TD Gamma Advisories

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TD Gamma Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:40 pm

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WTNT22 KNHC 182034
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005
2100Z FRI NOV 18 2005

AT 3 PM CST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE. THE
GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 3 PM CST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ALLEN. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 85.6W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 85.6W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 85.4W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.8N 86.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.3N 86.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 35SE 35SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.2N 87.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 90NE 35SE 35SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.0N 86.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 25.0N 82.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 35.0N 71.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 85.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

FORECASTER BEVEN
Last edited by cycloneye on Sun Nov 20, 2005 9:41 pm, edited 12 times in total.
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#2 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:43 pm

Image
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#3 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:43 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
3 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN RE-GENERATES...BECOMES TROPICAL
STORM GAMMA...

AT 3 PM CST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE. THE
GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 3 PM CST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ALLEN. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 3 PM CST...2100Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 65 KM...NORTH OF
LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT 190 MILES... 300 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BELIZE CITY BELIZE.

GAMMA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH
... 7 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE AS THE CENTER
RE-FORMS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS REPORTED
THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE WESTERN
BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER BELIZE...WESTERN CUBA...AND
THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS.

REPEATING THE 4 PM EST POSITION...16.4 N... 85.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM EST.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#4 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:45 pm

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
3 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2005

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-SEVEN HAVE REFORMED INTO A BROAD CIRCULATION ELONGATED
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF 49 KT AT 1500 FT JUST NORTH OF ROATAN ISLAND...ALONG WITH
TWO SPOTS OF 45 KT WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS...
ADVISORIES ARE RE-INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM AS TROPICAL STORM GAMMA
WITH 35 KT WINDS. WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CYCLONE IS
SLOWLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...THE CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR THE
CENTER HAVE WARMED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CIRRUS
OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND POOR TO RESTRICTED
ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 300/04...WITH ADDITIONAL
UNCERTAINTY ADDED BY THE ELONGATION OF THE CENTER. GAMMA IS
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST THESE
RIDGES TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 72 HR AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER EITHER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION
SHOULD TURN GAMMA NORTHWARD AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD.
WHILE THERE IS AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN...THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF GAMMA...AS MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST DISSIPATION IN 72 HR OR LESS. THE GFS AND NOGAPS
FORECAST A VERY WEAK GAMMA TO TURN EASTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...
WHILE THE GFDL BRINGS A STRONGER GAMMA TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LEANS MORE ON THE GFDL ON THE BASIS THAT IT
HAS A STRONGER SYSTEM MORE IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
HOWEVER...IF GAMMA DOES NOT HOLD TOGETHER AS WELL AS FORECAST THE
MOTION COULD BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS.

GAMMA IS IN A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AT THIS TIME. SHEAR
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW 15-25 KT OF
SHEAR ACROSS THE STORM...AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 72 HR. IN ADDITION...GAMMA
IS CLOSE TO A FRONTAL ZONE...AND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME
STRONGER AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. THE GFDL MODEL CALLS
FOR GAMMA TO REACH 55 KT IN ABOUT 72 HR...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL
BARELY STRENGTHENS IT DUE TO SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE GFDL GUIDANCE AND CALL FOR A 55 KT INTENSITY IN 72 HR...
ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR THIS MIGHT BE GENEROUS.
AFTER 72 HR...GAMMA SHOULD RAPIDLY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
AND ITS IDENTITY AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE STRONG BAROCLINIC LOW
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC LOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SWEEP
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SO EVEN IF GAMMA TAKES A MORE EASTWARD
TRACK AS FORECAST BY THE GFS AND NOGAPS THE FRONT WILL STILL
PROBABLY CATCH UP WITH THE STORM.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 16.4N 85.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 16.8N 86.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 17.3N 86.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 18.2N 87.1W 50 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 86.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 25.0N 82.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 35.0N 71.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 23/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
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#5 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Nov 18, 2005 6:58 pm

When will the newest advisories come in?
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#6 Postby aerojad » Fri Nov 18, 2005 7:02 pm

7 central
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#7 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 18, 2005 7:03 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2005

...GAMMA STILL DISORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
AND FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ALLEN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 6 PM CST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST OR ABOUT
35 MILES... 55 KM... NORTH OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT 180
MILES... 290 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE.

