TD GAMMA,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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WindRunner
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#341 Postby WindRunner » Sun Nov 20, 2005 11:12 am

Forecaster Colby wrote:I have found that though the NHC has very smart and skilled people there, they make some foolish policies:

-Erring on the side of caution for T.Ds/weak T.Ss and underestimating the big ones.
-Relying on the models when their instincts tell them otherwise. I called Katrina and Rita's nutso strenthening based purely on instict and the conditions, and someone at the NHC had to have felt the same.
-Trying to validate previous forecasts. The NHC leans towards what they forecasted 24 hours ago (like with Gamma, they didn't forecast dissipation), even with evidence to the contrary.

Don't get me wrong, I have a good deal of respect for the NHC, they did a great job when most storms followed climatology and norms in a given situation, but that isn't true recently...and I think it's time they recognize it.


There is reasoning behind every one of there desicions, and basing forecasts on continuity is to ensure that the models didn't go crazy for one or two runs, or that a strange flux in a particular feature isn't temporary. If they were to immediately change their forecast every time they or the models saw a change in what is most likely going to happen, then the forecasts would be flying all over the place and people would tend to trust the forecasts less and less, as a sudden shift from a landfall in Miami up to SC and then back to Melbourne and then keeping it fish would just look very unintelligent to most people, especially the public and media. While the overall forecasts might be a little slow to change, the NHC will make the calls as they see fit and do it without making sudden changes to a track until it seems that the new track is not some weird run. They do this because they must account for error, and trying to make suddent changes to forecasts will, in the long run, not effect the error at all, or possibly make it worse, as I'm sure you remeber the times this season the NHC has not changed there forecast to comply with strange model runs that have lasted for over a day. The NHC turned out to be right in those cases, and better warning was provided for the locations in the path of the storm. Sure, sometimes it works the other way too, but we can't eliminate all error, and being slow to change from something that makes sense and works seems like a much better strategy than jumping around like a second grader playing hopscotch.
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#342 Postby Forecaster Colby » Sun Nov 20, 2005 11:15 am

I'm not suggesting they jump as the models do...most models are horribly inaccurate. But if a storm makes an obvious turn (ala Katrina to the SW) they need to adjust immidiately.
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#343 Postby WindRunner » Sun Nov 20, 2005 11:21 am

Forecaster Colby wrote:I'm not suggesting they jump as the models do...most models are horribly inaccurate. But if a storm makes an obvious turn (ala Katrina to the SW) they need to adjust immidiately.


I see what you are saying, just making a point that the NHC does not have foolish policies. I understand that you have respect for them as you said, I just think that you need to remember that the NHC know these storms aren't following climo, as they indicated back in July, and they have had to handle some of the most powerful and most difficult to forecast storms this year. I could care less about how well their intensity or forecast errors will come out at the end of this season, they have done good to get everyone through this season the best they could while trying to prevent mass panic and confusion amongst the people and forecasting the storms as well as possible.
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#344 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 20, 2005 12:06 pm

Image

The existence of TD 27 was plagued with the question, does it has a LLC or not? Gamma shows that, she is dying, but she has a LLC!!!!
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#345 Postby Forecaster Colby » Sun Nov 20, 2005 12:15 pm

Haha.
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#346 Postby Sanibel » Sun Nov 20, 2005 12:22 pm

This is a prime example of "model wishcasting". In certain conditions the models will run on pure garbage data and forecast bogus scenarios. This is one of them. The models failed to sense the November climate and processed purely within their 'blind spot'.


I could be possible for Gamma to refire - but only if it goes east and conditions improve...
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#347 Postby Forecaster Colby » Sun Nov 20, 2005 12:30 pm

Actually, it looks pretty good on that visible, just not tropical.
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#348 Postby Forecaster Colby » Sun Nov 20, 2005 12:49 pm

Why is the 12z GFDL initialized at 50kt?
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#349 Postby cjrciadt » Sun Nov 20, 2005 4:24 pm

Image
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#350 Postby mike815 » Sun Nov 20, 2005 4:33 pm

look at5 that llc HA HA its a tru fighter to the end.
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#351 Postby jabber » Sun Nov 20, 2005 4:35 pm

I hate naked swirls
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#352 Postby fuzzyblow » Sun Nov 20, 2005 5:01 pm

Lol,,, Gamma is dying too slowly, we gonna have a Gamma-ghost around... :eek: :sick:
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#353 Postby Windtalker1 » Sun Nov 20, 2005 6:27 pm

With all the moisture starting to file into the Caribbean, can Gamma flare up later tonight? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#354 Postby Rainband » Sun Nov 20, 2005 6:35 pm

WindRunner wrote:-
There is reasoning behind every one of there desicions, and basing forecasts on continuity is to ensure that the models didn't go crazy for one or two runs, or that a strange flux in a particular feature isn't temporary. If they were to immediately change their forecast every time they or the models saw a change in what is most likely going to happen, then the forecasts would be flying all over the place and people would tend to trust the forecasts less and less, as a sudden shift from a landfall in Miami up to SC and then back to Melbourne and then keeping it fish would just look very unintelligent to most people, especially the public and media. While the overall forecasts might be a little slow to change, the NHC will make the calls as they see fit and do it without making sudden changes to a track until it seems that the new track is not some weird run. They do this because they must account for error, and trying to make suddent changes to forecasts will, in the long run, not effect the error at all, or possibly make it worse, as I'm sure you remeber the times this season the NHC has not changed there forecast to comply with strange model runs that have lasted for over a day. The NHC turned out to be right in those cases, and better warning was provided for the locations in the path of the storm. Sure, sometimes it works the other way too, but we can't eliminate all error, and being slow to change from something that makes sense and works seems like a much better strategy than jumping around like a second grader playing hopscotch.
Exactly. Bravo
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#355 Postby Forecaster Colby » Sun Nov 20, 2005 6:57 pm

Windtalker1 wrote:With all the moisture starting to file into the Caribbean, can Gamma flare up later tonight? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


I strongly doubt it. The only reason it's not a remnant low now according to the NHC is that it hasn't been the required 18 hours. It's likely gone, at least till when/if it reaches the central caribbean (again :lol: )
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#356 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 20, 2005 9:39 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2005

...GAMMA DISSIPATING TO THE NORTH OF HONDURAS...

AT 10 PM EST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT
95 MILES... 155 KM...NORTH OF LIMON HONDURAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH... 4
KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GAMMA IS DISSIPATING INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 10 PM EST POSITION...17.2 N... 85.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON GAMMA UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

FORECASTER PASCH



BYE, BYE GAMMA. SEE YOU, I DON'T KNOW WHEN, 2006?!?!?!?!
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#357 Postby fci » Sun Nov 20, 2005 10:04 pm

I think they may retire the name "Gamma".

Why...... because we may never get to the Greek alphabet ever again!

:lol:
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#358 Postby Forecaster Colby » Sun Nov 20, 2005 10:29 pm

R.I.P. Gamma. You shant be missed.
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#359 Postby no advance » Mon Nov 21, 2005 12:27 pm

Hold on there guys. You are dismissing Gamma too fast. It would only make since if it continues SE that there is at least the probability of it regenerating.
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#360 Postby fuzzyblow » Mon Nov 21, 2005 12:34 pm

HUH !! :eek: :sick:
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