Epsilon Advisories

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mtm4319
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#61 Postby mtm4319 » Tue Dec 06, 2005 10:02 am

000
WTNT44 KNHC 061459
TCDAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST TUE DEC 06 2005

EPSILON APPEARS TO STILL BE A HURRICANE... BUT JUST BARELY. A
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT ABOUT 08Z ESTIMATED WINDS AS STRONG AS 55 KT
TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER AND JUST OUTSIDE OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION... SO 65 KT WINDS WERE PROBABLY OCCURRING WITHIN THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. THE CLOUD PATTERN DETERIORATED A LITTLE
UNTIL 12Z WHEN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 55-65 KT. JUST WHEN
I WAS TEMPTED TO REDUCE THE INTENSITY TO 60 KT... EPSILON STARTED
TO AGAIN WRAP SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS OF MODEST DEPTH TIGHTLY AROUND
THE CENTER... SO IT REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE. HOWEVER... THE
OUTFLOW PATTERN IS ELONGATING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITHIN AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD... SO THE SHEAR WILL NOT BE WEAK FOR
TOO MUCH LONGER. EPSILON CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH AT
ABOUT 8 KT... ALTHOUGH RECENTLY THERE IS THE HINT THAT THE EXPECTED
TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IS BEGINNING.

A BUILDING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF EPSILON IS
FORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO FORCE THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. ON
THAT TRACK EPSILON WILL STILL BE BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THAT PERIOD AS THE OUTFLOW BECOMES MORE RESTRICTED. ONCE EPSILON
EMERGES WEST OF THE EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH... STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE A MORE STEADY DECLINE. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY... CALLING FOR EPSILON TO FALL BELOW TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE TRACK OF THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN SINCE SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE IT COULD BE
DRAWN BACK NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT... INSTEAD OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SCENARIO OF A CONTINUED SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 31.9N 33.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 30.5N 34.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 28.9N 36.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 27.6N 37.9W 40 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 26.4N 39.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 25.0N 40.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 10/1200Z 23.5N 40.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED


$$
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#62 Postby P.K. » Tue Dec 06, 2005 3:53 pm

WTNT34 KNHC 062041
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST TUE DEC 06 2005

...EPSILON HANGS ON AS A HURRICANE WHILE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD...


AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 34.5 WEST OR ABOUT 640
MILES...1030 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH... 17
KM/HR. A MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES... 240 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...31.1 N... 34.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#63 Postby Dr. Jonah Rainwater » Tue Dec 06, 2005 4:13 pm

EPSILON HAS SINCE LATE THIS MORNING BEEN MOVING DECIDEDLY TOWARD THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 210/8 WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND WEST. THIS MOTION IS KEEPING EPSILON
BENEATH THE AXIS OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH... SHELTERING THE
CORE OF THE HURRICANE FROM WIND SHEAR. EVEN THOUGH THE OUTFLOW
PATTERN IS GRADUALLY ELONGATING... THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CORE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO HAVE CHANGED TODAY. THE RAGGED EYE IS STILL CLOSED
AND CONVECTION WRAPS ESSENTIALLY ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER WITH
TOPS AS COLD AS ABOUT -60C. THE INTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...
AS DVORAK ESTIMATES STILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KT... BUT I PREFER TO
STAY ON THE HIGH END UNTIL THE SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF A TRUE
WEAKENING TREND.

A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS TO
CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THAT TIME. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
EPSILON IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO ADVANCE
EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SO EPSILON CANNOT STAY
BENEATH IT FOREVER. ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS IS MORE LIKE IT. STRONG
WIND SHEAR INCOMING FROM THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD
INEVITABLY WEAKEN EPSILON. WHILE THE DECLINE OF EPSILON WILL
PROBABLY BE GRADUAL AT BEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO... ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHEAR-INDUCED WEAKENING WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN
SHIPS AND GFDL IN KEEPING EPSILON A TROPICAL STORM FOR LESS THAN 48
HOURS. ASSUMING THAT SCENARIO UNFOLDS... WHAT IS LEFT OF EPSILON
IS NOW FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL THE MODELS TO BECOME INVOLVED IN SOME
WAY WITH A FRONTAL ZONE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS... AND THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE FRONT WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF EPSILON IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. I HESITATE TO MENTION
THAT MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST THIS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM... AFTER
ABSORBING EPSILON... TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH OF 30N ON DAY 5 TO
THE WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. HOWEVER THAT SYSTEM DOES OR DOES
NOT EVOLVE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES EPSILON WILL
ALREADY HAVE MET ITS DEMISE.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 31.1N 34.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 29.9N 35.6W 60 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 28.4N 37.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 27.1N 38.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 26.5N 38.7W 30 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 26.0N 37.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 10/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
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#64 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 06, 2005 9:40 pm

Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 31


Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on December 06, 2005



...Epsilon maintaining strength as it continues southwestward...
At 11 PM AST...0300z...the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located
near latitude 30.3 north... longitude 35.3 west or about 710
miles...1145 km... southwest of the Azores.

Epsilon is moving toward the southwest near 12 mph
...19 km/hr...and a southwest or south-southwest motion is expected
during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Slight weakening is possible during the next 12 hours or
so...but a rapid weakening trend is likely to commence by this time
tomorrow.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles... 65 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 150 miles...240 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb...29.15 inches.

Repeating the 11 PM AST position...30.3 N... 35.3 W. Movement
toward...southwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 75 mph. Minimum central pressure... 987 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 am AST.

Forecaster Franklin

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#65 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 06, 2005 9:40 pm

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 31


Statement as of 10:00 PM EST on December 06, 2005



the end is in sight. It really really is. But in the meantime...
Epsilon continues to maintain hurricane status. Hi-res data from
the 2037z Quikscat pass showed some very reasonable-looking 60 kt
vectors in much of the eyewall...and allowing for the horizontal
resolution of the instrument...it is likely that there are still
some 65 kt winds present in the circulation. Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB are also still 65 kt. Water vapor
imagery...however...shows northwesterly flow beginning to impinge
on and disrupt the outflow to the north of the cyclone. The strong
frontal system that moved off the eastern Seaboard this morning is
sweeping eastward...and very strong upper-level northwesterlies
ahead of this trough are forecast to overtake Epsilon in about 24
hours. The northwesterly upper flow should be strong enough to
shear away the convection...leaving Epsilon as a remnant low to be
absorbed when the surface front arrives in 48 to 72 hours.
The initial motion is 215/10...with steering provided by a deep
layer ridge to the north and west of the cyclone. This general
motion should continue for another 36 hours or so until the cyclone
shears off...at which point the motion is less certain. Steering
currents ahead of the approaching front are likely to be
weaker...so little motion is shown just prior to absorption by the
front. The official forecast is similar to the previous advisory
and is closest to the GFS and FSU superensemble.

Forecaster Franklin


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 07/0300z 30.3n 35.3w 65 kt
12hr VT 07/1200z 29.1n 36.4w 60 kt
24hr VT 08/0000z 27.5n 37.5w 55 kt
36hr VT 08/1200z 26.5n 38.4w 35 kt
48hr VT 09/0000z 26.0n 38.5w 25 kt...remnant low
72hr VT 10/0000z...absorbed by frontal system


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#66 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 06, 2005 9:41 pm

Hurricane Epsilon Forecast/Advisory Number 31


Statement as of 03:00Z on December 07, 2005



hurricane center located near 30.3n 35.3w at 07/0300z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the southwest or 215 degrees at 10 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 987 mb
Max sustained winds 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
64 kt....... 0ne 20se 25sw 35nw.
50 kt....... 40ne 30se 40sw 70nw.
34 kt.......100ne 75se 100sw 130nw.
12 ft seas..300ne 250se 400sw 300nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 30.3n 35.3w at 07/0300z
at 07/0000z center was located near 30.7n 34.9w

forecast valid 07/1200z 29.1n 36.4w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 30se 40sw 50nw.
34 kt... 90ne 75se 90sw 120nw.