GAMMA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH...
6 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS... ALTHOUGH SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE.

EARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 70
KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER BELIZE...WESTERN CUBA...AND
THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS.

REPEATING THE 6 PM CST POSITION...16.2 N... 85.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
9 PM CST.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#8 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 18, 2005 7:04 pm

aerojad wrote:7 central


Nope... due to the time change last month, the advisories come out an hour earlier, 10pm, 1am, 4am, 7am, 10am, 1pm, 4pm, 7pm EST.
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#9 Postby aerojad » Fri Nov 18, 2005 7:05 pm

Oh, well crap :/


silly time changes
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#10 Postby sprink52 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 7:56 pm

You know what....we really don't need this. :x
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#11 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 18, 2005 9:47 pm

175
WTNT32 KNHC 190246
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2005

...GAMMA MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE COAST OF HONDURAS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
AND FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ALLEN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 9 PM CST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST OR ABOUT
45 MILES... 70 KM... NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT
175 MILES... 285 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY.

GAMMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS... ALTHOUGH SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES... 165 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER BELIZE...WESTERN CUBA...AND
THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS.

REPEATING THE 9 PM CST POSITION...16.4 N... 85.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 12 AM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 3 AM
CST.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#12 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 18, 2005 9:47 pm

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005
0300Z SAT NOV 19 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
AND FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ALLEN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 85.8W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 85.8W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 85.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.8N 86.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.4N 86.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 35SE 35SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.8N 87.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 35SE 35SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.8N 85.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 35SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 25.0N 81.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 34.0N 70.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 85.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB
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#13 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 18, 2005 10:17 pm

407
WTNT42 KNHC 190308
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2005

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT... ON ITS LAST LEG ALONG THE
NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS EARLIER THIS EVENING JUST BEFORE
22Z... DID NOT MEASURE ANY WESTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER... SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN HONDURAS SUGGESTED WESTERLY
WINDS FARTHER SOUTH... SO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AT THAT TIME. MORE RECENT IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS EDGED NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST
AT A FORWARD SPEED OF ABOUT 4 KT. A MID-LEVEL CENTER IS APPARENT
IN THE COLDER INFRARED TOPS FARTHER NORTH... WITH THE TILTING
LIKELY CAUSED BY THE SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR. ALSO ON ITS LAST LEG...
THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 1500-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT. 00Z
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BASED ON THE CURVED BANDING IN THE
MID-LEVELS ARE ONLY 30 KT... BUT A SHEAR PATTERN USING A MORE
SOUTHERN CENTER LOCATION YIELDS A STRONGER ESTIMATE. THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT MAINLY BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT
DATA... BUT IT IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH A 2330Z QUIKSCAT PASS.

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN FORECASTING AN EXTRATROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN A
LITTLE MORE THAN TWO DAYS... IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THE MODELS
ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT... HOWEVER... ON WHAT WILL BE LEFT OF GAMMA BY
THAT TIME. MOST OF THEM FORECAST A TRACK THAT SEEMS TOO FAR TO THE
WEST OVER YUCATAN AND TOO SLOW... GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL LIKELY DRAG GAMMA MORE NORTHWARD OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... WHILE SHEARING THE SYSTEM AND FORCING
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO STAY CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION. THE MODELS
OFTEN DO NOT FORECAST THE TRACK WELL FOR SHEARED SYSTEMS... AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS CLOSER TO THE DIRECTION IN WHICH THE SHEAR
IS POINTED. BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS... ONCE THE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S... THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST...
LIKE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... KEEPS GAMMA MOVING ALONG WITH THAT
SYSTEM EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE MODELS ARE MUCH SLOWER.

