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cycloneye
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#21 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 31, 2005 9:46 pm

WTNT25 KNHC 010245
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005
0300Z SUN JAN 01 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 38.3W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 30SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 60SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 38.3W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 38.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.5N 39.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 25.4N 40.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 25.4N 40.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 25.6N 41.9W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 38.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB





402
WTNT35 KNHC 010251
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SAT DEC 31 2005

...ZETA BARELY MOVING AND STILL PRODUCING 50 MPH WINDS...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 38.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1080
MILES...1740 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

ZETA HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A SLOW
AND ERRATIC MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES... 220 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...25.6 N... 38.3 W.
MOVEMENT...DRIFTING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#22 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 31, 2005 9:58 pm

014
WTNT45 KNHC 010255
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2005

ZETA APPEARED ON THE VERGE OF LOSING ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION A
FEW HOURS AGO... BUT SINCE ABOUT 21Z THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON
SOMEWHAT OF AN INCREASE AGAIN. HOWEVER... THAT CONVECTION IS
LIMITED TO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WIND
SHEAR. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 00Z WERE 2.5 AND THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 45 TO 55 KT. THE AMSU AND QUIKSCAT
OVERPASSES THIS AFTERNOON BOTH MISSED MOST OF THE CIRCULATION... SO
THERE IS NOT MUCH BASIS UPON WHICH TO CHANGE THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WHICH REMAINS 45 KT. ZETA IS STILL BARELY MOVING... BUT IT APPEARS
TO BE DRIFTING WESTWARD.

THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OR REASONING. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HOLDS ON TO A TROPICAL STORM FOR ANOTHER 24
HOURS... LONGER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT WELL BELOW THE GFDL
INTENSITY FORECAST. THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS OVER ZETA ARE NOT
FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO GET MUCH STRONGER DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SO IT IS POSSIBLE ZETA WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL
STORM LONGER THAN FORECAST... BUT GIVEN HOW MUCH IT STRUGGLED
AGAINST THE SHEAR EARLIER TODAY IT COULD ALSO LOSE ITS DEEP
CONVECTION FOR GOOD AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS SLOW AND GENERALLY WESTWARD... PRESUMING THAT SOME
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO... WHICH WOULD ALLOW
THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES TO RETARD THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE EASTERLIES AROUND THE NARROW AND WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ZETA. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS
MIGHT BE PULLED NORTHWARD BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE ATLANTIC.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 25.6N 38.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 25.5N 39.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 25.4N 40.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 25.4N 40.9W 30 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 25.6N 41.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED


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#23 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Dec 31, 2005 10:27 pm

Swimdude wrote:True, the 2005 season seems unstopable... But there's one thing it just can't fight against.

New Years! :lol:


That's true. :lol: :lol:
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Coredesat

#24 Postby Coredesat » Sun Jan 01, 2006 4:05 am

First advisory of 2006:

000
WTNT35 KNHC 010839
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SUN JAN 01 2006

...ZETA CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
...ONLY A THREAT TO SHIPPING INTERESTS...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 38.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1085
MILES...1745 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

ZETA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
...220 KM...MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...25.7 N... 38.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART



000
WTNT45 KNHC 010833
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SUN JAN 01 2006

THE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED EARLIER HAS BEEN ON THE
WANE SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER... SHEAR PATTERN
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT ABOUT 45 KT... AND THAT IS
THE INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT... ALTHOUGH THE CIRRUS
OUTFLOW OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT TO THE
SOUTHWEST... WHICH HAS MADE LOCATING THE CENTER A LITTLE DIFFICULT.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/02 KT... BASED ON AN 18-HR MOTION. ZETA
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE LOCATED EAST-WEST OVER THE AZORES ISLANDS. THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...HOWEVER...IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM A GENERAL
WESTERLY DIRECTION...SO THE OFFSETTING FLOW PATTERNS SHOULD RESULT
IN A SLOW FORWARD SPEED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS MOTION... WHEREAS THE GFDN
AND GFDL MODELS APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS BY TAKING ZETA NORTHWARD
ALONG 44W-46W LONGITUDE AFTER 72 HOURS AS A VERTICALLY DEEP
HURRICANE... WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

