TS Delta Advisories

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P.K.
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#41 Postby P.K. » Mon Nov 28, 2005 9:56 am

WTNT43 KNHC 281430
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST MON NOV 28 2005

ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT
...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS TAKEN ON THE APPEARANCE OF A MID-
LATITUDE OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DELTA HAS MERGED WITH AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM AND... AS A RESULT...
IS RAPIDLY ACQUIRING EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 55 KT BASED ON NUMEROUS 50-55 KT
WIND VECTORS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF A 28/0642Z HI-RES
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. SINCE THOSE WIND VECTORS WERE LOCATED IN THE
RAIN-FREE DRY SLOT... THEY ARE CONSIDERED BE VALID.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 085/26 KT. WHILE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE... THE
BROAD AND ELONGATED CENTER OF DELTA APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED EASTWARD
AND HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...DESPITE 60
KT WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHWEST OF DELTA AS IT SWINGS
EASTWARD... WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A
GENERAL EASTWARD DIRECTION AT 25-30 KT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF DELTA IS EXPECTED TO PASS BETWEEN THE CANARY AND
MADEIRA ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST OF MOROCCO BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF DELTA
APPEARS TO BE GIVING THE SYSTEM A SHOT OF ADDITIONAL BAROCLINIC
ENERGY. GIVEN THE RECENT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND THE 25-30
FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE... I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP DELTA AS A
STORM SYSTEM UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE MOROCCAN COAST.
HOWEVER... GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL SOUTH OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL AND COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN COASTAL
AREAS OF MAURITANIA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REACH THOSE AREAS AT
LEAST 6 HOURS BEFORE THE CENTER MAKES IT CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH
TO THOSE LAND MASSES/COUNTRIES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONGER OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS... AND IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN LOCATED EAST OF MARRAKESH MOROCCO.

THIS WILL BE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON DELTA BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN METEO-FRANCE ATLANTIQUE
METAREA-II MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW...
AND IN MARINE BULLETINS ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER FONT50 LFPW.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 30.3N 20.1W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 29/0000Z 30.3N 15.6W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 29/1200Z 30.5N 9.7W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 30/0000Z 30.7N 3.3W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
48HR VT 30/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER LAND
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