Epsilon Advisories

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cjrciadt
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1481
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:11 pm
Location: Kissimmee, FL

#21 Postby cjrciadt » Thu Dec 01, 2005 4:04 pm

000
WTNT44 KNHC 012037
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST THU DEC 01 2005

CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...ALTHOUGH THE
RAGGED BANDED EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T3.5/55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB... A VISIBLE EYE
PATTERN OF NEARLY T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND AODT ESTIMATES... AND A
01/1710Z UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 982 MB/66 KT... WHICH
IS A DECREASE OF 3 MB AND AN INCREASE OF 5 KT FROM THE 01/0944Z
ESTIMATE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/09. EPSILON SEEMS TO HAVE
STEADIED ON A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION... AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS INDICATE THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW TO THE WEST OF
THE LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE IN WHICH EPSILON IS EMBEDDED IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE WEST TO WESTSOUTHWESTERLY. A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS MOTION
AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE
ZONAL/WESTERLY IN 48-120 HOURS. EVEN THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS
HAVE ABANDONED THEIR PREVIOUS STALLING OF EPSILON TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES. THE ONLY OUTLIER MODELS ARE THE GFDL AND GFS
ENSEMBLE MODELS... WHICH RACE EPSILON NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 72
HOURS AND HAVE THE CYCLONE EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN 120 HOURS. THOSE
TWO MODELS WERE DISCOUNTED SINCE THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BECOME ZONAL WITH TIME.

THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND
SHIP DEDM LOCATED ABOUT 85 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER REPORTED A
SST OF 77F/25C. SO IT APPEARS THAT EPSILON IS MOVING OVER A NARROW
RIDGE OF WARMER WATER... WHICH COULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BRIEFLY
BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO
. HOWEVER... SLOW
BUT STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN 12-24 HOURS AS EPSILON
MOVES OVER 22C AND COLDER SSTS AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 31.7N 51.0W 60 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 32.7N 49.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 34.1N 48.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 35.3N 46.3W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 03/1800Z 36.4N 44.6W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 04/1800Z 38.5N 40.2W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 05/1800Z 41.0N 35.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 06/1800Z 42.5N 31.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114779
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#22 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 01, 2005 9:34 pm

TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST THU DEC 01 2005

...EPSILON MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKENING...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST OR ABOUT
855 MILES...1370 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1365 MILES..
2200 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

ALTHOUGH EPSILON WILL NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT BERMUDA... LARGE OCEAN
SWELLS THAT WERE GENERATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF EPSILON ARE
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY SURF AND
ROUGH WAVE CONDITIONS AROUND THE ISLAND TONIGHT...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...32.2 N... 50.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN


WTNT44 KNHC 020232
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST THU DEC 01 2005

WHILE THE CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AND A RAGGED EYE
REMAINS APPARENT...THE COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
EPSILON HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 55 KT. WHILE THERE IS STILL FAIR
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...THERE IS NO
OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/8. A LARGE-DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD STEER EPSILON
NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE STORM IS FAR
FROM THE CORE OF STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. THIS
MEANS EPSILON WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE MUCH FASTER THAN IT IS NOW.
THE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH 72 HR.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE...WITH THE GFS...
GFDL...AND CANADIAN ACCELERATING EPSILON NORTHWARD...AND THE NOGAPS
AND ECMWF TURNING IT MORE EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD. GIVEN
THIS SPREAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOWER EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.

EPSILON WILL BE OVER 22C-23C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT
12-24 HR. AFTER THAT...THE SSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY COOL ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK. THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
PRODUCE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. EXPERIMENTAL CYCLONE PHASE
DIAGRAMS FROM FSU SUGGEST THAT EPSILON SHOULD BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 36 HR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE THE TRANSITION
COULD BE DELAYED AS THE COLD FRONT THAT COULD CAUSE IT IS STILL
WELL WEST OF EPSILON.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 32.2N 50.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 33.2N 48.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 34.6N 47.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 35.8N 45.2W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 04/0000Z 36.9N 43.1W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 05/0000Z 39.0N 39.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 06/0000Z 41.0N 35.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 07/0000Z 42.5N 31.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Coredesat