ZETA REMAINS CAUGHT IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE DIFLUENT FLOW REGION
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE SOUTH AND THE POLAR JET TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER... SHEAR ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATE 25-30 KT OF
VERTICAL SHEAR... WHICH IS ABOUT 20-25 KT LESS THAN THE SHIPS MODEL
SHEAR ASSESSMENT... IS STILL IMPINGING ON ZETA. THAT MAGNITUDE OF
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO... WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN SHEAR EXPECTED IN THE 24-48 HOUR TIME PERIOD.
HOWEVER... WITH ZETA MOVING INTO A DRIER ENVIRONMENT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD... ANY DECREASE IN THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE
OFFSET BY THE VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. THE RESULT IS THAT GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED... BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE SHIPS MODEL
WHICH IS FORECASTING ZETA TO DISSIPATE IN 36-48 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 25.7N 38.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 25.6N 39.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 25.5N 40.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 25.5N 41.2W 30 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 25.8N 42.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$


Interestingly enough, there are no graphics at all associated with this advisory.
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#25 Postby P.K. » Sun Jan 01, 2006 9:43 am

WTNT45 KNHC 011433
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN JAN 01 2006

WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT ZETA...BUT THIS SHEAR IS
CURRENTLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE STORM. IN FACT...THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED A BIT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF
THE SYSTEM. THE LOW-CLOUD CIRCULATION REMAINS QUITE
VIGOROUS...WITH THE CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE EDGE OF THE DENSE
CONVECTIVE OVERCAST. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB...BASED ON A SHEAR PATTERN... REMAIN AT 45 KT. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS SITUATED IN A REGION OF DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH
STRONGER WINDS TO ITS NORTH AND SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL
DIAGNOSES 45 KT OF SHEAR OVER ZETA...THIS IS LIKELY AN OVERESTIMATE
RESULTING FROM AVERAGING THE FLOW OVER TOO LARGE OF A HORIZONTAL
AREA SURROUNDING THE STORM. NONETHELESS THE GFS 200 MB WIND
FORECAST SHOWS THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD
OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST...WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE SHEAR ON ZETA
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS WEAKENING AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE THAN GIVEN BY SHIPS. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL INTENSIFIES ZETA INTO A
HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS. SUCH A SCENARIO IS BEING REJECTED AT THIS
TIME...SINCE THAT MODEL HAS BEEN KNOWN TO HAVE A POSITIVE INTENSITY
BIAS FOR SYSTEMS IN SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES SHOW THAT THE CENTER HAS SLIPPED A LITTLE TO
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT...240/2. AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS... THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND LOW LEVEL
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE COMPETING FOR THE STEERING OF ZETA.
AS A RESULT...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS IN ANY DIRECTION. A WEAK AND NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF ZETA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MY
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 25.2N 38.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 24.9N 39.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 24.8N 40.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 24.9N 41.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 25.0N 42.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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#26 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 01, 2006 3:29 pm

179
WTNT35 KNHC 012028
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SUN JAN 01 2006

...ZETA MEANDERING OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 38.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1115
MILES...1790 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

ZETA HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT A SLOW
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ZETA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
...220 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...25.0 N... 38.2 W. MOVEMENT
...MEANDERING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$




884
WTNT25 KNHC 012027
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005
2100Z SUN JAN 01 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 38.2W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 160 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 30SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 120SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 38.2W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 38.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 24.7N 39.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 24.5N 40.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 24.4N 41.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 24.4N 42.4W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 38.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

