Zeta Advisories

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cycloneye
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Zeta Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Dec 30, 2005 11:38 am

WONT41 KNHC 301605
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EST FRI DEC 30 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL STORM ABOUT 1000
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. A SPECIAL ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL STORM ZETA IS IN PREPARATION AND WILL BE ISSUED IN AN HOUR
OR SO.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


One word incredible.First Advisorie Shortly
Last edited by cycloneye on Fri Jan 06, 2006 5:49 pm, edited 32 times in total.
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#2 Postby mf_dolphin » Fri Dec 30, 2005 11:43 am

Unreal! The season that just won't die.....
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#3 Postby wxcrazytwo » Fri Dec 30, 2005 11:53 am

you know what is so funny, is that I was going to post a thread about how luke warm the waters where in that area.

Image
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Fri Dec 30, 2005 12:07 pm

Tropical Storm Zeta Special Forecast/Advisory Number 1


Statement as of 17:00Z on December 30, 2005



tropical storm center located near 25.0n 36.9w at 30/1700z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 7 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1003 mb
Max sustained winds 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
34 kt....... 75ne 75se 0sw 75nw.
12 ft seas..150ne 150se 0sw 75nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 25.0n 36.9w at 30/1700z
at 30/1200z center was located near 24.6n 36.5w

forecast valid 31/0000z 25.5n 37.6w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 50sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 31/1200z 26.0n 38.5w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 50sw 50nw.

Forecast valid 01/0000z 26.0n 40.0w...dissipating
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Forecast valid 01/1200z 26.0n 42.0w...remnant low
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Forecast valid 02/1200z...dissipated

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 25.0n 36.9w

next advisory at 30/2100z

forecaster Franklin










WTNT35 KNHC 301710
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ZETA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM AST FRI DEC 30 2005

...LATE SEASON TROPICAL STORM...THE 27TH OF THE YEAR...FORMS IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 1 PM AST...1700Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 36.9 WEST OR ABOUT 1070
MILES...1720 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. A TURN
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...A
WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1 PM AST POSITION...25.0 N... 36.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri Dec 30, 2005 12:21 pm



WTNT45 KNHC 301720
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
NOON EST FRI DEC 30 2005

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH HAD ITS ORIGINS IN AN OLD
FRONTAL TROUGH...BEGAN DEVELOPING ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
WITH WELL-FORMED CONVECTIVE BANDS NEAR THE CENTER...WEAK
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT...AND TROPICAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...
ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON THE 27TH TROPICAL STORM OF 2005. THE
INTIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE RULE-
CONSTRAINED T2.5 CLASSIFICATIONS AND THE T3.5 DATA T NUMBERS.
WITHIN 24 HOURS...WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHARPLY
OVER THE CYCLONE...SO ZETA PROBABLY HAS A SHORT LIFE AHEAD OF IT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/7...AS ZETA IS MOVING AROUND A MID-LEVEL
LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST. THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS THE
WESTERLIES BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE CYCLONE WITHIN 12-24 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...IF THE SYSTEM WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE SHEAR...IT
SHOULD TURN WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MEDIUM AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS...AND IS
SOMEWHAT SLOWER TO THE WEST THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1700Z 25.0N 36.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 25.5N 37.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 31/1200Z 26.0N 38.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 26.0N 40.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 01/1200Z 26.0N 42.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED


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#6 Postby Swimdude » Fri Dec 30, 2005 1:17 pm

True, the 2005 season seems unstopable... But there's one thing it just can't fight against.

New Years! :lol:
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Fri Dec 30, 2005 3:38 pm

WTNT35 KNHC 302035
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI DEC 30 2005

...LATE-SEASON STORM REMAINS NO THREAT TO LAND...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 37.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1065
MILES...1715 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...25.3 N... 37.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$




682
WTNT25 KNHC 302035
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005
2100Z FRI DEC 30 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 37.3W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 37.3W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 37.0W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 25.6N 38.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.8N 39.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.0N 40.4W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.0N 42.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 37.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#8 Postby cycloneye » Fri Dec 30, 2005 3:40 pm

