TD 27,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[boca]

I thought systems aren't supposed to form in the unfavorable Eastern Caribbean,well this one did.This season is freaking me out like Boca_Chris stated in the other thread just shocking. HEY GAMMA LEAVE FLORIDA ALONE.

[SouthFloridawx]

stop saying anything to it... maybe it won't hear you

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Gulf is to unfaverable. But if it doe's become a major hurricane then into Florida. Then some one higher then us humans must not like Florida all that much.

[wxmann_91]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

It shows a ridge building over it...While the shear is to the northwest of it...Also look at 3 hour shear maps. It also shows decreasing shear.

I don't see either. Shear remains strong in TD 27's path, and there is no UL anticyclone anywhere near. Conditions remain marginal.

A random thought, where's Derek? I am interested to hear his thoughts.

you can tell the the shear is decreasing ahead of td 27 tonight ... just take a look at the ir and wv loop... it is decreasing as the convection fires up and draws closer to the center.....

Ah...good observation. WV loop does indeed show a rather significant decrease in shear tonight around TD 27.

[Recurve]

Keys to Tampa not out of the woods with this, and of course Cuba, Jamaica, Caymans, Cancun and Central America need to be watching closely. In the meantime, hoping rains don't cause havoc in Puerto Rico and nearby islands.

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthFloridawx]

check out this loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

recurve i like that name good choice

[fuzzyblow]

And it's look pretty humid on the road...

[SouthFloridawx]

[Recurve]

....
recurve i like that name good choice

I thought it was smart too, until Wilma did it and knocked the crap out of us. If it happens again I'm creating a new account.

And Hey! I hate that CMC graphic you posted. At least it's the CMC.
Blame Canada!

[SouthFloridawx]

....
recurve i like that name good choice

I thought it was smart too, until Wilma did it and knocked the crap out of us. If it happens again I'm creating a new account.

hah good idea... i used to like that too maybe it will do as cmc says and go east of us

[gatorcane]

STAY AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA GAMMA!!!!

Unfortunately the waters around the southern tip of FL can support hurricanes nearly year round....so GAMMA NEEDS TO STAY AWAY !!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This storm reminds me of Dennis/Charley it is forming near where they formed. 1# The SST's will be warm enough over the caribbean maybe a major if things come together. Which is upper high + high SST's.

2# We will need to watch for a trough/weakness in how far to the west the system gets. Then theres a chance that southern Florida could see a strong hurricane by late november. That is out of this world but it could happen.

Needs to be watched....

[Sanibel]

I can't believe Bastardi this year. He was saying on Fox News a couple of nights ago to watch for a cyclone to develop in the eastern Caribbean. I was shouting at the screen "No Way Joe".


I feel stupid right now...

[quandary]

Well... Gamma might become a "big" one as in "big" for normal times. It is very doubtful that it'll blow up into any of the monsters we've seen this year. However, a Cat 5 in November is possible, even though its never happened. Lenny was a top end Cat 4, 933mb, 155mph MSS, even late in November. Thus, November can be much more conducive to strong storm formation than June or July (which up until this year has not seen anything about 140mph or so). With the 2005 factor in play, anything remains possible.

Fortunately, the United States, especially the hardest hit regions, will undoubtably be spared a significant hit because waters up here are just not warm enough to support anything. 78F might be enough for a minimal hurricane, but its not enough to really support a purely tropical intense hurricane.

[Brent]

I can't believe Bastardi this year. He was saying on Fox News a couple of nights ago to watch for a cyclone to develop in the eastern Caribbean. I was shouting at the screen "No Way Joe".


I feel stupid right now...

He also said Wilma would be the last U.S. landfalling hurricane. Let's see if that holds true.

[Thunder44]

Well, looks like we are going to go through this one more time. Looks like it's developing well this morning, we may have Gamma by 5am.

[Praxus]

Gamma now ?



[/url]

[SouthFloridawx]

362

WTNT80 EGRR 140500



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 14.11.2005



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 13.8N 64.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 14.11.2005 13.8N 64.0W WEAK

00UTC 15.11.2005 14.8N 65.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 15.11.2005 14.7N 67.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 16.11.2005 15.2N 70.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 16.11.2005 14.7N 70.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 17.11.2005 14.6N 72.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 17.11.2005 13.9N 74.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 18.11.2005 14.5N 76.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 18.11.2005 14.5N 78.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 19.11.2005 15.3N 79.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.11.2005 15.4N 79.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 20.11.2005 17.1N 78.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY





THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT





MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



TOO 140500





[SouthFloridawx]

[tampaflwx]

wow this thing is really exploding tonight!

we saw this type of thing with wilma where those cold cloud tops (the grey in the IR) just kept expanding and getting more and more intense until bam it's a cat 5.

this thing could be on a similar path...it appears to be rapidly growing and intensifying and getting well organized...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html