FORECASTER PASCH



605
WTNT45 KNHC 012032
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SUN JAN 01 2006

ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP...ZETA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY HAVE...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...RELAXED
SLIGHTLY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALONG
WITH AMSU ESTIMATES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS...
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CURRENT WIND SPEED OF 45 KT. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE SOON AND
THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WEAKENING. THE SHIPS MODEL...USING THE GFS
OUTPUT...SHOWS VERTICAL SHEAR OF 50 KT ON ZETA WITHIN 12 HOURS.
THIS IS LIKELY AN EXAGGERATION CAUSED BY AVERAGING OVER TOO LARGE
OF A HORIZONTAL AREA AROUND THE STORM AND...POSSIBLY...TOO DEEP OF
A VERTICAL LAYER. THE SHIPS MODEL CALCULATES THE SHEAR FROM THE
850 TO THE 200 MB LEVEL. PHASE SPACE ANALYSES FROM FLORIDA STATE
UNIVERSITY SHOW THAT ZETA HAS A RATHER SHALLOW WARM CORE SO IT MAY
NOT HAVE AS DEEP A VERTICAL EXTENT AS MOST TROPICAL CYCLONES...AND
IT MAY NOT BE AS RESPONSIVE TO SHEAR PRODUCED BY
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC...I.E. NEAR 200 MB...WINDS AS A TYPICAL TROPICAL
STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AS
RAPIDLY AS SHIPS.

ZETA HAS BEEN MEANDERING IN A PARTIAL COUNTERCLOCKWISE LOOP
TODAY...PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROADER-SCALE MID-TROPOSPHERIC
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. ASSUMING THAT THE STORM WEAKENS AS
FORECAST...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO RESPOND MORE TO THE
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WEAK AND NARROW LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE GOES
ALONG WITH THAT IDEA...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 25.0N 38.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 24.7N 39.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 24.5N 40.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 24.4N 41.4W 30 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 24.4N 42.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED


$$
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#27 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 01, 2006 9:37 pm

044
WTNT35 KNHC 020235
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN JAN 01 2006

...ZETA MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH...FORECAST INSISTS ON WEAKENING...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1145
MILES...1845 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH ... 6 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES
...260 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...24.7 N... 38.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$




563
WTNT25 KNHC 020235
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005
0300Z MON JAN 02 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 38.7W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 25SE 25SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 120SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 38.7W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 38.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.6N 39.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...140NE 25SE 25SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.0N 40.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 24.0N 41.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 24.0N 43.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 38.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

FORECASTER AVILA





561
WTNT45 KNHC 020235
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN JAN 01 2006

THIS IS LIKE PREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE EPSILON ALL OVER AGAIN. MOST
OF THE CONVENTIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT ZETA SHOULD HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATED BY NOW...WELL IT IS NOT INDEED...AND ZETA IS PRETTY MUCH
ALIVE AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE IMAGES STILL INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION AND ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP...THE
CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS ORGANIZED WITH AN ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN FACT...THE LATEST QUIKSCAT AND AMSU DATA
SUGGEST THAT ZETA COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS GIVEN IN THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON CONTINUITY AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. ACCORDING
TO THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH DISSIPATES ZETA BY 48 HOURS...THE COOLER
THAN NORMAL 200 MB TEMPERATURE IS THE ONLY PARAMETER CONTRIBUTING
TO THE MAINTENANCE OF THE CYCLONE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL
INSISTS ON MAKING ZETA A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND IT IS
HARD TO GO AGAINST IT. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT AND
DRY AIR HEADING FOR ZETA...I HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO FORECAST
WEAKENING AGAIN AND AGAIN.

ZETA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AT 3 KNOTS AROUND THE
WESTERN CIRCULATION OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS
AND BECOME A SHALLOWER SYSTEM...IT SHOULD BE STEERED SLOWLY
WESTWARD BY THE TRADE WINDS UNTIL DISSIPATION.

MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AS INDICATED BY QUIKSCAT. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 24.7N 38.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 24.6N 39.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 24.0N 40.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 24.0N 41.5W 25 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 24.0N 43.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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#28 Postby P.K. » Mon Jan 02, 2006 5:58 am

WTNT45 KNHC 020830
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST MON JAN 02 2006

ZETA IS HOLDING ITS OWN IN THE FACE OF MODERATE WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
SHEAR. A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -60C HAS
REDEVELOPED NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER... AND THE
OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST
QUIKSCAT AND AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 45
KT... WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A TAFB SHEAR INTENSITY ANALYSIS OF
T3.0/45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/06. NIGHTTIME VISIBLE AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT ZETA MAY HAVE MADE A MORE
WESTWARD TURN DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRONG EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND SURGE AS NOTED IN QUIKSCAT AND
INFRARED SATELLITE DATA. THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS...
STEERING ZETA WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS
AND BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY SHALLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYS1S PRODUCTS INDICATE THE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY
RELAX A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS... WHILE ACCOMPANIED BY A
DECREASE IN THE 200 MB TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT DEEP
CONVECTION MAY REMAIN INTACT A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL
IS INDICATING. HOWEVER... BY 24-36 HOURS... ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE STRENGTH OF
THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS... WHICH SHOULD ACT TO SHEAR
AWAY MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION... AND FINALLY BRING THE
2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON TO A MERCIFUL ENDING. EVEN THE
LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN HAS BACKED OFF ON MAKING ZETA A HURRICANE.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 24.5N 39.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 24.4N 40.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 24.3N 41.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 24.2N 42.8W 25 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 24.2N 44.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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#29 Postby P.K. » Mon Jan 02, 2006 9:52 am

WTNT45 KNHC 021429
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST MON JAN 02 2006

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ZETA'S CENTER IS BECOMING EXPOSED
JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE STORM HAS WEAKENED...HOWEVER A QUIKSCAT
PASS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO SHOWED 35-40 KT WINDS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION. IT IS ASSUMED THAT HIGHER SPEEDS WERE OCCURRING IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS...SO THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS SHOW AN
AREA OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THIS ADDITIONAL BLAST OF WESTERLIES SHOULD CAUSE
WEAKENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES THAT ZETA WILL BE
DISSIPATING WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

VISIBLE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER MOVED A LITTLE MORE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED AND CURRENT MOTION IS
AROUND 240/7. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD
AND THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED MAINLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADEWIND FLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE LATEST...06Z...GFDL RUN IS BACK TO STRENGTHENING ZETA INTO A
HURRICANE IN 2-3 DAYS...HOWEVER THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY TO VERIFY.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 23.6N 40.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 23.3N 41.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 23.0N 42.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 23.0N 43.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 04/1200Z 23.0N 45.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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#30 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 02, 2006 3:29 pm

529
WTNT35 KNHC 022029
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON JAN 02 2006

...ZETA MAINTAINING STRENGTH AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL LIKELY TO
BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 41.1 WEST OR ABOUT 1465
MILES...2360 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ZETA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
...220 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...23.5 N... 41.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH



KNHC 022029
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005
2100Z MON JAN 02 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 41.1W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 60SE 20SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 120SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 41.1W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 40.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.1N 42.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 23.0N 43.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.0N 44.3W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.0N 45.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 41.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

FORECASTER PASCH



636
WTNT45 KNHC 022031
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST MON JAN 02 2006

ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING TREND SEEMED IMMINENT EARLIER TODAY...AS THE
LOW-CLOUD CENTER STARTED TO BECOME EXPOSED...A NEW BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION SUBSEQUENTLY REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER. ZETA HAS THUS
FAR REFUSED TO WEAKEN IN...WHAT APPEARS TO BE...A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CLEARLY WE NEED AN INCREASED UNDERSTANDING OF
INTENSITY CHANGE FOR SYSTEMS IN THE SUBTROPICS SUCH AS
ZETA...EPSILON...VINCE...ETC. NOTWITHSTANDING... GLOBAL MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE EVEN STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE STORM
WITHIN 1-2 DAYS AND IT IS HARD TO CONCEIVE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE FOR VERY LONG IN SUCH A HOSTILE DYNAMICAL
ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE I HAVE NOT BACKED OFF ON THE FORECAST OF
WEAKENING. OF COURSE...ZETA MAY HAVE OTHER IDEAS.