951
WTNT45 KNHC 302034
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST FRI DEC 30 2005

DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 18Z WERE T3.0...OR 45 KT...FROM TAFB AND
SAB...WHILE AFWA GAVE ZETA A SUBTROPICAL T2.5 CLASSIFICATION.
BASED ON THESE CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
45 KT. THE WELL-DEFINED BANDING STRUCTURES SEEN THIS MORNING HAVE
ALREADY BECOME RAGGED...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
WESTERLIES BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. WHILE THERE COULD BE BRIEF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
DURING TONIGHT'S CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM...STRONG WESTERLIES ARE NOT FAR
FROM THE CYCLONE AND SHOULD OVERTAKE ZETA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/6. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST REASONING. ZETA IS STILL MOVING AROUND A MID-LEVEL LOW TO
ITS SOUTHWEST...BUT THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE
WESTERLIES MOVE IN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. ASSUMING ZETA
WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN SHEAR...IT SHOULD THEN TURN
WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND
OF THE MEDIUM AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS...AND THE 12Z GFDL.

THE HISTORICAL RECORD SHOWS THAT ALICE OFFICIALLY BECAME A TROPICAL
STORM AT 1200 UTC 30 DECEMBER 1954. MY WORKING BEST TRACK FOR ZETA
CURRENTLY SHOWS STORM STATUS BEGINNING AT 1200 UTC THIS MORNING...
WHICH TENTATIVELY ALLOWS ZETA TO TIE ALICE FOR THE LATEST FORMING
TROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. HOWEVER...A CASE CAN BE MADE
FOR CONSIDERING ZETA A TROPICAL STORM AS EARLY AS 0600 UTC THIS
MORNING. WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE FINAL ANALYSIS OF ZETA'S TRACK
TO SEE EXACTLY WHERE ITS FORMATION FALLS RELATIVE TO ALICE'S.

ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE SEEMS TO WANT TO DEVELOP TROPICAL STORMS AD
NAUSEAM...THE CALENDAR WILL SHORTLY PUT AN END TO THE USE OF THE
GREEK ALPHABET TO NAME THEM.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 25.3N 37.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 25.6N 38.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 25.8N 39.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 26.0N 40.4W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 01/1800Z 26.0N 42.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED


Interesting what James Franklin points out about the record of Alice and the formation of Zeta.
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#9 Postby cycloneye » Fri Dec 30, 2005 9:44 pm

953
WTNT25 KNHC 310243
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005
0300Z SAT DEC 31 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 37.5W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......175NE 200SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 175SE 75SW 175NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 37.5W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 37.3W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 26.1N 38.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.2N 39.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.2N 40.3W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.3N 41.6W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 37.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB







TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST FRI DEC 30 2005

...ZETA CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD FAR FROM LAND WITH 50 MPH WINDS...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1035
MILES...1670 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES... 370 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...25.9 N... 37.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB






952
WTNT45 KNHC 310243
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST FRI DEC 30 2005

ZETA IS ROUGHLY HALF OF A TROPICAL STORM... WITH MOST OF THE
CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER... BUT STILL SOME OF IT NEAR THE
FAIRLY TIGHT CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED
FROM SIX HOURS AGO AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35 TO 45 KT.
HI-RES WIND ESTIMATES FROM A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT ABOUT 2015Z WERE
AS STRONG AS ABOUT 45 KT NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER... SO THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KT. THE QUIKSCAT DATA
INDICATED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS FARTHER FROM THE CENTER IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WHILE THE FEW 50-60 KT
VECTORS WERE NOT LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE... 30-40 KT VECTORS WERE
WIDESPREAD IN THE OUTER BANDING EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION. THE WIND RADII IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANTS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ACCORDINGLY.

ZETA IS STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT... BUT A LITTLE
MORE TO THE RIGHT AT ABOUT 320 DEGREES... PRESUMABLY DUE TO THE
ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE PATTERN DRAGGING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER A
LITTLE NORTHWARD. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY DO NOT HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CIRCULATION OR ITS RECENT
MOTION... SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RELIES HEAVILY ON THE
ANTICIPATED STEERING FLOW. THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES FULLY OVERTAKE
AND SIGNIFICANTLY SHEAR THE TROPICAL STORM. ZETA MIGHT HOLD ON TO
TROPICAL STORM STATUS FOR ALMOST ANOTHER 24 HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. AS ZETA WEAKENS IT SHOULD BE STEERED
INCREASINGLY BY THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW
EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE... SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
GRADUALLY BENDS TO THE WEST AS ZETA LIKELY DEGENERATES INTO A
REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0300Z 25.9N 37.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 31/1200Z 26.1N 38.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 26.2N 39.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 26.2N 40.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 02/0000Z 26.3N 41.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

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#10 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Dec 31, 2005 3:46 am

000
WTNT35 KNHC 310828
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT DEC 31 2005

...ZETA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 37.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1040
MILES...1670 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.

ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES
... 325 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
DURING THE PAST HOUR... A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 39 MPH... 63 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...26.0 N... 37.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
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#11 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Dec 31, 2005 3:47 am

000
WTNT45 KNHC 310817
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SAT DEC 31 2005

A BURST OF RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION...WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -70C...
HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. IN FACT... IT APPEARS THAT
A SMALL CDO FEATURE MAY BE FORMING OVER THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER
DEPICTED IN RECENT TRMM AND AMSU MICROWAVE DATA. THE 50-KT INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB. DATA T-NUMBERS USING A CDO
FEATURE SUGGEST THE INTENSITY COULD EVEN BE 55-60 KT... BUT I WOULD
PREFER TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE CDO-LIKE FEATURE PERSISTS FOR AT
LEAST ANOTHER 6 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING THE INTENSITY ANY FURTHER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/04 KT. MICROWAVE IMAGERY DURING
THE PAST 9 HOURS INDICATES ZETA HAS SLOWED ITS NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AS ZETA COMES MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO NORTH... AS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS. THE PRIMARY DILEMMA WITH THE TRACK
FORECAST IS WHEN WILL ZETA WEAKEN AND BECOME VERTICALLY SHALLOW...
AND THEN BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE
BERMUDA RIDGE. SINCE ZETA IS CURRENTLY STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS
THREE RUNS OF THE SHIPS MODEL HAS BEEN FORECASTING... AN ADDITIONAL
12-24 HOURS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE
FORECAST. SINCE THE 00Z GFS MODEL REAMINS POORLY INITIALIZED... THE
OFFICIAL TRACK LEANS CLOSER TO THE GFDL-NOGAPS-UKMET CONSENSUS.

LIKE THE FORECAST TRACK... THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL CURRENTLY SHOWS 45 KT OF
VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM... WHICH IS LIKELY MUCH TOO STRONG
GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. SINCE ZETA IS A RELATIVELY SHALLOW TROPICAL
CYCLONE LIKE ITS PREDECESSORS DELTA AND EPSILON... THE SHIPS SHEAR
CALCULATIONS ARE ALSO PROBABLY TOO HIGH WITH ZETA. SINCE THE 300 MB
FLOW IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE WESTERLY AT ONLY
15-20 KT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS... THEN LESS SHEAR SHOULD
RESULT IN LESS WEAKENING THAN FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL. IT IS
QUITE POSSIBLE THAT ZETA COULD EVEN SURVIVE BEYOND 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0900Z 26.0N 37.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 26.3N 38.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 26.5N 39.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 26.6N 40.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 26.6N 41.7W 30 KT
72HR VT 03/0600Z 27.0N 42.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
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#12 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Dec 31, 2005 3:49 am

000
WTNT25 KNHC 310812
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005
0900Z SAT DEC 31 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 37.7W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE 30SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 80SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 37.7W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 37.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.3N 38.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.5N 39.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.6N 40.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.6N 41.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 27.0N 42.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 37.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
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#13 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sat Dec 31, 2005 9:50 am

000
WTNT35 KNHC 311430
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SAT DEC 31 2005

...ZETA TURNS WESTWARD...REMAINS NO THREAT TO LAND...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 38.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1060
MILES...1710 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
...220 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...25.9 N... 38.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$
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#14 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sat Dec 31, 2005 9:50 am