THE WIND SHEAR WILL ONLY GET STRONGER AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
THEREFORE... CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING... AND INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE SEEMS RATHER
UNLIKELY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. THE GFDL NOW FORECASTS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AND PEAKS AT ABOUT 45 KT.
THE SHIPS IS SIMILAR BUT FORECASTS A DECLINE AFTER 24 HOURS AS THE
SHEAR INCREASES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... ANTICIPATING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM BUT
OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL GAMMA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND
EVENTUALLY IS ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM OVER
THE ATLANTIC.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.4N 85.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 16.8N 86.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 17.4N 86.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 18.8N 87.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 20.8N 85.6W 45 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 25.0N 81.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 34.0N 70.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 24/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM


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#14 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 11:39 pm

ZCZC MIATCUAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2005

AT 10 PM CST... 0400Z... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO PUNTA GRUESA. THE TROPICAL STORM STORM
WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA
TO TULUM.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#15 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 19, 2005 12:50 am

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2005

...GAMMA SLOWLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM
THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
AND FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA GRUESA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO TULUM.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 AM EST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT
155 MILES... 250 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY AND ABOUT 185
MILES... 295 KM... SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA GRUESA MEXICO.

GAMMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER... SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY ALSO OCCUR DUE TO WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES... 165 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER BELIZE...WESTERN CUBA...AND
THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS
HONDURAS AND BELIZE LATER TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1 AM EST POSITION...16.7 N... 86.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 4 AM EST.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#16 Postby P.K. » Sat Nov 19, 2005 3:50 am

WTNT42 KNHC 190833
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2005

SINCE THE LAST RECON FLIGHT... DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER
AND NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER... AND HAS ALSO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY
BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45 KT
FROM TAFB AND T2.5/35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/05. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 00Z...
ALBEIT LIMITED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AREA EXCEPT FOR BELIZE...
INDICATE A BREAK IN THE 500 MB AND 400 MB RIDGE AXES ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...YUCATAN CHANNEL... WESTERN CUBA AND
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF GAMMA IS ALSO BEGINNING TO APPEAR AT THE 700 MB LEVEL. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALONG 85W LONGITUDE AND THE
MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SHOULD OPEN AN ALLEY FOR GAMMA TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT... A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS CURRENTLY OVER THE U.S. PLAINS STATES ARE FORECAST BY ALL
THE MODELS TO MERGE AND DEVELOP INTO A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HOURS. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW NORTH OF 20N LATITUDE BY 60-72 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
GAMMA LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CUBA... THE
BAHAMAS... AND POSSIBLY SOUTH FLORIDA. THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE
GAMMA OR KEEP IT TRAPPED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS... WHICH SEEMS UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE VERTICALLY DEEP
CIRCULATION NOTED IN THE 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA. AS SUCH...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFDL SOLUTION SINCE THAT MODEL
MAINTAINS A DEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 120 HOURS.

SINCE SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS GAMMA
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD... ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 16.9N 86.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 17.5N 86.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 18.4N 86.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 86.3W 45 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 22.0N 84.3W 45 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 26.0N 79.0W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 23/0600Z 38.0N 67.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 24/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

----------------------------------------------------

WTNT32 KNHC 190841
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2005

...TROPICAL STORM GAMMA CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AWAY
FROM HONDURAS AND BELIZE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
AND FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA GRUESA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO TULUM. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 AM EST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES... 225 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY AND ABOUT 245
MILES... 390 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO.

GAMMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER
TODAY. HOWEVER... SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY ALSO OCCUR DUE TO WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER NORTHERN BELIZE...WESTERN
CUBA...AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL SHOULD GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE ACROSS NORTHERN BELIZE LATER TODAY.

REPEATING THE 4 AM EST POSITION...16.9 N... 86.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM EST.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#17 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 19, 2005 6:58 am

668
WTNT32 KNHC 191155
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2005

...GAMMA MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
AND FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA GRUESA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BELIZE WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO TULUM.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 6 AM CST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST OR ABOUT 130
MILES... 205 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY AND ABOUT 230
MILES... 365 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO.

GAMMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER NORTHERN BELIZE...WESTERN
CUBA...AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL SHOULD GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE ACROSS NORTHERN BELIZE LATER TODAY.

REPEATING THE 6 AM CST POSITION...17.1 N... 86.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 9 AM CST.

FORECASTER STEWART

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#18 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 19, 2005 9:35 am

201
WTNT32 KNHC 191431
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2005

...GAMMA RE-LOCATED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST...MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...