VISIBLE FIXES INDICATE A MOTION NEAR 250/6. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS
IT SHOULD BE STEERED INCREASINGLY BY THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW...AND
MOVE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE
GFS...U.K. MET...NOGAPS...AND SHALLOW BAM SOLUTIONS. THIS IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 23.5N 41.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 23.1N 42.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 23.0N 43.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 23.0N 44.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 04/1800Z 23.0N 45.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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#31 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 02, 2006 9:33 pm

274
WTNT35 KNHC 030230
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON JAN 02 2006

...ZETA STRENGTHENED AGAINST ALL ODDS AND FORECASTS...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1460
MILES...2350 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS STILL FORECAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...23.5 N... 41.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#32 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 02, 2006 9:41 pm

230
WTNT45 KNHC 030232
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST MON JAN 02 2006

ZETA IS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. IT APPEARS THAT EVERY PULSE OF
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT HAS TRIED TO APPROACH ZETA BECOMES
DIVERTED AWAY FROM THE CYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CYCLONE HAS NOT
BECOME SHEARED. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED WESTWARD. BOTH SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE
LATEST SSMI IMAGE SHOW A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION RESEMBLING AN
EYEWALL...BUT NOT QUITE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING INCREASED TO 50
KNOTS AND I COULD GO EVEN HIGHER IF THE LATEST QUIKSCAT IS USED.

A BRAVO FOR THE GFDL. IT HAS BEEN THE ONLY MODEL WHICH HAS KEPT ZETA
ALIVE DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN MAKES
IT A 79-KNOT HURRICANE AS A SHARP UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES THE
HURRICANE. I WAS TEMPTED TO FOLLOW THE GFDL TREND BUT I HESITATED
SINCE I AM NOT READY FOR SUCH AGGRESSIVE FORECAST YET GIVEN THE
APPROACHING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FORECAST BY EVERY OTHER MODEL. ALL
I AM DOING IN THE OFFICIAL FOREAST IS PROLONGING THE LIFE OF A
GRADUALLY WEAKENING ZETA...BASED ON CONTINUITY.

ZETA HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE OR DRIFTING WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. A RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH
ZETA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE SLOWLY
WESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 3 OR 4 DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0300Z 23.5N 41.2W 50 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 23.4N 41.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 23.3N 42.7W 30 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 23.2N 43.8W 25 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 23.5N 45.0W 25 KT
72HR VT 06/0000Z 25.0N 46.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED


Wow what a great amd sometimes humourous discussion from Avila.
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#33 Postby Coredesat » Tue Jan 03, 2006 3:38 am

Winds are now 55 kt:

000
WTNT45 KNHC 030833
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST TUE JAN 03 2006

AT THE CIRRUS LEVEL...ZETA IS NOW EXHIBITING OUTFLOW IN EVERY
QUADRANT WHILE IT MAINTAINS CONVECTION WITH TOPS NEAR -70C.
HOWEVER...THE CENTER IS STILL NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION AS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDERCUTS THE DEVELOPING
OUTFLOW. DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T3.5...OR 55
KT...AND AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM
2039Z LAST EVENING SUPPORTED WINDS THIS STRONG AS WELL.
CONSEQUENTLY THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING ZETA
FROM THE WEST...BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT IN
FORECASTING THIS TROUGH TO SPLIT AND DROP SOUTH OF ZETA. IF THIS
OCCURS...THE WESTERLY SHEAR OVER ZETA COULD LESSEN SUBSTANTIALLY
OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND THE GFDL'S FORECAST OF A HURRICANE
DOESN'T LOOK SO UNREASONABLE ANY MORE. NO KNOWN HURRICANE HAS EVER
FORMED DURING THE MONTH OF JANUARY. I WON'T GO THAT FAR WITH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH I EXPECT THE SHEAR
TO INCREASE AGAIN...AND EVEN THE GFDL WEAKENS ZETA SUBSTANTIALLY BY
DAY 4.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 245/2. ZETA REMAINS SOUTH OF A WEAK MID- TO
LOWER-LEVEL RIDGE...AND THIS RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ZETA MAY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LARGE LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...BUT ONCE AGAIN THIS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SPLIT AND HENCE MAY LEAVE ZETA...OR ITS
REMNANTS...BEHIND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFDL.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0900Z 23.3N 41.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 23.3N 41.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 23.3N 42.9W 55 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 23.5N 43.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 24.3N 44.8W 40 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 27.0N 45.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 07/0600Z 27.5N 45.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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#34 Postby P.K. » Tue Jan 03, 2006 9:39 am