Forecast valid 08/0000z 27.5n 37.5w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 30se 30sw 30nw.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 75sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 08/1200z 26.5n 38.4w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 0ne 60se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 09/0000z 26.0n 38.5w...remnant low
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Forecast valid 10/0000z...absorbed by frontal zone

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 30.3n 35.3w

next advisory at 07/0900z

forecaster Franklin

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#67 Postby cjrciadt » Tue Dec 06, 2005 9:42 pm

the end is in sight. It really really is. But in the meantime...
Epsilon continues to maintain hurricane status.
It will happen someday, somehow. :wink: :lol:
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#68 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 06, 2005 9:49 pm

cjrciadt wrote:
the end is in sight. It really really is. But in the meantime...
Epsilon continues to maintain hurricane status.
It will happen someday, somehow. :wink: :lol:


IN THE NEAR FUTURE!!!
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#69 Postby wxmann_91 » Tue Dec 06, 2005 11:56 pm

LOL the discos keep getting more and more hilarious as NHC forecasters begin to plunge into a state of schizophrenia. :D :lol:
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#70 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Dec 07, 2005 12:57 am

This thing is at least going to make Advisorie 40!!!
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#71 Postby P.K. » Wed Dec 07, 2005 3:39 am

WTNT44 KNHC 070832
TCDAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST WED DEC 07 2005

THE END IS IN SIGHT...YES...BUT NOT QUITE YET. I THOUGHT I WAS GOING
TO FIND A WEAKENING SYSTEM AND INSTEAD I FOUND THAT EPSILON IS
STILL A HURRICANE. AS IT HAS DONE EVERY MORNING...
THE CONVECTION
HAS REDEVELOPED AROUND THE LARGE AND DISTINCT EYE....KICKING THE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS BACK UP AGAIN. ALL AGENCIES SUPPORT HURRICANE
INTENSITY. THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN THE REGION OF
LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...
THE WEAKENING PROCESS HAS TO BEGIN VERY SOON SINCE STRONG
HIGH-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SAME TROUGH ARE ALREADY HEADING TOWARD
THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE. WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN...I
HAVE NO OPTION BUT TO FORECAST WEAKENING AT A FAST PACE.
NEVERTHERELESS...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST.


EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...THIS
STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL EPSILON BECOMES
ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 3 DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0900Z 29.8N 36.3W 65 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 28.7N 37.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 08/0600Z 27.7N 38.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 08/1800Z 26.5N 39.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 09/0600Z 26.0N 40.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 10/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
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#72 Postby Dr. Jonah Rainwater » Wed Dec 07, 2005 4:07 am

Poor Avila. :(
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#73 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 07, 2005 9:39 am

401
WTNT34 KNHC 071436
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED DEC 07 2005

...PERSISTENT EPSILON REMAINS A HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY
TOMORROW...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 37.9 WEST OR ABOUT 875
MILES...1410 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH... 24 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A GRADUALLY DECREASING FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND
EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...29.1 N... 37.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB


$$




539
WTNT24 KNHC 071437
TCMAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005
1500Z WED DEC 07 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 37.9W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 110SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 400SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 37.9W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 37.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.8N 38.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 26.4N 39.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.3N 40.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.6N 40.4W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 37.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

FORECASTER KNABB
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#74 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 07, 2005 9:53 am

HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST WED DEC 07 2005

EPSILON IS STILL A BORDERLINE HURRICANE WITH A VERY RAGGED EYE...
AND OUTFLOW THAT REMAINS MOSTLY UNDISTURBED BY THE STRONG WINDS ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD. HI-RES QUIKSCAT
DATA AT 08Z CONTAINED A FEW 60 KT VECTORS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL.
AT 12-KM SPACING THESE VALUES WERE PROBABLY SLIGHT UNDERESTIMATES
OF THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED... ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALWAYS THE QUESTION
OF WHETHER ENOUGH OF THE SIGNAL IS COMING FROM THE OCEAN SURFACE.
THE QUIKSCAT DATA DO SEEM REPRESENTATIVE WHEN CONSIDERING THAT 12Z
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 65 KT... AND AMSU ESTIMATES FROM
09Z AVERAGED TO ABOUT 65 KT. EPSILON CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD RIGHT
ALONG THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...
ABOUT 235/13.

