TD GAMMA,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

TD GAMMA,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:41 pm

Ok folks here it is.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sun Nov 20, 2005 7:13 am, edited 5 times in total.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cjrciadt
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1615
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:11 pm
Location: Kissimmee, FL

#2 Postby cjrciadt » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:42 pm

Image
Image
Last edited by cjrciadt on Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 33
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

#3 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:43 pm

WE HAVE GAMMA!!! REMEMBER YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST!!!
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#4 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:44 pm

24TH!!!!
0 likes   

jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#5 Postby jkt21787 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:44 pm

Let's just repost the forecast/advisory and shear maps before boca_chris starts calling for a major hurricane in FL...
0 likes   

User avatar
Damar91
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 551
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:06 pm
Location: Coral Springs, FL

#6 Postby Damar91 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:44 pm

Do they really think it will survive all that sheer?
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37041
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#7 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:45 pm

GAMMA IS IN A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AT THIS TIME. SHEAR
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW 15-25 KT OF
SHEAR ACROSS THE STORM...AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 72 HR. IN ADDITION...GAMMA
IS CLOSE TO A FRONTAL ZONE...AND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME
STRONGER AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. THE GFDL MODEL CALLS
FOR GAMMA TO REACH 55 KT IN ABOUT 72 HR...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL
BARELY STRENGTHENS IT DUE TO SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE GFDL GUIDANCE AND CALL FOR A 55 KT INTENSITY IN 72 HR...
ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR THIS MIGHT BE GENEROUS.

AFTER 72 HR...GAMMA SHOULD RAPIDLY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
AND ITS IDENTITY AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE STRONG BAROCLINIC LOW
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC LOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SWEEP
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SO EVEN IF GAMMA TAKES A MORE EASTWARD
TRACK AS FORECAST BY THE GFS AND NOGAPS THE FRONT WILL STILL
PROBABLY CATCH UP WITH THE STORM.
Last edited by Brent on Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 33
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

#8 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:45 pm

The First Five Day Track for Gamma, and I'm in it... :( :grrr: :(
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
mike815
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1460
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 8:21 am
Location: palm bay fl

#9 Postby mike815 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:46 pm

I KNEW IT WOW TRACK LOOK FERMILUR? LANDFALL ON A MON. TOO. HMM. so similir to wilma though it will be very much weaker it probably still will cause problems.
0 likes   

jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#10 Postby jkt21787 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:46 pm

Brent wrote:GAMMA IS IN A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AT THIS TIME. SHEAR
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW 15-25 KT OF
SHEAR ACROSS THE STORM...AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 72 HR. IN ADDITION...GAMMA
IS CLOSE TO A FRONTAL ZONE...AND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME
STRONGER AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. THE GFDL MODEL CALLS
FOR GAMMA TO REACH 55 KT IN ABOUT 72 HR...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL
BARELY STRENGTHENS IT DUE TO SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE GFDL GUIDANCE AND CALL FOR A 55 KT INTENSITY IN 72 HR...
ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR THIS MIGHT BE GENEROUS.

AFTER 72 HR...GAMMA SHOULD RAPIDLY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
AND ITS IDENTITY AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE STRONG BAROCLINIC LOW
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC LOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SWEEP
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SO EVEN IF GAMMA TAKES A MORE EASTWARD
TRACK AS FORECAST BY THE GFS AND NOGAPS THE FRONT WILL STILL
PROBABLY CATCH UP WITH THE STORM.

Good job by Beven. Floridians should pay close attention to this portion of the discussion and not get overly excited over this.
0 likes   

User avatar
Damar91
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 551
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:06 pm
Location: Coral Springs, FL

#11 Postby Damar91 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:47 pm

Welcome to our world! ( florida!)
0 likes   

User avatar
mike815
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1460
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 8:21 am
Location: palm bay fl

#12 Postby mike815 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:48 pm

Yeah i know this is still amazing. Think about it late Nov. And just the threat of a TS and the 3rd letter in the greek alphabet.
0 likes   

User avatar
cjrciadt
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1615
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:11 pm
Location: Kissimmee, FL

#13 Postby cjrciadt » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:51 pm

Image
First wind prob, looking at the bottom have for this storm
0 likes   

User avatar
Canelaw99
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2112
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:27 am
Location: Homestead, FL

#14 Postby Canelaw99 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:52 pm

:hoola: We've got Gamma! As long as it's a small trop. storm, if that and doesn't screw up my T-giving camping plans, I'll be ok :)
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37041
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#15 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:53 pm

Canelaw99 wrote::hoola: We've got Gamma! As long as it's a small trop. storm, if that and doesn't screw up my T-giving camping plans, I'll be ok :)


It'll be a very distant memory by Thanksgiving. :wink:
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Canelaw99
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2112
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:27 am
Location: Homestead, FL

#16 Postby Canelaw99 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:54 pm

Well, we already had to alter our location thanks to Wilma - grrr...Everglades parks were still closed last week. We're now going over towards Naples, so I don't want trees down, roads closed, etc., so I'm holding you to that Brent ;)
0 likes   

schmita
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 205
Joined: Fri May 21, 2004 4:35 pm
Location: Sint Maarten/ 18.05 N 63.12 W

#17 Postby schmita » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:57 pm

Can someone give me the date "Backwards" Lenny hit us here in the islands? I believe it was around this time in November of 1999?
Thanks
irina
0 likes   

Dick Pache
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 155
Age: 83
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 7:00 pm
Location: TGU Honduras 14.047N, 87.218W

#18 Postby Dick Pache » Fri Nov 18, 2005 4:00 pm

Roatan Island East of Honduras

Winds N to 40-45 MPH

Pressure dropping 29.583"

http://63.245.92.231/Current/Current_custom.htm

Thanks to Artist
0 likes   

User avatar
Cookiely
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3211
Age: 73
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 7:31 am
Location: Tampa, Florida

#19 Postby Cookiely » Fri Nov 18, 2005 4:01 pm

Gamma I sure wish you would come to Tampa because we can sure use some rain. Pretty please.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37041
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#20 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 18, 2005 4:06 pm

schmita wrote:Can someone give me the date "Backwards" Lenny hit us here in the islands? I believe it was around this time in November of 1999?
Thanks
irina


November 13-21.

Image

6 years ago today it was sitting right over your head.
0 likes   
#neversummer


Return to “2005”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests