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#21 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 24, 2005 10:04 pm

WTNT43 KNHC 250300
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST THU NOV 24 2005

DELTA HAS A BAND OF FAIRLY DEEP CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN
-60C IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT... BUT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION
OF THE INNER CORE DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE CHANGED APPRECIABLY
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 55
KT... WHILE CIRA AND CIMSS ESTIMATES BASED ON AN AMSU OVERPASS AT
2023Z WERE 60 AND 73 KT RESPECTIVELY. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT ABOUT
21Z PROVIDED SEEMINGLY UNCONTAMINATED WIND SPEED ESTIMATES OF 55 KT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION... AND THE WINDS ARE LIKELY A
LITTLE STRONGER BENEATH THE CONVECTION. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 60 KT USING A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE
QUIKSCAT DATA ALSO REVEAL THAT THE WIND FIELD IS NOT QUITE AS LARGE
AS IT WAS PREVIOUSLY... SO THE INITIAL AND FORECAST 34 KT RADII
HAVE BEEN DECREASED SOMEWHAT.

DELTA HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
AT ABOUT 5 KT... APPARENTLY INFLUENCED BY THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO
ITS WEST. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS... INCLUDING THE GFS AND NOGAPS
THAT HAVE INITIALIZED THE POSITION AND MOTION REASONABLY WELL...
FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AND CORRESPONDINGLY FOR
DELTA TO EXPERIENCE LITTLE NET MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WITH A NEW MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO REPLACE THE RIDGE
WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS... DELTA SHOULD THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AS ANTICIPATED BY ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.
THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...
WHICH IS AN EASTWARD SHIFT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A
POTENTIAL COMPLICATING FACTOR... HOWEVER... IS A SEPARATE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF DELTA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEW MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT DELTA WILL REMAIN SEPARATED FAR ENOUGH EAST
FROM THAT SYSTEM AND NOT BE DRAWN WESTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD... BUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE TWO SYSTEMS IN THE MODELS IS
QUITE COMPLEX AND COULD CHANGE.

EVEN THOUGH THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
DO NOT ANTICIPATE DELTA BECOMING A HURRICANE... IT COULD STILL DO
SO FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE REMAINING
SO CLOSE TO THAT INTENSITY. WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND. THEREAFTER DELTA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND EVENTUALLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0300Z 23.7N 39.0W 60 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 23.4N 39.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 23.7N 39.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 24.5N 38.8W 60 KT
48HR VT 27/0000Z 26.1N 38.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 28/0000Z 29.0N 38.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 29/0000Z 31.5N 37.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 30/0000Z 34.0N 34.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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#22 Postby P.K. » Fri Nov 25, 2005 3:55 am

WTNT43 KNHC 250830
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST FRI NOV 25 2005

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT DELTA HAS BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HR...WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION
CURRENTLY CONFINED TO RAGGED BANDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND NON-EXISTENT
ELSEWHERE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS REDUCED TO 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 220/3...BASED ON A 6 HR MOTION. AT THIS
TIME...DELTA IS IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS EAST OF A WEAKENING
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
ERRATIC MOTION...AND LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY.
AFTER 24 HR...FALLING PRESSURES WEST OF DELTA ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE
THE STORM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHWARD. THE VARIOUS TRACK
GUIDANCE MODELS AGREE ON THIS THROUGH 48 HR...THEN ARE EVEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN TURNING DELTA EASTWARD IN WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A
DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER WESTERN EUROPE THAN THEY WERE 6 HR AGO.
WHILE THE MODELS AGREE WELL ON THE EASTWARD MOTION...THIS WAS NOT
THE CASE 12 HR AGO...AND IT WILL TAKE A RUN OR TWO MORE SHOWING
THIS MOTION BEFORE THE FORECAST TRACK CAN FULLY FOLLOW IT. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 24 HR...
AND SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED TO A MORE EASTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR.
HOWEVER...THE TRACK IS ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND IS SLOWER THAN ALL THE MODELS SAVE THE UKMET. IF
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE FORECASTING A FASTER EASTWARD
MOTION...AND IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT DELTA WILL NOT BE ABSORBED
INTO THE NEW LOW TO THE WEST...ADDITIONAL REVISIONS TO THE TRACK
FORECAST MAY BE NECESSARY IN LATER ADVISORIES.

THE TREND OF DECREASING ORGANIZATION REDUCES THE CHANCE THAT DELTA
WILL BECOME A HURRICANE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE SHIPS
MODEL FORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR TO INCREASE AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR THE STORM WEAKENS AND MOVES
EASTWARD...AND THIS MAY ALREADY BE UNDERWAY. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS THUS CHANGED TO SLOW WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HR AS
DELTA MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...FOLLOWED BY EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AS THE STORM TURNS EASTWARD SOUTH OF THE EUROPEAN
TROUGH. IF THE SHEAR INCREASES AS MUCH AS THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING...DELTA COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0900Z 23.7N 39.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 23.6N 39.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 24.0N 39.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 26/1800Z 25.0N 38.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 27/0600Z 26.8N 37.1W 50 KT
72HR VT 28/0600Z 31.0N 34.0W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 29/0600Z 32.0N 28.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 30/0600Z 32.0N 21.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#23 Postby P.K. » Fri Nov 25, 2005 9:51 am

WTNT43 KNHC 251418
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST FRI NOV 25 2005

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASE THE PAST 6 HOURS...
WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. DELTA HAS MOVED WEST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND
IS NOW UNDERNEATH 30-40 KT NORTHERLY WINDS... WITH 50-70 KT WINDS
LOCATED 60 NMI TO THE WEST AS INDICATED IN A 25/1200Z UW-CIMSS
WATER VAPOR WIND ANALYSIS. THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 55
KT BASED ON A 25/0800Z HI-RES QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THAT STILL SHOWED A
FEW 55-KT WIND VECTORS NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 210/4...BASED ON A 12-HR AVERAGE. MOST OF THE
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DELTA SHOULD SLOW ITS SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT OF MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS... AND THEN TURN BACK
TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST. WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION OF THE
CLIPER AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS... THE REMAINDER OF THE NHC GUIDANCE
MODELS TAKE DELTA NORTHEAST AND THEN RAPIDLY EASTWARD AFTER 72
HOURS TO NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS OR MOROCCO. HOWEVER... THERE IS A
BIG QUESTION AS TO JUST HOW VERTICALLY DEEP DELTA WILL BE IN THE
LATER PERIODS. THE SHIPS MODEL AND OTHER MODELS INDICATE THAT
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 40-50 KT FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY THE WEST. THOSE HOSTILE SHEAR CONDITIONS
...COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY AIR LOCATED JUST WEST OF
THE CYCLONE...MAY RESULT IN A DECOUPLING OF THE LOW- AND MID/UPPER-
LEVEL CIRCULATIONS... WITH THE LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
REMAINING BEHIND TO INTERACT WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAT IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF DELTA IN 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND
IS A BLEND OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER BAMS MODEL.

ALTHOUGH DELTA CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER
WATER... THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND
VERY DRY AIR SHOULD INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT AND PERSISTENCE OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER... RESULTING IN A
GRADUAL SPINDOWN OF THE WIND FIELD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL... WHICH EVEN DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE BY 96 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 23.2N 39.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 23.3N 39.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 24.0N 38.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 25.5N 38.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 27.1N 36.9W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 28/1200Z 30.5N 34.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 29/1200Z 31.0N 29.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 30/1200Z 30.0N 24.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#24 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 25, 2005 3:30 pm

WTNT33 KNHC 252027
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI NOV 25 2005

...DELTA SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 40.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1290
MILES...2075 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

DELTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR... BUT
LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. STEERING CURRENTS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... SO SOME ERRATIC
MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AND DELTA COULD BECOME STATIONARY AT TIMES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
...240 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...23.0 N... 40.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$



217
WTNT23 KNHC 252026
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005
2100Z FRI NOV 25 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 40.0W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 130SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 40.0W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 39.9W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 23.4N 39.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 24.3N 38.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 25.5N 38.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 27.3N 36.8W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 30.4N 34.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 30.5N 29.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 30.0N 25.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 40.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART




WTNT43 KNHC 252026
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2005

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MADE A SLIGHT COMEBACK WITH SOME DEEP
CONVECTION WITH TOPS TO -70C HAVING DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS DECREASED
AND BECOME MORE RAGGED LOOKING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
DECREASED TO 50 KT BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND AN INCREASING AMSU PRESSURE
ESTIMATE OF 983 MB FROM BOTH UW-CIMSS AND NESDIS-CIRA AT 25/1629Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 230/03 KT...ALTHOUGH THE 6-HR MOTION HAS BEEN
230/05. THE VARIOUS GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST
THAT DELTA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION...
DESPITE THE SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION REMAINS THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL AND NOW THE UKMET MODEL...
WHICH TAKE DELTA SLOWLY CLOCKWISE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH 72
HOURS... AND THEN TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWEST AND WESTWARD AFTER
THAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
AND THE BAMS MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS... AND REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE
NHC MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO DELTA EXPECTED TO BECOME A MORE
VERTICALLY SHALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSSIBLY INTERACT WITH AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP A FEW HUNDRED MILES
TO THE WEST BY 72 HOURS. AS A RESULT... THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE 96- AND 120-HR FORECAST POSITIONS.

DELTA HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER 78-79F SST WATER...
WHICH HAS LIKELY HELPED RE-INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. HOWEVER... STRONG NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND VERY
DRY MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
FROM PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER. THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE DELTA BY 96 HOURS... AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
REFLECTS SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND UNDERNEATH INCREASING NORTHWEST TO
WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KT BY 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 23.0N 40.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 23.4N 39.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 24.3N 38.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 25.5N 38.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 27.3N 36.8W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 28/1800Z 30.4N 34.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 29/1800Z 30.5N 29.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 30/1800Z 30.0N 25.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
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#25 Postby P.K. » Fri Nov 25, 2005 7:01 pm

cycloneye wrote:THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MADE A SLIGHT COMEBACK WITH SOME DEEP
CONVECTION WITH TOPS TO -70C HAVING DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT.

DELTA HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER 78-79F SST WATER...
WHICH HAS LIKELY HELPED RE-INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER.


Inconsistent use of units there....... :lol:
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#26 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 25, 2005 9:50 pm

508
WTNT33 KNHC 260245
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST FRI NOV 25 2005

...DELTA MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND WEAKEN...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 39.8 WEST OR ABOUT
1350 MILES...2170 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

DELTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR. A
GENERALLY SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY... BUT
A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SOMETIME LATER ON
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES... 230 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...21.9 N... 39.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB


$$



934
WTNT23 KNHC 260244
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005
0300Z SAT NOV 26 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 39.8W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT.......100NE 125SE 125SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 39.8W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 39.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 22.7N 39.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 125SE 125SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 23.8N 38.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 125SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.7N 36.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 125SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.2N 33.3W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 29.5N 32.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 39.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB
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#27 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 25, 2005 10:17 pm

TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2005

WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO RESULT IN THE CONVECTION BEING RELEGATED TO
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ALMOST COMPLETELY
EXPOSED... BUT THE CONVECTION JUST TO ITS EAST IS STILL FAIRLY
DEEP. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 2020Z REVEALED 45 KT WINDS JUST
OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION... AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SINCE
THEN. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BASED ON A SHEAR PATTERN ARE
STILL T3.0/45 KT... AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 50
KT. HOWEVER... A STEADY WEAKENING TREND APPEARS IMMINENT... AS
WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER DELTA DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND DEEPEN.
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CLOSELY IN
ANTICIPATING DELTA TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR ONLY ABOUT 36
MORE HOURS.

DELTA HAS BEEN MOVING DUE SOUTHWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN FORECASTING
THIS MOTION TO CEASE SHORTLY AND FOR A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION TO
BEGIN SOMETIME WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MODELS ALSO FORECAST
A NEW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FORM WEST OF DELTA IN 36-48
HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. SINCE DELTA WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN QUITE A BIT DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... IT IS NOT LIKELY TO MOVE AS QUICKLY
EASTWARD AS MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING... AND IT COULD EVEN
BE DRAWN WESTWARD INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE NEW LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER... THE MODELS THAT DEPICT AN
APPROPRIATELY WEAK DELTA ALSO SUGGEST THERE IS ALSO A GOOD CHANCE
ITS CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL NOT SURVIVE BEYOND ABOUT 72 HOURS AS
BECOMES ENTANGLED IN A FRONTAL ZONE. THIS IS THE SOLUTION SHOWN IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0300Z 21.9N 39.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 22.7N 39.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 23.8N 38.1W 35 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 25.7N 36.1W 35 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 28.2N 33.3W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 29/0000Z 29.5N 32.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 30/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
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#28 Postby P.K. » Sat Nov 26, 2005 3:53 am

WTNT43 KNHC 260831
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2005

ANALYSES FROM CIMMS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOW 40 KT...AND AS A RESULT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
IS NOW MOSTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A BIT
GENEROUS. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO SHOULD
PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON THE ACTUAL INTENSITY OF DELTA.

DELTA HAS STOPPED ITS SOUTHWARD MOTION AND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
SEEMS TO BE MOVING DUE EAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS THUS A SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN 090/5. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG MID/UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 59W FROM 20N-32N...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW NEAR 31N37W. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LARGE AND POWERFUL
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER WESTERN EUROPE AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
NORTH OF 30N EAST OF 20W. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE WEST OF DELTA
MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFIES...CREATING A NEW SURFACE LOW
WEST OF THE STORM. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE DELTA TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR WITH SOME ACCELERATION...
THEN GRADUALLY TURN MORE EASTWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE EUROPEAN TROUGH. MOST LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING DELTA NEAR NORTHEASTERN AFRICA IN ABOUT 72
HR. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THE NEW SURFACE
LOW COULD TRY TO ABSORB DELTA...WHICH WOULD KEEP IT FROM MOVING
EASTWARD AS QUICKLY AS THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THEREFORE...
WHILE THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A FASTER EASTWARD MOTION
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IT WILL BE SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST INCREASING SHEAR OVER DELTA DURING
THE NEXT 72 HR...AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK. THUS...THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE. DELTA SHOULD ENCOUNTER THE FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EUROPEAN TROUGH IN ABOUT 48 HR AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...THEN
LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN 72-96 HR. EVEN IF DELTA IS SLOWER TO MOVE
EASTWARD INTO COLD AIR AND COLD WATER THAN FORECAST...THE STRONG
SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE STORM.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0900Z 21.9N 39.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 22.5N 38.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 24.4N 36.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 26.7N 33.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 28/0600Z 28.3N 30.2W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 29/0600Z 29.0N 26.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 30/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
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#29 Postby WindRunner » Sat Nov 26, 2005 10:03 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SAT NOV 26 2005

..DELTA MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A
DAY OR TWO...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.1 WEST OR ABOUT
1265 MILES...2035 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

DELTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH... 65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND DELTA SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN
A DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...22.4 N... 38.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA


TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005
1500Z SAT NOV 26 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 38.1W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 125SE 125SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 38.1W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 38.4W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 23.1N 37.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.5N 34.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 27.5N 31.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 29.0N 27.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.0N 15.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 38.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA
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#30 Postby WindRunner » Sat Nov 26, 2005 10:03 am

TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2005

DELTA CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED AND WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH A CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES. BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARD COOLER WATERS AND WITHIN AN EVEN STRONGER WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. DELTA SHOULD
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A DAY OR SO.

DELTA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FOR A DAY OR SO WITHIN
THE FLOW AROUND A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG 50 DEGREES
WEST. THEREAFTER...A TURN TO THE EAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS DELTA BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN EUROPE.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STEERING PATTERN IS INDICATED BY ALL OF THE
AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS AND THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS REASONS TO ASSUME
ANOTHER SOLUTION.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 22.4N 38.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 23.1N 37.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 25.5N 34.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 27.5N 31.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 28/1200Z 29.0N 27.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 29/1200Z 29.0N 15.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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#31 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 26, 2005 3:38 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT NOV 26 2005

...DELTA MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1170
MILES...1885 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

DELTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR... AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DELTA IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES ...230 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...23.2 N... 36.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$




577
WTNT23 KNHC 262033
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005
2100Z SAT NOV 26 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 36.7W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 125SE 100SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 36.7W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 37.3W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 24.5N 35.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 27.0N 31.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 28.5N 26.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.5N 20.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 36.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA


001
WTNT43 KNHC 262034
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2005

DELTA CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE DEEP
CONVECTION CONFINED TO A CLUSTER LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
HOWEVER... THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED AND THE CENTER HAS
BECOME LESS DEFINED. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD COOLER WATERS AND WITHIN AN EVEN
STRONGER WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
IS ANTICIPATED AND DELTA SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A
DAY OR SO AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

DELTA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 050 DEGREES
AT 14 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST FOR A DAY OR SO WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND A DEVELOPING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG 50 DEGREES WEST. THEN...A TURN TO THE
EAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS DELTA
BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN EUROPE. THIS IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/2100Z 23.2N 36.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 24.5N 35.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 27.0N 31.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 28.5N 26.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 28/1800Z 28.5N 20.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 29/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

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#32 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:48 pm


TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005
0300Z SUN NOV 27 2005

...CORRECTED TO DESIGNATE EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOUR FORECAST...

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 34.6W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 90SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 34.6W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 35.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.8N 32.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 27.8N 27.7W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.5N 22.4W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 28.5N 15.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL SYSTEM

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 34.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB
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#33 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:56 pm

229
WTNT43 KNHC 270249
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2005

SOME DEEP CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -70C HAS BEEN PERSISTING
THIS EVENING DOWNSHEAR OR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE MOSTLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE CONVECTION REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE CENTER FOR DVORAK T-NUMBERS TO REMAIN 2.5 CORRESPONDING TO 35
KT. WHILE THE QUIKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 20Z MISSED MOST OF THE
CIRCULATION... IT DID REVEAL 30 KT WINDS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT... AND SINCE THE
STRENGTH OF THE WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS... DELTA COULD REMAIN A
TROPICAL STORM WELL INTO SUNDAY. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECASTS A
STORM OUT TO 24 HOURS... BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES THE
SHEAR TO TAKE SOME OF ITS TOLL SOONER THAN THAT. DELTA SHOULD BE
EXTRATROPICAL OVER COOLER WATERS IN 24 HOURS OR SO AND EVENTUALLY
BECOME STRETCHED OUT AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN A FRONTAL ZONE.

DELTA IS GRADUALLY ACCELERATING AND IS NOW MOVING GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 18 KT... PERHAPS EVEN FASTER OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. A CONTINUED ACCELERATION ALONG THIS SAME HEADING
IS EXPECTED FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE
MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THEREAFTER... A
TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS FORECAST AS DELTA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
WESTERN EUROPE. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
THIS PATH BUT DISAGREE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE FORWARD SPEED. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER AND TO THE EAST OF MOST OF THE
MODELS... CONSIDERING THE ALREADY QUITE RAPID INITIAL MOTION.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0300Z 24.2N 34.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 25.8N 32.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 27.8N 27.7W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 28/1200Z 28.5N 22.4W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 29/0000Z 28.5N 15.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 30/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE

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#34 Postby P.K. » Sun Nov 27, 2005 4:36 am