AT 9 AM CST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BELIZE SOUTH
OF BELIZE CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE MEXICO
BORDER...AND FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO
PUNTA GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO
TULUM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA.

AT 9 AM CST...1500Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT
160 MILES... 255 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY AND ABOUT
255 MILES... 415 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO.

GAMMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN BELIZE
AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAIN BANDS TRAILING GAMMA
COULD CAUSE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS
OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.

REPEATING THE 9 AM CST POSITION...16.8 N... 85.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT NOON CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 3 PM CST.

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$





553
WTNT22 KNHC 191431
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005
1500Z SAT NOV 19 2005

AT 9 AM CST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BELIZE SOUTH
OF BELIZE CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE MEXICO
BORDER...AND FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO
PUNTA GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO
TULUM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 85.9W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 85.9W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 85.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.6N 86.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 35SE 35SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.7N 86.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 35SE 35SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.0N 85.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 35SE 35SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.9N 84.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 35SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 27.5N 76.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 85.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

FORECASTER BEVEN

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#19 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 19, 2005 9:52 am

WTNT42 KNHC 191452
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2005

VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE DATA FROM TRMM AND SSM/I
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF GAMMA IS A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...NEAR THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. THIS POSITION IS INDICATIVE
OF THE 20-30 KT VERTICAL SHEAR ANALYZED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB...AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND
AFWA. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 330/4. GAMMA IS SOUTH OF A
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...AND BETWEEN TWO SEGMENTS OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
LARGE-SCALE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY AGREE THAT THESE RIDGES WILL BREAK
DOWN DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HR AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CAUSES
A FRONTAL LOW TO FORM OVER FLORIDA OR THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE GAMMA TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD OR POSSIBLY
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKER GAMMA TURNING MORE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...WHILE THE GFDL WITH ITS STRONGER STORM
CALLS FOR A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO...BUT
SOUTH OF...THE GFDL...AND IS NUDGED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. THIS
IS STILL A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN FORECAST...AND ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO
THE TRACK COULD OCCUR LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT BASED ON DATA FROM THE
FLIGHT OF THE NOAA G4 JET STARTING AT 18Z.

GAMMA IS ALREADY UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO INCREASE
DURING THE NEXT 72 HR. THIS SHOULD NOT ALLOW GAMMA TO STRENGTHEN
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE SHIPS MODEL WEAKENS THE SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFDL
CALLS FOR IT TO PEAK AT 60 KT IN ABOUT 48 HR. THE LATTER MIGHT BE
A BIT OPTIMISTIC IN LIGHT OF THE FORECAST SHEAR. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IN THE FIRST 12
HR...THEN KEEP THE INTENSITY AT 45 KT THROUGH THE REST OF THE LIFE
OF THE CYCLONE. THE BAROCLINIC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE
FORECAST TO BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT...REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK
OF GAMMA...THEY SHOULD ABSORB GAMMA AFTER 72 HR.

THE RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER MIGHT BE A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE NEW ADVISORY POSITION. IF THIS IS THE
CASE...AN ADDITIONAL RE-LOCATION MAY BE NECESSARY AFTER THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER REACHES THE STORM AROUND 18Z.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 16.8N 85.9W 40 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 17.6N 86.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 18.7N 86.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 20.0N 85.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 21.9N 84.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 27.5N 76.0W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 23/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW


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cycloneye
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#20 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 19, 2005 12:54 pm

534
WTNT32 KNHC 191751
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
NOON CST SAT NOV 19 2005

...DISORGANIZED GAMMA AGAIN RE-LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE MEXICO BORDER...AND FOR
THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
FROM THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA GRUESA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO
TULUM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA.

AT NOON CST...1800Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS
RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST OR ABOUT
220 MILES... 335 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY AND ABOUT
315 MILES... 505 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO.

GAMMA IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD. A NORTHWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...
75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT GAMMA
HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND ONLY
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN BELIZE
AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAIN BANDS TRAILING GAMMA
COULD CAUSE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS
OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.

REPEATING THE NOON CST POSITION...16.2 N... 85.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM CST.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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