TS Delta Advisories

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TS Delta Advisories

#1 Postby x-y-no » Wed Nov 23, 2005 3:23 pm

Yep ... It's here!

--------

000
WTNT23 KNHC 232012
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005
2100Z WED NOV 23 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 40.5W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 165 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 45SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT.......300NE 200SE 250SW 300NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 300SE 350SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 40.5W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 40.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.1N 40.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...225NE 150SE 200SW 225NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.7N 39.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 200SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 25.0N 39.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 175SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.0N 39.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 175SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.0N 39.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 175NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 32.0N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 36.0N 42.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 40.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART
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#2 Postby mike815 » Wed Nov 23, 2005 3:24 pm

THANK U STEWART!!!!!!!!! :D :D
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#3 Postby CronkPSU » Wed Nov 23, 2005 3:25 pm

skipped that whole TD thing huh?
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#4 Postby mike815 » Wed Nov 23, 2005 3:25 pm

Yes it did its a TS thats for sure.
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#5 Postby P.K. » Wed Nov 23, 2005 3:26 pm

WTNT43 KNHC 232019
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED NOV 23 2005

THE 2005 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON REFUSES TO END AS MODERATE
TO DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS AND HAS
WRAPPED ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER
OF THE LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1000
NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS
OCCASIONALLY APPEARED IN VARIOUS SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE
INTENSIFYING CIRCULATION HAS WRAPPED IN DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS BASED ON A 0852Z QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS SHOWING A FEW 50-KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND VECTORS TO THE
NORTH... AND A 986.5 MB PRESSURE REPORT FROM BUOY 62556 LOCATED
ABOUT 50 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER AT 23/16Z. THAT BUOY PRESSURE ALSO
MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH THE 23/02Z PRESSURE OF 984.4 MB FROM BUOY
13534 WHEN IT WAS LOCATED ABOUT 40 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER. THE
50-KT INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A
TROPICAL SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 165/08 KT. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
MODELS ARE IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON DELTA BOTTOMING OUT IN
LATITUDE BY ABOUT 24 HOURS...BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE NORTH. THE
MAN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS WHETHER DELTA TURNS EAST OR
WEST OF 40W LONGITUDE BEFORE IT TURNS BACK TO THE NORTH. I HAVE
OPTED TO TURN THE TRACK COUNTERCLOCKWISE TO THE EAST AND THEN
NORTH... GIVEN THAT DELTA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER AND
VERTICALLY DEEP CYCLONIC GYRE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR IN
SPEED TO... BUT IS RIGHT OF... THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE 850-200 MB VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS DELTA IS FORECAST TO DECREASE
FROM THE CURRENT 50 KT DOWN TO 22 KT IN 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THAT DELTA IS SHALLOWER THAN CLASSICAL TROPICAL CYCLONES... LESS
SHEAR IS SUGGESTED BY UW-CIMSS WATER VAPOR WINDS OF 20-30 KT AT 300
MB...WHICH IS ABOUT 10-20 KT LESS THAN AT 200 MB. ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW HAS ALSO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS...SO SOME
ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS DELTA MOVES
SOUTHWARD OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER SSTS OF 25.5C FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 25.9N 40.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 25.1N 40.2W 55 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 24.7N 39.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 25.0N 39.4W 60 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 26.0N 39.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 26/1800Z 28.0N 39.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 27/1800Z 32.0N 40.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 28/1800Z 36.0N 42.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#6 Postby mike815 » Wed Nov 23, 2005 3:26 pm

It poses no threat to the US but this is now the 25th named storm of our 2005 season!
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#7 Postby mike815 » Wed Nov 23, 2005 3:27 pm

THE 2005 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON REFUSES TO END Stewart asys it right. the season refuses to die.
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#8 Postby x-y-no » Wed Nov 23, 2005 3:29 pm

TROPICAL STORM DELTA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED NOV 23 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.5 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SAT NOV 26 2005

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

24.7N 39.7W 48 X X X 48 26.0N 39.5W 99 X X X 99
25.0N 39.4W 31 1 X X 32

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI
C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI
D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART
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#9 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Nov 23, 2005 4:26 pm

Someone is slipping..I see no Graphic...
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Weatherfreak000

hah

#10 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Wed Nov 23, 2005 4:29 pm

Stewart sure sounds pissed off at Delta XD.