WTNT43 KNHC 270837
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2005

DELTA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -70C
OR COLDER. IN FACT...THE CONVECTION IS ABOUT AS STRONG AS IT HAS
BEEN DURING THE LIFETIME OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
SUGGEST THAT THE STORM MIGHT BE AS STRONGER THAN 35 KT.
DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FOR SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER WITH RESPECT TO THE DENSE
OVERCAST...AND THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES...THE WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 35 KT. WESTERLY SHEAR...
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE WEST OF
DELTA...IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...AND THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING
OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IN VIEW OF THE
CURRENT VIGOR OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER...ONLY SLOW
WEAKENING IS FORECAST. OUTPUT FROM THE NCEP GLOBAL FORECAST
SYSTEM...GFS...SHOWS DELTA INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE...AND
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

THE STORM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND IS NOW MOVING
GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 21 KT. A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS LIKELY AS DELTA OR ITS
EXTRATROPICAL COUNTERPART COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
WESTERN EUROPE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND SLIGHTLY FASTER...BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE GFS.

ALTHOUGH DELTA IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 24
HOURS...WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE COULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS IN 24-36 HOURS.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0900Z 25.6N 32.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 27.4N 29.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 28.8N 24.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 28/1800Z 28.8N 17.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 29/0600Z 28.8N 11.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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#35 Postby P.K. » Sun Nov 27, 2005 10:35 am

WTNT43 KNHC 271430
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2005

DELTA HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED
IMAGERY...WITH CONVECTIVE TOPS COLDER THAN -70C. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT SHEARED...AND THE LOW-CLOUD LINES
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
MID-LEVEL EYE. AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS AT 1042Z ALSO HINTS THAT
DELTA IS NOT QUITE AS WELL-ORGANIZED AS IT APPEARS. THIS MORNING'S
QUIKSCAT PASS MISSED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 TO
55 KT...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO MATCH THE LOWER
END OF THIS RANGE. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE WOULD BE INCREASED THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD A BETTER CO-LOCATION OF THE SURFACE CENTER WITH
THE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE BECOME ESTABLISHED. REGARDLESS...WESTERLY
SHEAR OVER DELTA IS FORECAST TO INCREASE... AND THE CYCLONE WILL BE
MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE EARLIER WEAKENING TREND SHOULD RESUME BY
TOMORROW AT THE LATEST. OUTPUT FROM THE NCEP/GFS SHOWS DELTA
INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN 24
HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/23...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO
DIFFICULTY PLACING THE CENTER. DELTA IS MOVING CYCLONICALLY AROUND
A MID-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST...BUT WILL SOON BE FORCED EASTWARD BY
THE FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A LARGER TROUGH OVER WESTERN
EUROPE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. A SOMEWHAT SLOWER TRACK
WOULD BE POSSIBLE SHOULD THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHEAR OFF FROM
THE FLOW ALOFT.

ALTHOUGH DELTA IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 24
HOURS...WINDS AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE COULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS IN 24-36 HOURS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 27.7N 30.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 29.0N 27.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 29.5N 21.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 29/0000Z 29.5N 15.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 29/1200Z 29.0N 10.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 30/1200Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE
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#36 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 27, 2005 3:33 pm

453
WTNT43 KNHC 272032
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2005

ALTHOUGH VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT DELTA
HAS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH ITS CENTER A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE EYE FEATURE OBSERVED THIS MORNING...SHIP VQIB9
REPORTED 60 KT WINDS ABOUT 50 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER AT 18Z. THE
SHIP...WHICH HAS A HISTORY OF GOOD OBSERVATIONS...ALSO REPORTED A
PRESSURE OF 991 MB AND 25 FT SEAS. ON THE BASIS OF THIS
REPORT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. THE SATELLITE DEPICTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO
DETERIORATE...HOWEVER...AND NO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
CONSIDERED LIKELY. BY TOMORROW...DELTA WILL BE OVER 22C WATER WITH
INCREASING SHEAR. OUTPUT FROM THE NCEP/GFS SHOWS DELTA
INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 24
HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. REGARDLESS OF ITS
STATUS...DELTA IS EXPECTED TO BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE CANARY
ISLANDS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND GALES COULD REACH THE COAST OF
MOROCCO IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/23. DELTA IS ABOUT TO COME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A LARGER LOW OVER WESTERN EUROPE.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TURN TO THE EAST AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 29.0N 28.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 29.8N 24.7W 50 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 30.0N 19.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 29/0600Z 29.7N 14.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 29/1800Z 29.3N 9.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 30/1800Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE
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#37 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 27, 2005 9:43 pm

TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005
0300Z MON NOV 28 2005

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CANARY ISLANDS ON MONDAY...AND
COULD REACH THE THE COAST OF MOROCCO BY LATE MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 26.1W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 300SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 26.1W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 27.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 30.0N 22.3W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 30.0N 16.4W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.5N 10.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.0N 5.4W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 26.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB
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#38 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 27, 2005 9:54 pm

664
WTNT43 KNHC 280251
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2005

THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED... BUT SOME DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING THIS EVENING NOT FAR TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTER. DELTA STILL MOSTLY HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED
TROPICAL STORM... ALTHOUGH IT IS STARTING TO TAKE ON SOME
NON-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE STABLE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS STARTING TO WRAP AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
THE CIRCULATION... AND DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO PUNCH IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE-BASED
ESTIMATES AND ON CONTINUITY... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO
55 KT. DELTA WILL BE OVER 22C WATERS TOMORROW AND EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.
HOWEVER... DELTA WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE CANARY ISLANDS IN ABOUT
18 HOURS AND TO THE COAST OF MOROCCO IN ABOUT 30 HOURS.

DELTA IS GRADUALLY TURNING MORE EASTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW 070/23. THE TRACK FORECAST IS RELATIVELY
STRAIGHTFORWARD... AS DELTA IS GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLY
CURRENT TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC AND WESTERN EUROPE. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PATH OF DELTA... TOWARD MOROCCO...
BUT WITH DISAGREEMENTS ON SPEED WHICH ARE OFTEN THE CASE WITH
RAPIDLY MOVING SYSTEMS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE CLOSER TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. MOST OF THE MODELS HANG ON TO DELTA AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS OVER NORTHWESTERN
AFRICA. THEREAFTER... THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED WITHIN
A FRONTAL ZONE.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 29.3N 26.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 30.0N 22.3W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 29/0000Z 30.0N 16.4W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 29/1200Z 29.5N 10.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 30/0000Z 29.0N 5.4W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 01/0000Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE

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#39 Postby P.K. » Mon Nov 28, 2005 4:21 am

WTNT43 KNHC 280846
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST MON NOV 28 2005

DELTA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE ZONALLY ELONGATED AND...
ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE PERSISTING TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IS BEGINNING TO
ASSUME THAT OF A NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM. BASED ON SOME
NON-RAIN-CONTAMINATED VECTORS FROM A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS...CURRENT
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT. A FRONTAL ZONE IS IN THE VICINITY...
AS EVIDENCED BY COOL AIR STRATOCUMULUS JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE STORM. THICKNESS AND SURFACE PRESSURE FORECASTS FROM THE
GFS DEPICT DELTA AS A FRONTAL CYCLONE IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS.
THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM AS AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. THE EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF
DELTA SHOULD BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE CANARY AND
MADEIRA ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND DELTA'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT IS LIKELY
TO BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER
NORTHWESTERN AFRICA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST NORTH OF EAST NEAR 25 KT. A
GENERALLY ZONAL CURRENT...PREVAILING AT MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS...
SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A MOSTLY EASTWARD TRACK INTO
MOROCCO...BUT THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED
FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS BUT IS NOT AS FAST AS THE GFS. THIS IS ONLY A LITTLE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 30.2N 23.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 30.3N 18.9W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 29/0600Z 30.3N 13.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 29/1800Z 30.3N 7.2W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 30/0600Z 30.0N 2.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 01/0600Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE
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#40 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 28, 2005 7:46 am

As it has made the full transition to extratropical status the 10 AM EST advisorie will be the last one.
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