#23 Postby Coredesat » Fri Dec 02, 2005 4:05 am

000
WTNT24 KNHC 020833
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005
0900Z FRI DEC 02 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 49.4W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..500NE 500SE 500SW 500NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 49.4W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 49.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 33.8N 48.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 35.2N 46.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 36.5N 44.2W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 37.8N 42.2W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 40.5N 37.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 125NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 42.5N 33.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 44.5N 30.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.8N 49.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

FORECASTER KNABB
Last edited by Coredesat on Fri Dec 02, 2005 4:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Coredesat

#24 Postby Coredesat » Fri Dec 02, 2005 4:05 am

000
WTNT34 KNHC 020832
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI DEC 02 2005

...EPSILON CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 49.4 WEST OR ABOUT
895 MILES...1445 KM... EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1310 MILES...2105
KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...32.8 N... 49.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB


$$
0 likes   

Coredesat

#25 Postby Coredesat » Fri Dec 02, 2005 4:06 am

000
WTNT44 KNHC 020900
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST FRI DEC 02 2005

DEEP CONVECTION HAS MADE SOMEWHAT OF A COMEBACK DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE BAND NORTH OF THE CENTER WHERE
TOPS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN COLDER THAN -60C. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS AT
06Z CORRESPONDINGLY CAME UP A LITTLE BUT THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KT. SINCE THE CONVECTIVE BANDING IS A LITTLE
MORE CONSOLIDATED THAN SIX HOURS AGO AND IS WRAPPING MORE AROUND
THE CENTER... EPSILON DOES NOT APPEAR WEAKER AND THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS KEPT ON THE HIGH END OF THE RANGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
AT 55 KT. AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
EPSILON BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. EVEN THOUGH EPSILON WILL BE OVER
SUB-22C WATERS WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS... THE FORECAST TIMING OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION REMAINS 36-48 HOURS SINCE EPSILON WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN SEPARATED FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS UNTIL THEN... EVEN IF THE FASTEST AND
NORTHERNMOST MODEL TRACK VERIFIES.

EPSILON IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AT 050/9
KT. A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED ARE ANTICIPATED BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FOR ABOUT THE
NEXT 48 HOURS... AS EPSILON WILL BE PUSHED AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH THAT IS WELL TO ITS WEST AND ABOUT TO ADVANCE OFF THE U.S.
EAST COAST. MODEL FORECASTS BEYOND THAT TIME HANDLE EXTRATROPICAL
EPSILON IN VERY DIFFERENT WAYS. IF THE GFS AND GFDL ARE
CORRECT...THE STORM WILL BE SWEPT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AND MERGE
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN LESS THAN FIVE DAYS. HOWEVER... IF THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS ARE RIGHT... EPSILON MIGHT EVEN DIVE
SOUTHWARD ON DAY FIVE AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE TO ITS WEST.
THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE... BUT DUE TO THE
MODEL SPREAD THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 32.8N 49.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 33.8N 48.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 35.2N 46.1W 50 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 36.5N 44.2W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 04/0600Z 37.8N 42.2W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 05/0600Z 40.5N 37.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 06/0600Z 42.5N 33.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 07/0600Z 44.5N 30.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
0 likes   

Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4374
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Angleton, TX

#26 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Dec 02, 2005 9:31 am

HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI DEC 02 2005

...EPSILON BECOMES YET ANOTHER HURRICANE IN THE RECORD BREAKING
2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 48.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1220
MILES...1965 KM... WEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY... BUT GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 28 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...33.7 N... 48.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes   

Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4374
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Angleton, TX