WTNT45 KNHC 031435
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST TUE JAN 03 2006

ZETA'S CENTER APPEARS TO BE PARTIALLY EMBEDDED IN THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.5...
CORRESPONDING TO A 55-KT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. AN SSMIS
IMAGE AT 1116Z DEPICTED AN EYE-LIKE RING...ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE
APPEARED TO BE AT MID-LEVELS AND DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM...AND SO FAR THE STRONG WINDS
IN THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT HAVE NOT HAD MUCH OF A
DISRUPTIVE INFLUENCE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THAT IS CURRENTLY
NEARING ZETA...IS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO SPLIT AND THIS
COULD BRIEFLY CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING
TODAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW NO WEAKENING UNTIL A LITTLE
LATER IN THE PERIOD...WHEN STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TAKING THEIR TOLL ON
ZETA.

EVEN WITH VISIBLE IMAGES...THE CENTER LOCATION IS NOT THAT OBVIOUS
AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 250/4. A
MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK...TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...IS
LIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER A LARGE LOW MOVING FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO TURN ZETA TO THE RIGHT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND LEANS TOWARD THE GFDL TRACK.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 23.0N 42.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 23.0N 42.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 23.0N 43.8W 55 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 23.4N 44.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 24.5N 45.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z 27.5N 46.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 07/1200Z 30.0N 46.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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#35 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Jan 03, 2006 2:35 pm

Here is the 11AM advisory from earlier...

000
WTNT35 KNHC 031429
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE JAN 03 2006

..ZETA MAINTAINING STRENGTH...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 42.1 WEST OR ABOUT 1395
MILES...2250 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH
... 7 KM/HR...AND A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...23.0 N... 42.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$
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#36 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 03, 2006 3:34 pm

802
WTNT25 KNHC 032034
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005
2100Z TUE JAN 03 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 42.4W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 42.4W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 42.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.2N 43.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.4N 44.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.2N 45.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 25.3N 46.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 28.0N 47.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 29.5N 48.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 42.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

FORECASTER PASCH



943
WTNT35 KNHC 032036
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST TUE JAN 03 2006

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 42.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1380
MILES...2220 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...23.2 N... 42.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH




803
WTNT45 KNHC 032034
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST TUE JAN 03 2006

BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND THE
GENERAL APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM ON SATELLITE IMAGES...ZETA HAS NOT
STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN FACT THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE
RAGGED-LOOKING. DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSITY
OF 45 KT. THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PRACTICALLY SUPERIMPOSED
ON THE STORM AT THIS TIME. THIS TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD...AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE IS LIKELY TO
BEGIN TO DISRUPT THE SYSTEM IN 12-24 HOURS. SO...ALTHOUGH YOU'VE
HEARD THIS FROM US BEFORE...WE EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE
TOMORROW.

INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD...270/4. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ZETA
SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEN...A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE RIGHT IS ANTICIPATED IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IF ZETA WEAKENS FASTER THAN INDICATED
HERE...IT WOULD PROBABLY FOLLOW A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IN 3-4 DAYS.


FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 23.2N 42.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 23.2N 43.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 23.4N 44.4W 50 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 24.2N 45.6W 45 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 25.3N 46.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 06/1800Z 28.0N 47.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 07/1800Z 29.5N 48.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

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#37 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 03, 2006 9:31 pm

512
WTNT35 KNHC 040230
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST TUE JAN 03 2006

...TENACIOUS ZETA REFUSES TO WEAKEN...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1355
MILES...2180 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...22.7 N... 42.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$




513
WTNT25 KNHC 040230
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005
0300Z WED JAN 04 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 42.7W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 130SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 42.7W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 42.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.7N 43.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.7N 44.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.0N 46.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 25.5N 46.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 28.5N 48.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 30.5N 51.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 42.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

FORECASTER AVILA



959
WTNT45 KNHC 040231
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST TUE JAN 03 2006

ZETA IS A TENACIOUS CYCLONE AND BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS THE
WINDS ARE AT LEAST 55 KNOTS. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS IMPRESSIVE AND
CONSISTS OF AN AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A
CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OUTFLOW
REMAINS ESTABLISHED AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF STRONG SHEAR. THE
GFDL INSISTS ON MAKING ZETA A HURRICANE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHARP
TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS COULD BE A CASE OF TROUGH INTERACTION
AIDING INTENSIFICATION. I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE GFDL
SOLUTION TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT. IT HAS ALREADY BEAT ME A FEW
TIMES. HOWEVER...FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY ONLY...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST KEEPS ZETA WITH 55 OR 50 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
WITH A WEAKENING THEREAFTER.

ZETA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST OF 250 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS STEERED BY A
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A DAY
OR SO AND THEN A NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD BEGIN AS A STRONGER RIDGE
DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF ZETA. AS THE TROUGH GOES BY...ZETA COULD TURN
BACK TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BUT BY THEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
HAVE BECOME A REMNANT LOW.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 22.7N 42.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 22.7N 43.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 22.7N 44.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 24.0N 46.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 25.5N 46.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 28.5N 48.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 08/0000Z 30.5N 51.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

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#38 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jan 04, 2006 3:37 am

WTNT35 KNHC 040834
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST WED JAN 04 2006

...ZETA MOVES A BIT SOUTHWESTWARD AND MAINTAINS INTENSITY...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.1 WEST OR ABOUT
1325 MILES...2130 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...22.1 N... 43.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN


WTNT45 KNHC 040833
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST WED JAN 04 2006

ZETA CONTINUES TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE TOPS OF -55C TO -60C NEAR THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER....WITH RAGGED OUTER BANDING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. SOME ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW WAS APPARENT IN CIRRUS CLOUD
MOTIONS EARLIER. HOWEVER...THIS HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW
HR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 65 KT AT
TAFB TO 45 KT AT AFWA AND ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM 6 HR AGO.
THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.

ZETA HAS MOVED MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH AND FASTER OVER THE PAST 6-12
HR...LIKELY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 21N38W. HOWEVER...THE LAST FEW IMAGES
SUGGEST A MORE WESTWARD MOTION...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS THUS A
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 220/6. ZETA IS SOUTH OF A MEAN DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHILE A MEAN DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT ARE
CURRENTLY BETWEEN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA...WHILE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SECOND STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AFTER 48 HR. THE NEW TROUGH WILL CAUSE
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NORTH OF ZETA...
WITH THE RIDGE RE-BUILDING IN BETWEEN THE TROUGHS. THIS EVOLUTION
SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48-72
HR...THEN TURN MORE WESTWARD THEREAFTER AS THE RIDGE RE-BUILDS.
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE UKMET WHICH CALLS FOR RECURVATURE ALONG 48W IN 48-72 HR.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE SCENARIO SUGGESTED BY THE
OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND IS SIMILAR TO BUT WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.