FINALLYYYY
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#11 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 23, 2005 9:34 pm

231
WTNT33 KNHC 240232
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST WED NOV 23 2005

...DELTA...FAR OUT IN THE ATLANTIC...THREAT TO SHIPPING...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 40.3 WEST OR ABOUT
1175 MILES...1890 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

DELTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES
...415 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...25.3 N... 40.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$




628
WTNT23 KNHC 240231
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005
0300Z THU NOV 24 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 40.3W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 160 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......125NE 150SE 200SW 225NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 300SE 350SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 40.3W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 40.4W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 24.4N 39.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 150SE 200SW 225NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 24.2N 39.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 200SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.0N 39.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 200SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.0N 39.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 175SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.5N 40.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 175SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 31.0N 40.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 35.0N 41.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 40.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

FORECASTER PASCH
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#12 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 23, 2005 9:36 pm

TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST WED NOV 23 2005

SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES...FROM TRMM...SSMI...AND SSMI/S...INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SOME EASTWARD TILT WITH HEIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. DVORAK ESTIMATES AND QUIKSCAT DATA SUPPORT A CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 50 KT. DELTA IS STILL IN A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...AND THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT DOES NOT DECREASE THE
SHEAR AS MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WAS SHOWN IN THE
PREVIOUS RUN. NONETHELESS...SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER WARMER
WATERS AND AT LEAST SOME RELAXATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IS
LIKELY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING AS IN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...DELTA
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER COOLER WATERS AND IT SHOULD
BE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...
SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF...SHOW A NEW CYCLONE FORMING TO THE WEST
OF DELTA AND BECOMING THE DOMINANT SYSTEM IN 3-5 DAYS.

THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. DELTA IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND
IT IS APPARENTLY BEING STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD BY THE FLOW ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS LARGER GYRE. DELTA SHOULD STOP MOVING
SOUTHWARD SOON...AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GYRE.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK INDICATED BY THE
GFDL AND GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE FORMER MODEL SHOWING DELTA
TURNING AROUND AND MOVING QUITE A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN SHOWN BY
THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE GFDL AND THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SHOWN IN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 2114 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS
WHICH INDICATED SOME CONTRACTION OF THE WIND FIELD...WHICH IS MORE
TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0300Z 25.3N 40.3W 50 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 24.4N 39.9W 55 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 24.2N 39.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 25.0N 39.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 26.0N 39.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 28.5N 40.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 28/0000Z 31.0N 40.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 29/0000Z 35.0N 41.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

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#13 Postby quandary » Wed Nov 23, 2005 9:39 pm

This new cyclone is supposed to be extratropical right? Or will the endless 2005 season continue to amaze?
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#14 Postby P.K. » Thu Nov 24, 2005 3:35 am

WTNT23 KNHC 240831
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005
0900Z THU NOV 24 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 39.8W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 155 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......125NE 150SE 200SW 225NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 300SE 350SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 39.8W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 40.0W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.2N 39.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 150SE 200SW 225NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 23.9N 39.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 200SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 24.2N 39.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 200SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.9N 39.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 175SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 27.0N 39.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 175SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 31.0N 40.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 34.0N 41.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 39.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

FORECASTER BEVEN

-----------------------------------------------------

WTNT43 KNHC 240839
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST THU NOV 24 2005

INFRARED IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT DELTA IS A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH SOMEWHAT INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND
SOME ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. WHILE THE
CONVECTIVE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS FAIRLY SMALL...DELTA
HAS A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE PROVIDED BY ITS DEVELOPMENT AS A
NON-TROPICAL LOW. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT A TRMM OVERPASS AT 0403Z SUGGESTS THE CENTER IS
NORTHEAST OF THE POSTIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND IF LATER
INFORMATION CONFIRMS THIS THE POSITION AND MOTION MAY NEED SOME
ADJUSTMENT ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 155/7. DELTA IS
CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH
AND EAST...AND A HIGH-AMPLITUDE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE WEST.
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE
NEXT 48 HR AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER FLORIDA MOVES
EASTWARD. BY 72 HR...THIS TROUGH WILL BE AMPLIFYING JUST WEST OF
DELTA...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS EITHER FORMING ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE STORM OR SPLITTING THE STORM IN TWO AS A
RESULT. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD ALLOW DELTA TO CONTINUE MORE
SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. BY 72 HR...THE FALLING
PRESSURES WEST OF THE STORM SHOULD MOVE IT ALONG FASTER TOWARD THE
NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR DELTA
TO CONTINUE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR 24 HR...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS
MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT
SLOWER THAN...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFDL.

ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE ABOUT 30
KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR OVER DELTA. HOWEVER...THE STORM DOES NOT
APPEAR QUITE THAT BADLY SHEARED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A STRONG NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAM TO PERSIST NEAR OR JUST WEST OF DELTA THROUGH 48 HR...AND
HOW MUCH THE STORM STRENGTHENS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR AWAY IT CAN
STAY FROM THAT SHEAR. BETWEEN 48-72 HR...THERE IS A CHANCE THE
SHEAR COULD DECREASE FOR A SHORT TIME AS THE NEW SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFIES WEST OF DELTA...BUT BY THAT TIME THE STORM WILL LIKELY BE
MOVING INTO COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT DELTA WILL AVOID THE WORST OF THE
SHEAR THROUGH 72 HR...WITH SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24
HR FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 48 HR. AFTER 72 HR...
INCREASING SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEW
LOW WEST OF DELTA COULD CAUSE THE STORM TO START EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AS SHOWN IN THE FORECAST.

THE 12 FT SEAS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED
ON SHIP REPORTS.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0900Z 24.7N 39.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 24.2N 39.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 23.9N 39.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 25/1800Z 24.2N 39.3W 60 KT
48HR VT 26/0600Z 24.9N 39.4W 55 KT
72HR VT 27/0600Z 27.0N 39.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 28/0600Z 31.0N 40.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 29/0600Z 34.0N 41.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#15 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 24, 2005 9:34 am

569
WTNT23 KNHC 241432
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005
1500Z THU NOV 24 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 38.8W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 180SE 200SW 225NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 300SE 350SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 38.8W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 38.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 24.8N 38.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 200SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.3N 38.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 200SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 25.9N 38.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.6N 38.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 29.0N 39.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 170SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 32.0N 40.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 34.0N 41.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 38.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

FORECASTER STEWART


Now forecast to become a hurricane.
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#16 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 24, 2005 9:37 am

570
WTNT43 KNHC 241432
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST THU NOV 24 2005

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE DELTA HAS
CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN. AN EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND A 24/0826Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS
INDICATED SEVERAL 60-KT WIND VECTORS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
CENTER. THESE WINDS WERE IN AREAS OF NO OR WEAK RAIN REGIONS... SO
THEY ARE CONSIDERED TO BE VALID... ESPECIALLY SINCE THOSE VECTORS
AND THE ENTIRE EYE WERE SURROUNDED BY A LARGER AREA 50-55 KT WIND
VECTORS. DELTA IS CLOSE TO BECOMING A HURRICANE... AND THE ONLY
REASON THE INTENSITY WAS HELD DOWN WAS DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY
CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING AROUND THE EYE FEATURE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 090/02 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RECENT SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT DELTA MAY HAVE
BOTTOMED OUT AT THE BASE OF THE LARGE TROUGH/CYCLONIC GYRE IN WHICH
THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED. THE MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TAKE DELTA SLOWLY SOUTHWEST AND THEN WESTWARD BEFORE
TURNING IT BACK TO THE NORTH... DESPITE THE BROAD COUNTER-CLOCKWISE
MOTION THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED FOR THE PAST 48 HOURS. WHILE IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT DELTA COULD MAKE SOME SMALL LOOPS OR WOBBLES TO
THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE
MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK
TO THE NORTH BY 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION... BUT THEN COMES BACK ON TRACK
BY 72-120 HOURS. A NORTHWESTWARD TURN BY 120H IS EXPECTED DUE TO
SOME BINARY INTERACTION WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF DELTA.

