TD GAMMA,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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#321 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Nov 19, 2005 11:16 pm

If this can out run the shear+front it could stay in a faverable area like Wilma or Charley. But thats not very likely.
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#322 Postby Forecaster Colby » Sat Nov 19, 2005 11:17 pm

That is theoretically possible but...I don't want to even think about it. DIE GAMMA DIE!!!
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#323 Postby Damar91 » Sat Nov 19, 2005 11:37 pm

Possible loop?
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#324 Postby Forecaster Colby » Sun Nov 20, 2005 12:10 am

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My forecast for tonight (Not official nor Storm2k endorced)


Gamma continues to hold on, despite massive southwesterly shear. Though the system looks truly terrible on satellite imagery...RECON found flight-level winds as high as 53kt...so Gamma is a 40kt Tropical Storm for this advisory. It is worth noting that the low forecast to develop into a strong nor'easter is beginning to form. Several relocations of the center have been made today,

The track forecast looked fairly simple this evening, with the storm tracking NE or ENE through the western caribbean into Cuba. However...18z models have...apparently...gone completely insane. The great majority of reliable models, including the GFDL and GFS ensamble, have lined up around a scenario unheard-of in tropical history...with the storm tracking nearly due southward past 24 hours, and the system reaching South America from the north as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane. The models do occasionally have fluke runs, or bad data, so the track forecast will take the system over Cuba for now...but if the trend persists a large southward shift will have to be made.

The intensity forecast is also problematic. Should Gamma move east-northeastward as is currently forecast, vertical shear should destroy the circulation within 36 hours. However, a southeast motion may get the system away from the shear quickly enough to save Gamma, and give it...for a third time...a shot at hurricane strength. The current forecast calls for dissipation off the Cuban coast, followed by a rapid northward motion over the atlantic as a remnant low before being absorbed by the extratropical low mentioned above.

Initial: 16.0N 85.0W 40kt
12 Hour: 16.5N 84.5W 35kt
24 Hour: 17.5N 83.5W 30kt...dissipating
48 Hour: 19.0N 79.0W 25kt...remnant low
72 Hour: 22.0N 76.0W 25kt...remnant low
96 Hour: 27.0N 75.5W 30kt...being absorbed
120 Hour: Absorbed by extratropical low
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#325 Postby Forecaster Colby » Sun Nov 20, 2005 2:19 am

The good news is, the GFDL no longer shows a track into South America.

The laughable news is that it takes a Cat 3 through the straights of Florida :lol: :lol:
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#326 Postby quandary » Sun Nov 20, 2005 3:10 am

Why is 93L still up on the NRL site. Both Gamma and 93L are being displayed there.
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#327 Postby bvigal » Sun Nov 20, 2005 6:31 am

Looks pretty well dissipating this morning. Glad to see that (sorry fans, ready for this season to just die already!) Oh, and those in Carib who remember Lenny will not quit watching this until ALL convection has gone "poof". :wink:
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#328 Postby wxman57 » Sun Nov 20, 2005 7:03 am

R.I.P. Gamma. I think that when we get a visible loop in 3-4 hours that we'll have a hard time finding an LLC any more. Recon couldn't find any FL wind over 37 kts a few hours ago and the NHC STILL couldn't just admit Gamma wes not a TS. Now, with only low-level stratus clouds remaining, it has been officially downgraded to a depression, though it may be a wave. Now I can head to Mississippi to fix my mother's house!
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#329 Postby dougjp » Sun Nov 20, 2005 7:47 am

7 PM last night and the official track was over Cuba. Now it isn't close. 7 PM last night the official track indicated Tropical Storm strength for 2 more days from then, despite their own discussion describing a tropical depression rather than a TS at that time. NHC was excellent through the year however with this one, they couldn't have been much worse.

RIP tropical cyclone season, hopefully.
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#330 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 20, 2005 7:49 am

I better watch the remanants as they may pass close or over Puerto Rico :roll: as it will be a Lenny type movement but of course not the intensity of a cat 4 like Lenny was.
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#331 Postby WindRunner » Sun Nov 20, 2005 9:23 am

I'm going to go way out on a limb and say that 10am will most likely be the last advisory, I really don't see much of a circulation or much convection.

Image
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#332 Postby Anonymous » Sun Nov 20, 2005 9:41 am

wxman57 wrote:Recon couldn't find any FL wind over 37 kts a few hours ago and the NHC STILL couldn't just admit Gamma wes not a TS.


They are the NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...I think they know what they are doing.
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#333 Postby Air Force Met » Sun Nov 20, 2005 9:55 am

~Floydbuster wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Recon couldn't find any FL wind over 37 kts a few hours ago and the NHC STILL couldn't just admit Gamma wes not a TS.


They are the NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...I think they know what they are doing.


It's called keeping continuity "just in case." Of course they knew it wasn't a TS, but why downgrade just to have to upgrade 6 hours later if it fires back up?
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#334 Postby wxman57 » Sun Nov 20, 2005 9:56 am

~Floydbuster wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Recon couldn't find any FL wind over 37 kts a few hours ago and the NHC STILL couldn't just admit Gamma wes not a TS.


They are the NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...I think they know what they are doing.


It's not a question of knowing what they're doing, it's a matter of admitting when a storm is not a storm any longer. That's something they've always had a hard time doing. They are good forecaters there, but they tend to err in the side of caution a little too much at times.
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#335 Postby Brent » Sun Nov 20, 2005 10:00 am

10am isn't the final advisory, but geez, it looks terrible. The final advisory WILL be before the day is over unless something dramatic happens.
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#336 Postby WindRunner » Sun Nov 20, 2005 10:06 am

Brent wrote:10am isn't the final advisory, but geez, it looks terrible. The final advisory WILL be before the day is over unless something dramatic happens.


Yeah, I'm a little surprised, but there is that little tiny flareup that's semi-near the still well-defined LLC. Anyway, Gamma will definately be over today.
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#337 Postby cjrciadt » Sun Nov 20, 2005 10:48 am

Image
Exposed LLC?
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#338 Postby wxman57 » Sun Nov 20, 2005 10:54 am

cjrciadt wrote:Image
Exposed LLC?


You got it. Just an explsed eddy now. It'll just hang around waiting to be absorbed by the approaching front.
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#339 Postby Forecaster Colby » Sun Nov 20, 2005 10:54 am

I have found that though the NHC has very smart and skilled people there, they make some foolish policies:

-Erring on the side of caution for T.Ds/weak T.Ss and underestimating the big ones.
-Relying on the models when their instincts tell them otherwise. I called Katrina and Rita's nutso strenthening based purely on instict and the conditions, and someone at the NHC had to have felt the same.
-Trying to validate previous forecasts. The NHC leans towards what they forecasted 24 hours ago (like with Gamma, they didn't forecast dissipation), even with evidence to the contrary.

Don't get me wrong, I have a good deal of respect for the NHC, they did a great job when most storms followed climatology and norms in a given situation, but that isn't true recently...and I think it's time they recognize it.
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#340 Postby wxman57 » Sun Nov 20, 2005 11:03 am

This developing low in the Gulf is already stronger than TD Gamma. Of course, it's destined to be the northeast U.S. "bomb" in the next few days - the first big snow storm of the season. So it would be pointless to call it a TD:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/noreaster.gif">
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