

Yeah even when TD 27 "dissipated" i never gave up on it.

[CHRISTY]

were is the confirmation....

[CHRISTY]

miss spoke... i agree this is gamma!

[mike815]

Take a look at what james posted there the proof. No though it is not yet official.

[JamesFromMaine2]

Once again windsat is still showing 60kts winds close to the center