TD GAMMA,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[quandary]

Darn, I was hoping this would be considered a new storm and be named Delta. I'm not too comfortable with a three-storm lead over the West-Pac.

It would not be named Delta, it would still be named Gamma, but the number would have been 28.

[TPAcane]

On the flip side, could this storm transition to hybrid before hitting Florida making a seamlessly harmless TS a tornadic monster. Mets saying cyclogenesis will be taking place in either the NE GOMex or SE Atlantic off FL GA border. Cold front on Sun-Mon supposedly a monster. Interestingly enough too, Wilma was expected to be sheared before hitting SW Florida and somehow that shear never appeared. In fact, if I recall Derek Ortt's explanation, Wilma actually hooked up with a 60-70kt jet which helped it strengthen, not weaken as it approached Florida. Could this happen now? November can be tricky and nasty. Look at all the tornadoes in the Midwest. Anything is possible. Very complex forecasting.

[ido]

er, any shot in you know where that this is any threat at all to Louisiana? Understand my concern...........

[MiamiensisWx]

On the flip side, could this storm transition to hybrid before hitting Florida making a seamlessly harmless TS a tornadic monster. Mets saying cyclogenesis will be taking place in either the NE GOMex or SE Atlantic off FL GA border. Cold front on Sun-Mon supposedly a monster. Interestingly enough too, Wilma was expected to be sheared before hitting SW Florida and somehow that shear never appeared. In fact, if I recall Derek Ortt's explanation, Wilma actually hooked up with a 60-70kt jet which helped it strengthen, not weaken as it approached Florida. Could this happen now? November can be tricky and nasty. Look at all the tornadoes in the Midwest. Anything is possible. Very complex forecasting.

That is why, even if I sound stupid and shouldn't panic, I am closely monitoring it.

[Damar91]

Absolutely not! Unless of course the cold fronts suddenly dissapate.

[jusforsean]

Ok... Here we go again:
I am not one to panic so to speak but i think my tarp would fly off if someone sneezed too hard:) Wind and rain we dont need!
I have been wondering with the cold front moving in and the storm passing thru with the cold and hot and rotation arent we just asking for major tonadoe outbreaks or not? Just curious???? Thanks

[ido]

Ima holdin ya to that!!!

[Damar91]

..HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES GAMMA A LITTLE STRONGER...

...SHORTLY BEFORE 500 PM EST... 2200Z... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH.

FORECASTER KNABB

Unbelieveable.

[danman]

Unbelieveable.

I'm not suprised at all. You should always error on the side of caution; EXPECT the unexpected.

[Damar91]

I only say unbelieveable because the convection is very weak.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ok its back to tracking for me

[ronjon]

Well, all I can say for those GFDL naysayers is that it was right on target with Wilma - both path and intensity forecast. It also correctly predicted the SW turn of KAT into the everglades. Folks, it's about the best tropical model (outside the FSU superensemble which is not publically available) there is. Could it end up going S of the keys, sure. Could it track a little further up the west coast of FL, ditto. I wouldn't get too excited - a moderate tropical storm, perhaps. What a season? With the polar vortex coming down and all the cold air rushing south after this storm departs - this should finally close the book on the 2005 record breaking season.

[txwatcher91]

Looks like Gamma is flaring convection near the center again.

[TPAcane]

Keep in mind in relation to shear, the graphics show this thing covering an immense area of real estate between Sunday and Monday. Similiar to Wilma but even faster. So if there are 30-40kts of shear and this thing is moving at 30-40kts, very little displacement of the vertical stacking. Interesting side note, as Wilma ended our Summer temps in the Tampa Bay area, the backside of this storm promises some good freezes in the area. And to think I wanted to head North to feel the real Thanksgiving weather with my family...HA...HA....HA!

[mike815]

YEAH I KNOW RIGHT IT WILL BE A COLD THANKSGIVING AND IM EXCITED ABOUT THAT I LOVE THE COLD.

[danman]

I only say unbelieveable because the convection is very weak.

I only say that because you are posting biased replies all over these forums in favor of weakening. dont be weak! in fact you LIVE in florida so you should be even more carefull. a 1% chance of gamma hitting florida should make you concerned.

[mike815]

yup tru always watching.

[HurricaneGirl]

We have Gamma Holy Crap!!

[Damar91]

I only say unbelieveable because the convection is very weak.

I only say that because you are posting biased replies all over these forums in favor of weakening. dont be weak! in fact you LIVE in florida so you should be even more carefull. a 1% chance of gamma hitting florida should make you concerned.

Ok, how exactly am I being biased?

[txwatcher91]

Is it me or does it appear an "eye" is forming just south of the blowup in convection?
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html