#27 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Dec 02, 2005 9:32 am

HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST FRI DEC 02 2005

DESPITE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY
...EPSILON HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A SOLID
CONVECTIVE BAND NOW WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE CYCLONE CENTER
...WHICH HAS PRODUCED A WELL-DEFINED 25 NMI DIAMETER EYE. THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS ALSO CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65 FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND A 01/0920Z
NESDIS/CIRA AMSU PRESSSURE ESTIMATE WAS 986 MB.. AND 01/0920Z
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS WAS 985 MB/66 KT. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION... EPSILON HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE. THIS
IS NOT UNPRECEDENTED FOR A HURRICANE TO FORM THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON OR OVER THIS PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HURRICANE NOEL IN
NOVEMBER 2001 FORMED NEAR 38N 50W...ABOUT 250 NMI NORTH OF EPSILON.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/12 KT. SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS FROM ALL
THREE AGENCIES HAVE BEEN COMING IN ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK
...SO LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED
TO BECOME MORE CONVERGENT ON A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72
HOURS. AFTERWARDS... HOWEVER... THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON
HOW THEY HANDLE EPSILON AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE GFDL AND GFDN
TAKE EPSILON MORE NORTHWARD... WHEREAS THE GFS... UKMET... AND
NOGAPS MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE MORE EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD BY 120
HOURS DUE TO COMPLEX INTERACTION AND/OR MERGER WITH ANOTHER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE AZORES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND
REMAINS A LITTLE NORTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

SHIP DEDM LOCATED ABOUT 160 NMI EAST OF EPSILON AT 12Z REPORTED A
SST OF 24C/75F... WHICH INDICATES THAT EPSILON HAS BEEN MOVING
ALONG A NARROW RIDGE OF WARMER SSTS. THIS LIKELY EXPLAINS TO A
LARGE DEGREE WHY EPSILON HAS BEEN ABLE TO IMPROVE ITS CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... BUOYS NORTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE INDICATE SSTS BELOW 70F ARE LESS THAN 200 NMI AWAY. AS
SUCH... EPSILON SHOULD BEGIN TO STEADILY WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS AND PROBABLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 36 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 33.7N 48.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 34.6N 46.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 35.8N 45.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 04/0000Z 37.0N 43.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 04/1200Z 38.3N 40.7W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 05/1200Z 40.8N 36.2W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 06/1200Z 43.0N 32.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 07/1200Z 44.5N 29.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
0 likes   

User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

#28 Postby P.K. » Fri Dec 02, 2005 3:36 pm

WTNT44 KNHC 022031
TCDAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST FRI DEC 02 2005

EPSILON HAS MAINTAINED A 25 NMI DIAMETER EYE AND THE OUTFLOW
PATTERN HAS REMAINED WELL-ESTABLISHED. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN AT T4.0/65 FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND A 02/0701Z
AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS WAS 982 MB/70 KT. BASED ON
THIS INFORMATION... EPSILON REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE... ALTHOUGH
IT COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/10 KT. SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES
INDICATE EPSILON HAS REMAINED ON TRACK. UNFORTUNATELY... THAT CAN
NOT BE SAID FOR THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE... WHICH HAS MADE A HUGE
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS THAT THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE
LATEST INTERPOLATED FORECAST TRACK ARE BOTH NORTH OF THE GUIDANCE
SUITE. OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS...HOWEVER... THE MODELS HAVE HAD A
TENDENCY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AND THEN SHIFT BACK
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS
ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND IS ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE UKMET... ECMWF...
AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS... WHICH HAVE BEEN THE STEADIEST MODELS.
HOPEFULLY THE SOUTHWARD TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS THAT THE GFS...GFS
ENSEMBLE... NOGAPS... AND GFDN MODELS ARE FORECASTING WILL NOT
MATERIALIZE SO THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON CAN FINALLY END.

EPSILON HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY... AND STEADY
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE
BEGINS TO MOVE OVER SUB-20C SSTS AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS OVER TO
A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36-48 HOURS.

GOING BACK TO 1851... HISTORICAL RECORDS INDICATE EPSILON IS ONLY
THE FIFTH HURRICANE TO FORM DURING THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. OTHER
DECEMBER HURRICANES ARE... UNNAMED 1887... UNNAMED 1925... ALICE #2
IN 1954... AND LILI 1984. EPSILON IS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH HURRICANE
TO EVER OCCUR DURING DECEMBER... INCLUDING UNNAMED 1887... UNNAMED
1925... ALICE #2 IN 1954... LILI 1984... AND NICOLE 1998.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 34.2N 47.4W 65 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 35.1N 45.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 36.1N 43.9W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 04/0600Z 37.2N 41.7W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 04/1800Z 38.4N 39.3W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 05/1800Z 40.5N 35.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 06/1800Z 42.5N 31.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 07/1800Z 44.0N 28.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 33142
Age: 30
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: DFW
Contact:

#29 Postby Brent » Fri Dec 02, 2005 3:49 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI DEC 02 2005

...EPSILON MAINTAINS HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE COOL WATERS OF
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 47.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1165
MILES...1875 KM... WEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT... BUT GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...34.2 N... 47.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes   
#neversummer

rainstorm

#30 Postby rainstorm » Fri Dec 02, 2005 6:46 pm

a december hurricane. amazing
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114779
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#31 Postby cycloneye » Fri Dec 02, 2005 9:50 pm

HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST FRI DEC 02 2005

...EPSILON CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1115
MILES...1795 KM... WEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...34.5 N... 46.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$


543
WTNT24 KNHC 030248
TCMAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005
0300Z SAT DEC 03 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 46.6W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 400SE 400SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 46.6W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 47.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.2N 45.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 36.1N 42.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 36.9N 40.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 37.5N 38.2W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 39.0N 34.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 39.0N 31.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 39.0N 30.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 46.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN



085
WTNT44 KNHC 030248
TCDAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST FRI DEC 02 2005

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE STRUCTURE OF EPSILON OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING MODEST AMOUNTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION...A WELL-DEFINED EYE...AND ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN 65 KT FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER THAT MUCH
WIND IS REALLY MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE GIVEN THE MODEST CONVECTION
AND COOL SSTS. AS LUCK WOULD HAVE IT...THIS EVENING'S QUIKSCAT
PASSES MISSED THE CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/9...BUT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS EPSILON HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF THAT HEADING...AND
THE MOTION OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS COULD BE QUITE IMPORTANT FOR
EPSILON'S ULTIMATE TRACK. THERE HAVE BEEN ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN THE
TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH ARE ESSENTIALLY NOW SPLIT BETWEEN TWO
SCENARIOS. THE 12Z UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS FAVOR A CONTINUED
MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST AND ABSORPTION BY A
MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WITHIN THREE DAYS. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND NOW ALSO THE ECMWF...
SHOW EPSILON MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE WESTERLIES AND TURNING
SOUTHWARD AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFDL AND GFS IN PARTICULAR ARE VERY
QUICK IN TURNING EPSILON EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF EPSILON
SHOWS MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT. GIVEN THIS...AND
THE RECENT RIGHTWARD DEFLECTION OF THE TRACK...I AM INCLINED TO
FAVOR THE LATTER OF THE TWO SCENARIOS. WHILE THE OFFICIAL TRACK
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED CONSIDERABLY SOUTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AT DAYS 4 AND 5...IT IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTH OF MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE...AND FURTHER SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE
REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES.

WATER TEMPERATURES DECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...AND SO A SLOW
SPIN DOWN OF THE VORTEX IS ANTICIPATED...WITH A GRADUAL LOSS OF
CONVECTION AND TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER...IF A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK MATERIALIZES...WEAKENING AND/OR EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION COULD BE DELAYED BEYOND WHAT IS INDICATED BELOW.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0300Z 34.5N 46.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 35.2N 45.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 36.1N 42.8W 55 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 36.9N 40.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 05/0000Z 37.5N 38.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 06/0000Z 39.0N 34.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 07/0000Z 39.0N 31.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 08/0000Z 39.0N 30.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cjrciadt
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1481
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:11 pm
Location: Kissimmee, FL

#32 Postby cjrciadt » Fri Dec 02, 2005 9:55 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Matt-hurricanewatcher
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11649
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Nov 26, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Portland,OR
Contact:

#33 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Dec 03, 2005 3:55 am

000
WTNT44 KNHC 030834
TCDAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SAT DEC 03 2005

EPSILON CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT AN EYE...AND IS STILL MAINTAINING
MODEST AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION...WITH ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW PRIMARILY
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DOWN SLIGHTLY
BUT SINCE THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM...IT IS BEING KEPT AT HURRICANE STATUS FOR
THIS ADVISORY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE LESS
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SOMEWHAT. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS PER THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE HEADED ON A LOWER LATITUDE
TRACK THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...THE PREDICTION OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION HAS BEEN DELAYED SLIGHTLY. INDEED...IF EPSILON BEGINS
TO ACQUIRE A SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...IT COULD
PERSIST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LONGER THAN SHOWN IN THIS FORECAST.

THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE RIGHT AND IS NOW MOVING JUST NORTH
OF DUE EAST...075/08. EARLIER IT WAS THOUGHT THAT THE FLOW AHEAD
OF A SERIES OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHS...MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WOULD TAKE EPSILON NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER NOW MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE U.K.
MET OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL...INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL STEERING
FLOW AHEAD OF THESE TROUGHS WILL DEFLECT NORTHWARD AND NOT PICK UP
THE CYCLONE. THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEM TURNING TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. ONLY THE U.K. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS PICKING
UP EPSILON AND CARRYING IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH THE UKMET IS A VERY GOOD TRACK FORECAST
MODEL...IT IS ADVISABLE TO BE CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
BUT DOES NOT YET ADMIT A SIZABLE SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION LATER IN THE PERIOD.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0900Z 34.6N 45.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 35.0N 44.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 35.4N 41.4W 55 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 35.7N 38.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 35.9N 36.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 06/0600Z 36.0N 33.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 07/0600Z 35.5N 32.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 08/0600Z 35.0N 32.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114779
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#34 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 03, 2005 9:42 am

WTNT34 KNHC 031441
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SAT DEC 03 2005

...TENACIOUS EPSILON REFUSES TO WEAKEN...BUT FORECAST TO DO SO...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1000
MILES...1605 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND EPSILON COULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...34.5 N... 44.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$


If nothing appears above but an error message, no current WTNT34 data were found.

686
WTNT24 KNHC 031441
TCMAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005
1500Z SAT DEC 03 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 44.4W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 44.4W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 45.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 34.5N 42.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 34.5N 40.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 34.5N 37.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 34.5N 35.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 34.0N 34.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 33.0N 33.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 31.0N 34.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 44.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA



HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SAT DEC 03 2005

EPSILON CONSISTS OF A NARROW RING OF MODERATE CONVECTION...A LARGE
RAGGED EYE AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65
KNOTS BASED ON BOTH DVORAK AND AMSU ESTIMATES. EPSILON IS A
TENACIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH HAS MAINTAINED HURRICANE INTENSITY
OVER COOL WATERS AND APPARENT UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.
ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL...THE ONLY PARAMETER WHICH IS
CONTRIBUTING POSITIVELY TO THE INTENSITY IS THE 200 MB TEMPERATURE.
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE BRINGING STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE CYCLONE SOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH EVEN
COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD
RESULT IN WEAKENING AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. HOWEVER...WE HAVE
BEEN EXPECTING SUCH TRANSITION BUT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF THIS
HAPPENING YET.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AT 10 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MIDLATITUDE FLOW. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UK
MODEL...THE REST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A BLOCKING HIGH TO
THE NORTH OF EPSILON AND ANOTHER LARGE LOW TO THE SOUTH. THIS
PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A SLOW MOTION BEYOND 48 HOURS WITH A TURN TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BY
THEN...EPSILON IS FORECAST TO HAVE WEAKENED AND I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 34.5N 44.4W 65 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 34.5N 42.6W 60 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 34.5N 40.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 34.5N 37.5W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 05/1200Z 34.5N 35.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 06/1200Z 34.0N 34.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 07/1200Z 33.0N 33.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 08/1200Z 31.0N 34.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114779
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#35 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 03, 2005 3:37 pm

121
WTNT34 KNHC 032028
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT DEC 03 2005

...EPSILON STRENGTHENS AGAINST ALL ODDS...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.1 WEST OR ABOUT 930
MILES...1495 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
HOWEVER...EPSILON SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...34.5 N... 43.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$




289
WTNT24 KNHC 032029
TCMAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005
2100Z SAT DEC 03 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 43.1W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 400SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 43.1W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 43.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 34.5N 41.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 34.5N 38.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 34.5N 36.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 34.0N 34.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 32.5N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 30.0N 34.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 28.0N 36.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 43.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA


697
WTNT44 KNHC 032029
TCDAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SAT DEC 03 2005

EPSILON HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AGAINST ALL ODDS. THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS REMARKABLY WELL-ORGANIZED FOR A HURRICANE AT HIGH
LATITUDE IN DECEMBER...EMBEDDED IN A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND ENVIRONMENT AND MOVING OVER 21-22 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER.
SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS THE BEST SO FAR AND IN FACT...DATA-T
NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE...SUPPORTING 77 KNOTS. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS
MOVING OVER COOL WATER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ONLY
INCREASED TO 70 KNOTS. EPSILON CAN NOT MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
INTENSITY MUCH LONGER SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A LARGE MASS OF
DRY AIR AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS NEARING THE HURRICANE. A GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS INDICATED AND ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES
TO SHOW EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN A DAY OR TWO...MOST LIKELY A
GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OVER COLD WATERS WILL OCCUR.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS...IT APPEARS THAT
EPSILON IS RUNNING AWAY FROM THE APPROACHING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE
UK MODEL HAS NOW JOINED THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE AND UNANIMOUSLY...
ALL MODELS TURN EPSILON TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...AFTER A SMALL PERIOD
OF SLOW MOTION BETWEEN A BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING
LOW TO THE SOUTH. THIS MAKES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENT IN TURNING THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER...BY THEN
THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE AND EPSILON
MOST LIKELY BE JUST A REMNANT LOW.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 34.5N 43.1W 70 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 34.5N 41.2W 60 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 34.5N 38.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 34.5N 36.5W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 05/1800Z 34.0N 34.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 06/1800Z 32.5N 33.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 07/1800Z 30.0N 34.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 08/1800Z 28.0N 36.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Matt-hurricanewatcher
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11649
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Nov 26, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Portland,OR
Contact:

#36 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Dec 03, 2005 3:39 pm

I find it kind of funny that they weaken it to nothing. While taking it below 30 north. I don't think that will happen.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114779
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#37 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 03, 2005 9:44 pm

238
WTNT24 KNHC 040243
TCMAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005
0300Z SUN DEC 04 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 41.6W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 95 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 25SE 25SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 45SE 45SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 100SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 400SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 41.6W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 42.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 34.2N 39.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 45SE 45SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 100SE 100SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 34.1N 37.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 33.8N 35.3W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 33.3N 33.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 30.5N 33.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 27.0N 36.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 23.5N 40.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 41.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB


248
WTNT34 KNHC 040244
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SAT DEC 03 2005

...EPSILON STILL A HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 41.6 WEST OR ABOUT 855
MILES... 1370 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 13 MPH... 20 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND
EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES... 185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...34.3 N... 41.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114779
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#38 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 03, 2005 10:02 pm

664
WTNT44 KNHC 040300
TCDAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SAT DEC 03 2005

EPSILON MAINTAINS A RAGGED 20 N MI WIDE EYE... BUT THE CONVECTION
SEEMS TO BE THINNING OUT A LITTLE... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ONLY CONVECTIVE TOPS COLDER THAN -50C ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR ALL THAT VIGOROUS...
AND A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AROUND 22Z DID NOT REVEAL ANY WINDS
STRONGER THAN 50 KT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION THAT IT
SAMPLED. NEVERTHELESS... 00Z DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 55 TO 75
KT... ALTHOUGH THE DATA T NUMBERS HAVE ALL FALLEN TO 4.0 OR LESS.
EPSILON MIGHT OR MIGHT NOT STILL BE A HURRICANE... BUT IN ANY CASE
IT LIKELY WILL BE ONE ON SUNDAY... SINCE IT IS HEADED FOR EVEN
COOLER WATERS WHILE DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLIES ARE
NOT FAR BEHIND. THE STEADY WEAKENING INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A LITTLE
MORE RAPID THAT FORECAST BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS FORECAST AT ABOUT 36 HOURS SINCE EPSILON WILL BE OVER
SUB-22C WATERS AND WILL PROBABLY BECOME ENTANGLED IN THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.