THE SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE AS LONG AS EPSILON PRODUCES
SOME DEEP CONVECTION... ALTHOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY BEND A LITTLE TO
THE SOUTH AND SLOW DOWN AS NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR LIKELY BEGINS TO
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS. THE SHEAR WILL
PROBABLY NOT WEAKEN THE CIRCULATION OF EPSILON QUITE AS FAST AS THE
GFS AND UKMET ARE SUGGESTING... BUT EVEN THE OFTEN SHEAR-RESISTANT
GFDL FORECASTS WEAKENING TO LESS THAN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY 36
HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ANTICIPATES EPSILON
COULD STAY AT OR NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS... FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DECLINE DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVERHEAD ADVANCES EASTWARD. SINCE
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL INTENSITY SOLUTION...
WHICH IS ONLY A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE... THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE GFDL IN ANTICIPATING A
GRADUALLY SLOWING SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OF EPSILON UNTIL IT IS
SHEARED APART. EPSILON IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE BY 48 HOURS INTO
A REMNANT LOW... WHICH SHOULD THEREAFTER BE ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL
ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
BE PASSING TO ITS NORTH.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/1500Z 29.1N 37.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 27.8N 38.8W 60 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 26.4N 39.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 09/0000Z 25.3N 40.3W 30 KT
48HR VT 09/1200Z 24.6N 40.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 10/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM


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#75 Postby P.K. » Wed Dec 07, 2005 3:53 pm

WTNT44 KNHC 072046
TCDAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
4 PM EST WED DEC 07 2005

THE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND THE AIRFORCE CONTINUE TO
CLASSIFY EPSILON AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE..WITH T NUMBERS 3.0-4.0
FROM SAB AND 3.5-4.0 FROM THE AIRFORCE RESPECTIVELY. THIS
CORRESPONDS TO AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65KTS...UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF EPSILON...WITH THE STORM
REMAINING IN A LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC..NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC. EPSILON CONTINUES TO BE STEERED IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...235/13...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE STORM.

THE FORECAST RATIONALE FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE HAS NOT CHANGED
APPRECIABLY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING EPSILON TURNING MORE
TO THE SOUTH IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE STORM AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO EPSILONS WEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. WITH
INCREASING NORTHERLY SHEAR EXPECTED OVER THE STORM...WEAKENING IS
LIKELY...WITH EPSILON FALLING BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH EARLY
THURSDAY. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 TO 48 HOURS.


FORECASTER ORAVEC


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 28.1N 38.1W 65 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 27.2N 39.2W 60 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 25.4N 39.8W 40 KT
36HR VT 09/0600Z 24.5N 40.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 09/1800Z 23.6N 40.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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#76 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Dec 07, 2005 4:18 pm

Looks like the nhc gave up in gived it to some one else! :eek:
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#77 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 07, 2005 9:31 pm

080230
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005
0300Z THU DEC 08 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 39.2W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 300SW 250NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 39.2W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 38.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 26.9N 39.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 75SE 50SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 26.7N 39.8W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 39.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN





KNHC 080231
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST WED DEC 07 2005

...EPSILON BEGINS TO WEAKEN...SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN A DAY OR
TWO...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 39.2 WEST OR ABOUT
995 MILES...1605 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO SLOW CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME EXTREMELY HOSTILE OVER EPSILON
AND RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EPSILON IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...27.8 N... 39.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN





TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST WED DEC 07 2005

THE NORTHWESTERLIES ARRIVED OVER EPSILON THIS AFTERNOON...STRIPPING
THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE CENTER TO THE SOUTHEAST...LEAVING A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. USING A BLEND OF T AND CI
NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT.
WITH EVEN STRONGER NORTHWESTERLIES ON THE WAY...EPSILON WILL DECAY
RAPIDLY...PERHAPS LOSING ALL CONVECTION BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY
THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 230/10. EPSILON WILL BE INCREASINGLY STEERED
BY A SHALLOW-LAYER FLOW AS IT DECAYS...AND THIS FLOW...CURRENTLY
NORTHEASTERLY...WILL WEAKEN AND REVERSE WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL ZONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THE MEDIUM AND SHALLOW
BAM MODELS WITH THE GFS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 27.8N 39.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 26.9N 39.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 26.7N 39.8W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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#78 Postby Scorpion » Wed Dec 07, 2005 9:49 pm

Doesn't seem to have much of a future now.
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#79 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 07, 2005 9:49 pm

So... looks like it's really dying this time. :lol: :roll:
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#80 Postby P.K. » Thu Dec 08, 2005 3:54 am

Barely a TS now (35kts)

WTNT24 KNHC 080840
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005
0900Z THU DEC 08 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 39.6W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 300SW 250NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 39.6W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 39.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.8N 39.7W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.7N 38.9W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 39.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

FORECASTER KNABB
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