DELTA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ALONG
38-39N LATITUDE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO
DECREASE AND FOR ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW TO DEVELOP. THE 300 MB WINDS
ARE DEPICTED BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS AS BEING AT LEAST 20 KT LESS
THAN THEY ARE 200 MB... SO THE SHIPS MODEL VERTICAL SHEAR ANALYSIS
OF 42 KT APPEARS TO BE TOO STRONG. THE MODELS MAINTAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK 300 MB WINDS OVER DELTA FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS... SO THERE
IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS
BEFORE STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR KICKS IN BY 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/1500Z 24.8N 38.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 24.8N 38.6W 65 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 25.3N 38.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 26/0000Z 25.9N 38.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 26/1200Z 26.6N 38.7W 55 KT
72HR VT 27/1200Z 29.0N 39.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 28/1200Z 32.0N 40.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 29/1200Z 34.0N 41.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

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#17 Postby cjrciadt » Thu Nov 24, 2005 3:56 pm

000
WTNT33 KNHC 242046
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU NOV 24 2005

...DELTA REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...NO THREAT TO ANY IMMEDIATE LAND AREAS...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 38.9 WEST OR ABOUT 1160
MILES...1865 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

DELTA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY...OR DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD
THE SOUTH. STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK... SO SOME
ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... A SLOW MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS... AND DELTA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES
...370 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...24.6 N... 38.9 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
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#18 Postby cjrciadt » Thu Nov 24, 2005 3:57 pm

000
WTNT43 KNHC 242039
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST THU NOV 24 2005

THE EYE FEATURE MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAS BECOME RAGGED
AND LESS DISTINCT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT DELTA MAY HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH BETWEEN
14-16Z WHEN THE EYE WAS BEST DEFINED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB/SAB AND A 1638Z UW-CIMSS INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 978 MB AND 72 KT. WHILE THE AMSU WIND ESTIMATE IS
PROBABLY TOO HIGH FOR A HYBRID-TYPE TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKE DELTA...
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS ESSENTIALLY REMAINED UNCHANGED SINCE
0519Z... SUGGESTING THAT DELTA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED MUCH... IF
ANY... SINCE THEN. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 2048Z MAY PROVIDE SOME
QUANTITATIVE WIND INFORMATION TO HELP SETTLE THIS QUESTION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY...ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE MAY
BE DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AT LESS AT 1 KT. THERE REMAINS
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.
ALL OF THE NHC MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET MODEL... NOW DRIFT
DELTA SLOWLY SOUTH OR EASTWARD... BEFORE TURING THE CYCLONE
NORTHWARD IN 36-72 HOURS. AFTER THAT... ALL OF THE MODELS EXCEPT
NOGAPS AND THE GFDN TAKE DELTA NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH 72 HOURS. NOGAPS SHOWS SOME BINARY INTERACTION OCCURRING
WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST
OF DELTA BY 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REFLECTS THIS
INTERACTION BY A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN 96-120 HOURS.

DELTA HAS REMAINED BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WHERE THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS THE LEAST. HOWEVER... CIRRUS CLOUD MOTIONS
SUGGEST THAT A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW MAY HAVE SLID OVER THE TOP OF
DELTA... WHICH HAS HELPED TO SUPPRESS THE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WHILE THE EYE FEATURE IS LESS DISTINCT THAN EARLIER... CONVECTION
HAS ACTUALLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY AROUND THE CENTER... SO THERE IS
STILL SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR DELTA TO BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN BEFORE
SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY SHEAR INDUCES SLOW WEAKENING BY 36-48 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 24.6N 38.9W 60 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 25.0N 38.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 25.5N 38.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 26.2N 38.9W 60 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 27.1N 39.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 27/1800Z 29.5N 39.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 28/1800Z 32.0N 40.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 29/1800Z 34.0N 41.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
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#19 Postby rainstorm » Thu Nov 24, 2005 6:13 pm

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#20 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 24, 2005 9:47 pm

530
WTNT33 KNHC 250246
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST THU NOV 24 2005

...DELTA MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 39.0 WEST OR ABOUT
1215 MILES...1955 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

DELTA IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR.
STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE... AND LITTLE OVERALL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH... 110 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES... 295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...23.7 N... 39.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB


$$




529
WTNT23 KNHC 250246
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005
0300Z FRI NOV 25 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 39.0W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 185 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 39.0W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 38.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 23.4N 39.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.7N 39.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 24.5N 38.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.1N 38.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 29.0N 38.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 31.5N 37.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 34.0N 34.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 39.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB
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