ZETA IS WELL EMBEDDED IN UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JET STREAMS...WHICH OVERALL IS NOT A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SERIES OF
UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE FEATURES WILL PASS OVER ZETA DURING THE NEXT
48 HR...MOST NOTABLY THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CURRENT WESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH WHICH SHOULD REACH THE STORM IN ABOUT 36 HR. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE SOME SURGES AND LULLS IN VERTICAL SHEAR...
AND BASED ON THIS THE INTENSITY FORCAST CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING
FOR 48 HR. AFTER THAT...A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF ZETA
SHOULD CAUSE 40-50 KT UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
STORM...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. THEREFORE...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ZETA WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION BY 72 HR
AND DISSIPATING BY 120 HR. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL STILL
WANTS TO MAKE ZETA A HURRICANE...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THE
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRIEFLY PROVIDE A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING IN ABOUT 36 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0900Z 22.1N 43.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 21.9N 43.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 22.4N 45.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 23.9N 46.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 25.5N 46.9W 45 KT
72HR VT 07/0600Z 28.0N 49.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 08/0600Z 30.0N 53.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED


WTNT25 KNHC 040833
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005
0900Z WED JAN 04 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 43.1W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 43.1W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 42.8W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.9N 43.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.4N 45.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.9N 46.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 25.5N 46.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 28.0N 49.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 30.0N 53.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 43.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#39 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jan 04, 2006 9:37 am

TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED JAN 04 2006

...ZETA A LITTLE WEAKER...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1265
MILES...2035 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...21.9 N... 44.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA


TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST WED JAN 04 2006

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION INDICATES THAT ZETA IS NOT AS STRONG AS
IT WAS YESTERDAY BUT STILL HAS A SMALL BUT VIGOROUS CIRCULATION.
THERE IS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THERE ARE
NO SIGNS OF STRONG SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. BASED
ON THE LATEST T-NUMBERS AND QUIKSCAT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KNOTS. PULSES OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ZETA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE UNFAVORABLE
WINDS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/6. ZETA IS BEING
STEERED BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTH. AS AN APPROACHING
STRONG WINTER LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WINTER
LOW WILL PASS BY VERY FAST AND WILL NOT INDUCE RECURVATURE. ZETA AS
A WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD THEN MOVE BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-NORTHWEST UNTIL DISSIPATION. AS YOU CAN SEE...I RAN OUT
THINGS TO SAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 21.9N 44.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 22.0N 44.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 23.0N 46.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 24.5N 47.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 26.0N 48.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 28.0N 51.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 08/1200Z 30.0N 54.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005
1500Z WED JAN 04 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 44.0W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 25SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 44.0W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 43.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.0N 44.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 25SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 23.0N 46.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 25SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 24.5N 47.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 25SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 26.0N 48.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.0N 51.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 30.0N 54.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 44.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA

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#40 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 04, 2006 3:29 pm

475
WTNT35 KNHC 042026
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED JAN 04 2006

...ZETA ON A WEAKENING TREND...IT IS ABOUT TIME...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1200
MILES...1930 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...21.7 N... 45.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$




776
WTNT25 KNHC 042027
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005
2100Z WED JAN 04 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 45.0W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 25SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 100SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 45.0W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 44.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.7N 46.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 25SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.5N 47.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 25.0N 48.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 26.0N 50.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 28.5N 53.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 31.0N 55.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 45.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA


KNHC 042028
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST WED JAN 04 2006

ZETA CONSISTS OF A VERY VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THE
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY VANISHING. THERE ARE A FEW
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER. THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION SUGGESTS
THAT ZETA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE
INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. IT SEEMS THAT FINALLY SHEAR AND
DRY AIR ARE DISRUPTING THE CYCLONE...AND A FASTER WEAKENING TREND
SHOULD BEGIN SOON. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULD LINGER AS A REMNANT
LOW FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

NOW THAT ZETA IS BECOMING A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT WILL PROBABLY BE
STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ZETA SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
AND CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 21.7N 45.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 21.7N 46.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 23.5N 47.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 25.0N 48.5W 25 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 26.0N 50.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 07/1800Z 28.5N 53.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 08/1800Z 31.0N 55.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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