EVEN THOUGH EPSILON TOOK A SLIGHT JOG TO THE SOUTH EARLIER THIS
EVENING... THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL TOWARD THE EAST OR
095/11. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS
UNTIL A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WEST OF EPSILON AS
ANTICIPATED BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. SINCE EPSILON IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING BY THAT TIME... IT SHOULD COME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER- TO MIDDLE-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT SHOULD PULL EPSILON SOUTHWESTWARD... AS
FORECAST UNANIMOUSLY BY THE MODELS. STRONG WIND SHEAR SHOULD STRIP
EXTRATROPICAL EPSILON OF ANY REMAINING CONVECTION... LEAVING A
REMNANT LOW TO SWEEP WESTWARD IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 34.3N 41.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 34.2N 39.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 34.1N 37.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 33.8N 35.3W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 06/0000Z 33.3N 33.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 07/0000Z 30.5N 33.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 08/0000Z 27.0N 36.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 09/0000Z 23.5N 40.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

#39 Postby P.K. » Sun Dec 04, 2005 3:47 am

Downgraded to a TS.

WTNT44 KNHC 040830
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SUN DEC 04 2005

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR PENETRATING THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OF THE CIRCULATION UNDERNEATH THE CIRRUS CANOPY...AND THE EYEWALL
CONVECTION HAS THINNED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. DATA T NUMBERS
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...AND EPSILON IS
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS BASIS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 090/11. EPSILON CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN A
WEAK WESTERLY STEERING CURRENT. A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTHWEST
OF EPSILON IS ALSO MOVING EASTWARD...BUT MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS ZONE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
PASS NEAR BUT NORTH OF EPSILON IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO...AFTER
WHICH HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN...BLOCKING EPSILON'S
PATH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWESTWARD
TURN AFTER 48 HOURS. THE UKMET IS STILL SOMETHING OF AN OUTLIER
FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS WITH AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DISCOUNTS THE UKMET...WHICH MISSED YESTERDAY'S
EASTWARD MOTION...AND IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK...WATER TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE ONLY
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE GFDL SHOWS LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THIS TIME. EPSILON HAS CARVED OUT FOR
ITSELF A LITTLE POCKET OF MODERATE SHEAR...OF ABOUT 20-25 KT
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM UW/CIMSS. HIGHER VALUES
EXIST IN THE NEAR ENVIRONMENT OF THE CYCLONE THOUGH...AND IF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THE CORE CONVECTION THEN
EPSILON COULD QUICKLY FIND ITSELF OVERTAKEN BY THE SHEAR AND
DEGENERATE TO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EPSILON COULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BEFORE
THAT...WHEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE APPROACHES IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0900Z 34.3N 40.4W 60 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 34.3N 38.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 34.2N 36.3W 45 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 34.0N 34.4W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 06/0600Z 33.0N 33.0W 35 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 07/0600Z 30.0N 35.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 08/0600Z 26.0N 39.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 09/0600Z 22.0N 44.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
0 likes   

User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

#40 Postby P.K. » Sun Dec 04, 2005 11:04 am

HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN DEC 04 2005

AFTER A SLIGHT WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE THAT EPSILON HAS RESTRENGTHENED. THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE
SYMMETRIC AND THE RING OF CONVECTION IS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY.
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND ON THIS
BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. THERE ARE
NO CLEAR REASONS...AND I AM NOT GOING TO MAKE ONE UP...TO EXPLAIN
THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF EPSILON AND I AM JUST DESCRIBING THE
FACTS. HOWEVER...I STILL HAVE TO MAKE AN INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE
BEST BET AT THIS TIME IS TO PREDICT WEAKENING DUE TO COLD WATER
...HIGH SHEAR AND DRY AIR.

EPSILON IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS...RUNNING AHEAD OF A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BUT SOON...ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL
MODELS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE
WHICH EVENTUALLY FORCE EPSILON SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD.
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS MOTION.
ALTHOUGH EPSILON WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER WATERS ONCE IT MOVES TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE AND EPSILON WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW. I
HEARD THAT BEFORE ABOUT EPSILON...HAVEN'T YOU?

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 34.3N 39.2W 75 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 34.3N 37.2W 60 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 34.0N 35.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 33.5N 33.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 06/1200Z 32.0N 33.5W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 07/1200Z 29.0N 36.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 08/1200Z 25.5N 39.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 09/1200Z 21.5N 44.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
0 likes   


Return to “2005”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests