Epsilon Advisories

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#41 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 04, 2005 11:33 am

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PRETTY TIGHT CORE!
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#42 Postby Andrew92 » Sun Dec 04, 2005 2:16 pm

I
HEARD THAT BEFORE ABOUT EPSILON...HAVEN'T YOU?


:roflmao: !!!
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#43 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 04, 2005 3:33 pm

688
WTNT24 KNHC 042032
TCMAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005
2100Z SUN DEC 04 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 38.0W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 400SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 38.0W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 38.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 34.4N 36.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 34.0N 34.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 33.0N 33.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 32.0N 34.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 29.0N 37.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 25.0N 41.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 21.5N 45.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 38.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA


HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SUN DEC 04 2005

EPSILON HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY AND IS NOW ON A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TREND. THE HURRICANE HAS A LARGE SYMMETRIC EYE SURROUNDED
BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. SINCE THE EYE HAS BEEN IN STEADY
STATE...THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE HIGHLY BASED ON THE
STRUCTURE OF THIS CONVECTIVE RING. THE BEST WIND ESTIMATE IS 70
KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT EPSILON NO LONGER WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
SINCE THE FRONTAL ZONE JUST PASSED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND THERE
WAS NO APPARENT INTERACTION. INSTEAD...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND THEN BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS SOON AS IT MAKES
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AND ENCOUNTERS VERY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS.

EPSILON HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE ON A STEADY EASTWARD TRACK AT ABOUT 10
KNOTS. ONCE AGAIN IN THE LAST RUN...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND A LOW TO THE SOUTH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY FORCE
EPSILON SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD. BY THEN...THE REMNANT LOW
SHOULD INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
MUCH LIKE ONE OF THOSE SHALLOW SYSTEMS OVER THE COOL WATERS OF THE
EAST PACIFIC.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 34.3N 38.0W 70 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 34.4N 36.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 34.0N 34.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 33.0N 33.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 32.0N 34.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 29.0N 37.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 08/1800Z 25.0N 41.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 09/1800Z 21.5N 45.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
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#44 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 04, 2005 9:38 pm

699
WTNT34 KNHC 050231
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN DEC 04 2005

...EPSILON STILL A HURRICANE...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 37.3 WEST OR ABOUT 630
MILES...1015 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EPSILON IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...34.2 N... 37.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$




139
WTNT24 KNHC 050230
TCMAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005
0300Z MON DEC 05 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 37.3W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 100SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 400SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 37.3W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 37.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 34.0N 35.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 100SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 33.4N 34.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 32.5N 34.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 31.2N 34.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 28.0N 38.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 25.0N 41.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 22.0N 45.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 37.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

FORECASTER PASCH



HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN DEC 04 2005

SATELLITE IMAGES STILL DEPICT A LARGE EYE...BUT THERE ARE BREAKS IN
THE EYEWALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. HIGH RESOLUTION
QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 2125Z SHOWED SEVERAL 60-KT VECTORS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE AND IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE PEAK
WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. ALSO...DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS
AND AMSU ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM...WHERE A FRONTAL CLOUD BAND EXTENDS
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SINCE EPSILON IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD LOWER LATITUDES...IT IS NOT LIKELY
TO INTERACT MUCH MORE WITH THIS FRONT. HOWEVER THE GFS SHOWS THE
SYSTEM BECOMING ENMESHED WITHIN A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE
THAT IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IN A FEW
DAYS. THIS...ALONG WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...IS LIKELY TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS WEEK. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM
DISSIPATING BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EPSILON APPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF EAST...AROUND 100/8.
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD...SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO THE STEERING
BETWEEN A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED BLOCKING RIDGE AND THE
ABOVEMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW. THE GFDL MODEL DOES NOT DRIVE THE
SYSTEM AS MUCH TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. IN
DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT GO QUITE AS
FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST AS SHOWN BY THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY'S TRACK FORECAST.

BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA...SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND RADII
WERE MADE.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 34.2N 37.3W 65 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 34.0N 35.8W 60 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 33.4N 34.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z 32.5N 34.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 07/0000Z 31.2N 34.9W 30 KT
72HR VT 08/0000Z 28.0N 38.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 09/0000Z 25.0N 41.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 10/0000Z 22.0N 45.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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#45 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Dec 04, 2005 10:03 pm

There is no signs that this is weaking it is looking better! Lets see just what this thing doe's!
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#46 Postby HurricaneBill » Sun Dec 04, 2005 10:42 pm

I think the NHC is about ready to strangle Epsilon.
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#47 Postby Brent » Sun Dec 04, 2005 11:24 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:I think the NHC is about ready to strangle Epsilon.


:roflmao:!!!!!!

Best quote ever. :P
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#48 Postby TheEuropean » Mon Dec 05, 2005 4:53 am

000
WTNT34 KNHC 050831
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST MON DEC 05 2005

...EPSILON MAINTAINING STRENGTH OVER THE COOL WATERS OF THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 36.2 WEST OR ABOUT 590
MILES... 950 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...33.8 N... 36.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 986 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#49 Postby TheEuropean » Mon Dec 05, 2005 4:54 am

000
WTNT24 KNHC 050830
TCMAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005
0900Z MON DEC 05 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 36.2W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 100SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 400SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 36.2W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 36.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 33.5N 35.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 100SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 32.7N 34.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 31.3N 34.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 29.8N 36.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 26.5N 39.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 43.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 20.0N 47.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 36.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#50 Postby TheEuropean » Mon Dec 05, 2005 4:55 am

000
WTNT44 KNHC 050830
TCDAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST MON DEC 05 2005

DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL...WHICH HAD BEEN RAGGED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT EARLIER...HAS BECOME COLDER AND MORE
SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS
FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 06Z HAD BEEN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT SINCE THEN HAVE BOUNCED BACK UP TO T4.5. WITH NO
REAL OBSERVATIONS EXCEPT FOR QUIKSCAT PASSES ONCE OR TWICE A
DAY...IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHETHER EPSILON'S INTENSITY HAS BEEN
FOLLOWING THESE DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE DVORAK VALUES.
CONSEQUENTLY...I'D LIKE TO SEE EPSILON MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE FOR A WHILE LONGER BEFORE CHANGING THE
INTENSITY AGAIN. THE ADVISORY VALUE WILL REMAIN 65 KT...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.

EPSILON CONTINUES TO MOVE A LITTLE SOUTH OF EAST...105/9. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE FORECASTING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE CYCLONE'S
STEERING CURRENTS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH OF EPSILON AND A BLOCKING HIGH
IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE TO THE NORTH. IN SPITE OF THE COMPLEXITY
OF THE PATTERN...THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE
FORECAST TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH A SHARP TURN TO THE
SOUTH AND THEN THE SOUTHWEST. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LARGELY UPDATES
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE GFDL HOLDS EPSILON AS A HURRICANE FOR ANOTHER TWO DAYS...WHILE
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A FAIRLY RAPID DECAY.
SSTS UNDER EPSILON ARE ALREADY ABOUT AS COLD AS THEY ARE GOING TO
GET. THE SHEAR IS ALSO NOT GOING TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL
EPSILON BEGINS ITS TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST IN 24 HOURS OR
SO. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSER
TO THE GFDL GUIDANCE EARLY AND SHIPS GUIDANCE LATE. THE MOST
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF EPSILON
WAS STILL QUITE DISTINCT FROM THE FRONTAL BAND EXTENDING FROM
EPSILON NORTHWARD IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND WITH THE SOUTHWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION CONTINUING IT SEEMS THAT AN IMMINENT
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS...ALAS...A LOST CAUSE.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0900Z 33.8N 36.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 33.5N 35.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 32.7N 34.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 06/1800Z 31.3N 34.6W 45 KT
48HR VT 07/0600Z 29.8N 36.1W 35 KT
72HR VT 08/0600Z 26.5N 39.5W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 09/0600Z 23.0N 43.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 10/0600Z 20.0N 47.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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#51 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 05, 2005 9:35 am

471
WTNT34 KNHC 051434
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON DEC 05 2005

...HURRICANE EPSILON REFUSES TO WEAKEN...FUTURE INTENSITY
UNCERTAIN...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.1 WEST OR ABOUT 545
MILES... 880 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND A
TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST IS LIKELY IN A DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...33.6 N... 35.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA


$$



677
WTNT24 KNHC 051434
TCMAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005
1500Z MON DEC 05 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 35.1W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 100SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 400SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 35.1W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 35.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 33.3N 34.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 100SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 32.0N 34.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 30.5N 35.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.0N 37.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 26.0N 40.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 23.0N 43.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 19.5N 47.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 35.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA



675
WTNT44 KNHC 051434
TCDAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST MON DEC 05 2005

SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
YESTERDAY. THE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL HAS
CONTINUED TO FLUCTUATE AND IT IS CURRENTLY SURROUNDING THE LARGE EYE
AGAIN. OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FOR THE PAST 3 HOURS HAVE BEEN
OSCILLATING AROUND 4.5 SUGGESTING WINDS OF 75 KNOTS BUT THE
SUBJECTIVE NUMBERS ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE OR 65 KNOTS. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET IN BETWEEN AT 70 KNOTS. EPSILON HAS IGNORED THE
COLD SSTS AS WELL AS THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND HAS
MAINTAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH. I AM AM NOT GOING TO SPECULATE ANY
MORE ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF EPSILON AND WILL JUST FOLLOW SHIPS
AND GFDL WHICH ARE THE BEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE. SHIPS MODEL
GRADUALLY WEAKENS THE CYCLONE AND THE GFDL KEEPS IT AS A HURRICANE
FOR NEARLY 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEN A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS. BOTH OF THE MODELS EITHER
WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE EPSILON BEYOND 3 DAYS AND SO THE THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS.
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND GLOBAL MODELS
INSIST ON DEVELOPING A MID-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTH AND A CUT OFF
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF EPSILON. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE EPSILON
ON A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK IN DAY OR SO. BY THEN...EPSILON IS EXPECTED
TO BE A WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE OR A REMNANT LOW.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/1500Z 33.6N 35.1W 70 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 33.3N 34.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 32.0N 34.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 30.5N 35.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 29.0N 37.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 08/1200Z 26.0N 40.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 09/1200Z 23.0N 43.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 10/1200Z 19.5N 47.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW


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#52 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 05, 2005 3:36 pm

682
WTNT34 KNHC 052032
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON DEC 05 2005

...EPSILON SLOWING DOWN...EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.4 WEST OR ABOUT 510
MILES... 820 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 3 MPH ...
6 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN OT THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...33.7 N... 34.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$




914
WTNT24 KNHC 052032
TCMAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005
2100Z MON DEC 05 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 34.4W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 100SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 400SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 34.4W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 34.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 33.5N 33.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 100SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 32.0N 34.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 30.5N 35.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 29.0N 36.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.1N 39.1W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 24.0N 41.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 22.5N 42.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 34.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA




WTNT44 KNHC 052035
TCDAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST MON DEC 05 2005

THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE REMARKABLY WELL-ORGANIZED FOR A
HURRICANE AT SUCH HIGH LATITUDE IN DECEMBER. IT HAS A WELL-DEFINED
LARGE EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF CONVECTION...AND THE OUTFLOW IS
ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. EPSILON RESEMBLES ONE OF THESE
ANNULAR HURRICANES OR "TRUCK TIRE PATTERN" DESCRIBED IN THE
SCIENTIFIC LITERATURE. ALTHOUGH THIS CLASSIFICATION IS FOR
HURRICANES IN THE DEEP TROPICS...EPSILON HAS INDEED MAINTAINED ITS
INTENSITY...MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...LIKE THESE TYPE OF ANNULAR
HURRICANES. DVORAK ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70
KNOTS. ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIATED DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...EPSILON SHOULD WEAKEN AT A FASTER
PACE AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD AND
ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR. ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL...THE 200
MB TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN THE ONLY ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETER CONTRIBUTING
POSITIVELY TO THE INTENSITY OF EPSILON FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.

EPSILON IS ALREADY SLOWING DOWN...APPARENTLY GETTING READY TO MAKE
THE SOUTHWARD TURN...MUCH ANTICIPATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TO
SOUTHWEST COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...AND THE GFDL TURNS THE
CYCLONE EASTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DECREASED THE FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 72 HOURS TO COMPENSATE
FOR THE EASTWARD COMPONENT SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL. BY THEN EPSILON
SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW...WE WOULD LIKE.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 33.7N 34.4W 70 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 33.5N 33.9W 65 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 32.0N 34.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 30.5N 35.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 29.0N 36.5W 30 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 26.1N 39.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 09/1800Z 24.0N 41.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 10/1800Z 22.5N 42.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

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#53 Postby JTD » Mon Dec 05, 2005 3:42 pm

Awesome, fascinating and funny discussion by Avila.
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#54 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 05, 2005 9:46 pm

844
WTNT24 KNHC 060245
TCMAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005
0300Z TUE DEC 06 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 33.8W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 100SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 400SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 33.8W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 33.8W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 32.3N 33.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 30.7N 34.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.3N 35.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.8N 37.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.0N 39.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 22.5N 41.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 33.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB



BULLETIN
HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON DEC 05 2005

...EPSILON BEGINNING TO TURN SOUTHWARD AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 33.8 WEST OR ABOUT 500
MILES... 805 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON IS MOVING SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 3
MPH... 6 KM/HR. A MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
EARLY TUESDAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER IN THE
DAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH... 120 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES... 185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...33.3 N... 33.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 986 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#55 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 05, 2005 10:06 pm

718
WTNT44 KNHC 060300
TCDAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST MON DEC 05 2005

WE HAVE SAID THIS BEFORE AT TIMES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...
ONLY TO HAVE EPSILON MAKE A COMEBACK THE FOLLOWING MORNING... BUT
EPSILON REALLY DOES NOT APPEAR AS STRONG THIS EVENING AS IT DID
THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP CONVECTION HAS LOST SOME CONSOLIDATION AND
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE ELONGATED NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE SIMILAR TO BEFORE...
MOSTLY 65 KT WITH ANOTHER AT 77 KT... BUT NOW ALL OF THE T-NUMBERS
CORRESPOND TO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 65 KT. AFTER MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR MOST OF THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS... EPSILON
NOW SEEMS TO HAVE BEGUN THE TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 135/3... AND VERY RECENTLY IT
MIGHT NOT HAVE MOVED MUCH AT ALL.

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL AGREE EPSILON WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD
VERY SOON AND THEN MOVE GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS WEST. ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE APPARENT TURN IN PROGRESS... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENERALLY
FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO WITH CONFIDENCE. OCEAN TEMPERATURES STEADILY
INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK... BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT
LIKELY COOPERATE IN PROVIDING AN ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH EPSILON CAN
SURVIVE VERY LONG AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SOON EPSILON WILL NO
LONGER BE EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP WESTERLY STEERING CURRENT OF THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS... AND BY ABOUT 36 HOURS IT WILL PROBABLY BEGIN
WEAKENING FAIRLY QUICKLY. BY THAT TIME STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
TO THE WEST OF A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR
EPSILON... TO PIECES IF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE
CIRCULATION ARE ANY INDICATION. EVEN THE GFDL FORECASTS THE
REMNANT LOW TO DISSIPATE BY 120 HOURS. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE HAS NOT
PERFORMED WELL DURING EPSILON THUS FAR... IN PART DUE TO A LACK OF
MANY SYSTEMS LIKE THIS IN THE DEVELOPMENTAL DATABASE. SHIPS
CONTINUES TO INSIST ON STEADY WEAKENING... WHICH STILL MIGHT NOT
HAPPEN DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO... BUT SHIPS PROBABLY HAS
THE RIGHT IDEA BEGINNING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS ONCE THE SHEAR REALLY
KICKS IN. SO EPSILON'S DAYS APPEAR TO BE NUMBERED... WITH THAT
NUMBER PROBABLY BEING LESS THAN FIVE... AND THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST ONLY HOLDS ON TO A REMANT LOW THROUGH 96 HOURS. OTHERWISE
THE PACE OF WEAKENING IN THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 33.3N 33.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 32.3N 33.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 30.7N 34.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 29.3N 35.7W 40 KT
48HR VT 08/0000Z 27.8N 37.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 09/0000Z 25.0N 39.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 10/0000Z 22.5N 41.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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#56 Postby Dr. Jonah Rainwater » Mon Dec 05, 2005 11:16 pm

SO EPSILON'S DAYS APPEAR TO BE NUMBERED... WITH THAT
NUMBER PROBABLY BEING LESS THAN FIVE...


FIVE shall be the number of the counting, and the number of the counting shall be FIVE! :lol:

Extra points for the humor reference.
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#57 Postby P.K. » Tue Dec 06, 2005 4:07 am

WTNT44 KNHC 060838
TCDAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST TUE DEC 06 2005

I HAVE RUN OUT OF THINGS TO SAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SHORT.
EPSILON CONTINUES ON STEADY STATE WITH A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
WHICH INTERMITTENTLY SURROUNDS THE LARGE EYE. INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

EPSILON IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 4 KNOTS. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK UNTIL
DISSIPATION IN 120 HOURS OR SOONER. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED
BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. ONLY THE GFDL KEEPS EPSILON AS A
HURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE TRACK BEYOND 3 DAYS
CHANGED BACK TO THE NORTHEAST.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0900Z 32.9N 33.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 32.1N 34.2W 55 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 30.5N 35.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 29.0N 36.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 08/0600Z 28.0N 37.5W 30 KT
72HR VT 09/0600Z 25.0N 40.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 10/0600Z 23.0N 41.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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#58 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 06, 2005 9:42 am

Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 29


Statement as of 11:00 am AST on December 06, 2005



...Epsilon barely holding on to hurricane strength...
At 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located
near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 33.8 west or about 570
miles... 920 km... southwest of the Azores.

Epsilon is moving toward the south near 9 mph... 15 km/hr. A turn
toward the southwest with a slight increase in forward speed is
expected later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph... 120 km/hr... with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles... 45 km... to
the west from the center... and tropical storm force winds extend
outward up to 150 miles... 240 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb...29.15 inches.

Repeating the 11 am AST position...31.9 N... 33.8 W. Movement
toward...south near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 75 mph. Minimum central pressure... 987 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM AST.

Forecaster Knabb

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#59 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 06, 2005 9:42 am

Hurricane Epsilon Forecast/Advisory Number 29


Statement as of 15:00Z on December 06, 2005



hurricane center located near 31.9n 33.8w at 06/1500z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the south or 185 degrees at 8 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 987 mb
Max sustained winds 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
64 kt....... 0ne 0se 25sw 25nw.
50 kt....... 30ne 30se 40sw 40nw.
34 kt....... 90ne 90se 130sw 130nw.
12 ft seas..300ne 250se 400sw 300nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 31.9n 33.8w at 06/1500z
at 06/1200z center was located near 32.3n 33.7w

forecast valid 07/0000z 30.5n 34.8w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 30se 40sw 40nw.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 130sw 130nw.

Forecast valid 07/1200z 28.9n 36.5w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 0ne 0se 30sw 30nw.
34 kt... 80ne 80se 120sw 120nw.

Forecast valid 08/0000z 27.6n 37.9w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 65ne 65se 80sw 80nw.

Forecast valid 08/1200z 26.4n 39.0w
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 09/1200z 25.0n 40.0w...remnant low
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 10/1200z 23.5n 40.5w...remnant low
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.

Outlook valid 11/1200z...dissipated

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 31.9n 33.8w

next advisory at 06/2100z

forecaster Knabb

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#60 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 06, 2005 9:44 am

Image

THE END IS COMING!
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