000
WTNT45 KNHC 311430
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SAT DEC 31 2005

ZETA CONTINUES TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT WESTERLY SHEAR IS
RESTRICTING THIS CONVECTION TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. VISIBLE AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY GIVE THE IMPRESSION THAT THE CENTER COULD BECOME
EXPOSED AT ANY TIME. OVERALL THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS WELL
ORGANIZED AS IT DID AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WHEN AN EYE-LIKE
FEATURE WAS BRIEFLY PRESENT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE 55 AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 50 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO
ESTIMATES. THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT PASS MISSED THE CENTER BUT WAS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO INDICATE THAT THE 34 KT WIND RADII HAVE CONTRACTED.
A SEQUENCE OF OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIP WCBP...WHICH PASSED WITHIN 40
NMI OF THE CENTER BUT NEVER REPORTED WINDS HIGHER THAN 34 KT...
ALSO SUGGEST THAT ZETA PRESENTLY HAS A FAIRLY SMALL WIND FIELD.
ZETA HAS FOUND A RELATIVELY SOFT SPOT BETWEEN STRONG SHEAR TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT STRONGER WESTERLIES LIE AHEAD
AND THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO POUND AWAY AT ZETA. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS THEREFORE ANTICIPATED BUT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER RATE
THAN INDICATED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/4...WHICH IS TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IN FACT THE CENTER COULD BE A LITTLE
SOUTH OF MY ADVISORY POSITION. WEAK RIDGING IS PRESENT IN THE
LOWER- TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE TO THE NORTH OF ZETA...AND THIS
STEERING SHOULD PREDOMINATE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS ZETA BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SHEARED. AFTER THAT...A FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY ABOUT
700 NMI TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF ZETA COULD TURN THE SYSTEM
NORTHWARD...PARTICULARLY IF ZETA HOLDS TOGETHER LONGER THAN
EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...BUT AFTER THAT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW ZETA WILL
RESPOND TO THE APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH. THE GFDL...WHICH
STRENGTHENS ZETA TO A HURRICANE IN THE FACE OF PERSISTENT WESTERLY
SHEAR...TURNS THE SYSTEM SHARPLY NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS AND NOGAPS KEEP A VERY WEAK SYSTEM ON A
WESTERLY OR WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS
THE LATTER SCENARIO...WITH JUST A SLIGHT BEND TO THE RIGHT AS THE
REMNANTS OF ZETA BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 3 DAYS
OR SO.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 25.9N 38.2W 50 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 26.0N 38.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 26.0N 40.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 26.0N 41.1W 30 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 26.3N 42.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 03/1200Z 27.0N 42.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED


$$
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#15 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sat Dec 31, 2005 9:51 am

000
WTNT25 KNHC 311430
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005
1500Z SAT DEC 31 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 38.2W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 30SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 38.2W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 38.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.0N 38.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.0N 40.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.0N 41.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 26.3N 42.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 27.0N 42.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 38.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$
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#16 Postby P.K. » Sat Dec 31, 2005 3:39 pm

WTNT45 KNHC 312030
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2005

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ZETA HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DETERIORATING
DURING THE DAY...WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF WEAKENING CONVECTION. T NUMBERS WERE DOWN FROM ALL
AGENCIES AT 18Z...AT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS NUDGED
DOWNWARD TO 45 KT ON THIS BASIS. WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL
ZETA DISSIPATES OR IS ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING
THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST.

ZETA REMAINS LOCATED SOUTH OF WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE. COUNTERING THIS SLOW WESTWARD STEERING IS THE
CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY...WITH THE RESULT THAT ZETA HAS MOVED LITTLE
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS...A SLOW
WESTWARD MOTION OF THE CENTER SHOULD RESUME IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
UNTIL THE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THAT
POINT THE REMNANTS OF EPSILON WILL LIKELY BE DEFLECTED NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 25.7N 38.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 25.7N 38.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 25.7N 39.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 25.7N 40.7W 30 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 26.0N 41.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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#17 Postby RattleMan » Sat Dec 31, 2005 3:56 pm

P.K. wrote:ZETA REMAINS LOCATED SOUTH OF WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE. COUNTERING THIS SLOW WESTWARD STEERING IS THE
CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY...WITH THE RESULT THAT ZETA HAS MOVED LITTLE
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS...A SLOW
WESTWARD MOTION OF THE CENTER SHOULD RESUME IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
UNTIL THE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THAT
POINT THE REMNANTS OF EPSILON WILL LIKELY BE DEFLECTED NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.


The remnants of Epsilon are still out there? Man, he's more of a fighter than we thought :)
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#18 Postby P.K. » Sat Dec 31, 2005 4:09 pm

LOL - Hadn't noticed that, I'd have thought that was a mistake. :lol:
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#19 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sat Dec 31, 2005 4:27 pm

when I read through the discussion, I read through that part a couple of times. lol

thats what a long hurricane season will do to ya! "heck it's one of those 30. Epsilon, Zeta, same thing" :D
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#20 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Dec 31, 2005 4:30 pm

Yep... I just noticed that in the discussion. It's been a long season.
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