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cycloneye
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#41 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 04, 2006 9:31 pm

103
WTNT35 KNHC 050230
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST WED JAN 04 2006

...ZETA...BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1135
MILES...1830 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDSHAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH... 65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND ZETA IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...21.7 N... 46.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH


$$




132
WTNT25 KNHC 050229
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005
0300Z THU JAN 05 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 46.0W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 100SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 46.0W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 45.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.4N 47.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.9N 48.3W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.2N 49.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.2N 51.2W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 28.0N 55.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 46.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

FORECASTER PASCH




100
WTNT45 KNHC 050230
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST WED JAN 04 2006

A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER ZETA AT 2127 UTC SHOWED A NUMBER OF 35 KT
VECTORS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND EVEN THOUGH THE
CYCLONE HAS PROBABLY SPUN DOWN SOMEWHAT IN THE ENSUING HOURS...I AM
SETTING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 35 KT TO BE ON THE SAFE SIDE.
WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO GET THE BEST OF ZETA...AND
THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD SWIRLY WITH ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ZETA IS LIKELY TO
WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TOMORROW...AND TO A REMNANT
LOW SOON THEREAFTER. THIS REMNANT LOW WILL PROBABLY LINGER OVER
THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE EVENTUALLY LOSING ITS IDENTITY.

AS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...ZETA OR ITS REMNANT WILL PROBABLY BE STEERED
BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
CELL AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS
EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 21.7N 46.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 22.4N 47.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 23.9N 48.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 06/1200Z 25.2N 49.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 07/0000Z 26.2N 51.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 08/0000Z 28.0N 55.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED



Adios Zeta.
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#42 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jan 05, 2006 5:21 am

WTNT35 KNHC 050831
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU JAN 05 2006

...ZETA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.0 WEST OR ABOUT
1075 MILES...1730 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...22.0 N... 47.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN



WTNT25 KNHC 050830
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005
0900Z THU JAN 05 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 47.0W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 100SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 47.0W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 46.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.0N 48.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.3N 49.3W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.4N 50.8W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 26.4N 52.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 28.5N 56.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 47.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

FORECASTER BEVEN



WTNT45 KNHC 050830
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST THU JAN 05 2006

ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW 50 KT OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER ZETA...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
WHILE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6 HR IT IS LOCATED
MORE THAN 80 N MI FROM THE EXPOSED CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 35 KT FROM TAFB...AND 30 KT FROM SAB
AND AFWA. BASED ON THIS...ZETA IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. ZETA IS SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WITH A MEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERING
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALONG 57W-58W NORTH OF 23N MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...AND A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THESE TROUGHS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS WILL
CAUSE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND ALLOW ZETA TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW UNTIL IT DISSIPATES. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION.

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST STRONG SHEAR TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH 40-60 KT NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS LIKELY TO
IMPACT ZETA AFTER THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE
CONTINUED WEAKENING...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ZETA TO
BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HR AND DISSIPATE BY 96
HR. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COULD CAUSE
A CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP AS IT APPROACHES ZETA...BUT ANY SUCH FLARE-UP
OR RESULTING INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0900Z 22.0N 47.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 23.0N 48.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 24.3N 49.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 06/1800Z 25.4N 50.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 07/0600Z 26.4N 52.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 08/0600Z 28.5N 56.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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#43 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 05, 2006 7:28 am

Since probably later today at 10 AM EST or at 4 PM EST the last advisorie will be written on Zeta I will take out the sticky.Adios Zeta.
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#44 Postby P.K. » Thu Jan 05, 2006 9:23 am

cycloneye wrote:Since probably later today at 10 AM EST or at 4 PM EST the last advisorie will be written on Zeta I will take out the sticky.Adios Zeta.


You might want to put it back now. :wink:

WTNT45 KNHC 051416
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST THU JAN 05 2006

A 05/0836Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THAT CAME IN SHORTLY AFTER THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY HAD BEEN ISSUED INDICATED SEVERAL 30-35 KT UNCONTAMINATED
WIND VECTORS NORTH THROUGH EAST OF THE CENTER. SINCE THAT TIME...
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE TO THE EAST OF THE FULLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE 12Z DVORAK SATELLITE SHEAR PATTERN
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM THE TAFB WAS 35 KT... AND
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EVEN CLOSER TO THE CENTER SINCE THAT
ANALYSIS WAS MADE. IN ADDITION... SHIP ZCIH7 LOCATED ABOUT 135 NMI
NORTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED AN EAST WIND OF 30 KT... WHICH MATCHED
UP WELL WITH NEARBY QUIKSCAT WINDS. SO...REGRETFULLY...THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KT AND ZETA IS A TROPICAL STORM
ONCE AGAIN. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 05/0915Z UW-CIMSS
AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 1006 MB AND 38 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/07 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. ZETA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL STORM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS
SATELLITE WIND ANALYSES INDICATE A SHARP MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOCATED ALONG 56W LONGITUDE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT ZETA POLEWARD AND/OR SHEAR THE SYSTEM
APART... LEAVING BEHIND A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 24-36
HOURS. BY 72 HOURS...THE REMNANT LOW MAY EVEN BECOME ABSORBED INTO
A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THE SHIPS MODEL'S 850-200 MB SHEAR OF 68 KT IS NOT THE ACTUAL SHEAR
AFFECTING ZETA. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE 850-300 MB WESTERLY
SHEAR TO ONLY BE AROUND 30-35 KT. AS A RESULT... ZETA MIGHT BE ABLE
TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO
BEFORE THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS VERY HOSTILE MID-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/1500Z 22.4N 47.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 23.3N 48.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 24.3N 49.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 07/0000Z 25.3N 51.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 07/1200Z 26.3N 53.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 08/1200Z 29.0N 56.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED OR ABSORBED
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#45 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 05, 2006 1:34 pm

You might want to put it back now. :wink:


Went off-line for a few hours and dang.It's back with Sticky. :)
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#46 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 05, 2006 3:27 pm

KNHC 052014
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005
2100Z THU JAN 05 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 48.2W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 100SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 48.2W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 47.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.8N 49.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.7N 50.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.7N 52.8W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 27.0N 55.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 31.0N 56.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED OR ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 48.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART


TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU JAN 05 2006

...TENACIOUS ZETA STILL HANGING ON TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 48.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1020
MILES...1640 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
...150 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...23.0 N... 48.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART








WTNT45 KNHC 052013
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST THU JAN 05 2006

ZETA HAS MAINTAINED A NICE TIGHT INNER-CORE CIRCULATION... AND
ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE DATA T-NUMBERS FROM THE
TAFB HAVE BEEN VARYING BETWEEN 30 KT AND 35 KT OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS... AND ODT VALUES HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS T3.0/45 KT. LOW-CLOUD
DRIFT WINDS FROM UW-CIMSS ARE RUNNING AROUND 40 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT
32-KT SURFACE WINDS... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 35
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A
05/1613Z UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 1007 MB AND 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 310/07 KT. ZETA REMAINS ON TRACK
AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A SHARP MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW LOCATED ALONG
53W LONGITUDE AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AT 30 KT. ZETA IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH AND GETS LIFTED NORTHWARD
BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTION
"SHOULD" GET SHEARED AWAY BY 24 HOURS OR SO... LEAVING BEHIND A
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MAY BECOME ABSORBED BY A TRAILING
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 48 HOURS...OR LESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.

JUST ABOUT THE TIME THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO WANE... NEW CONVECTION
REFIRES JUST EAST OF THE CENTER. CONVECTION HAS ALSO BECOME RATHER
ACTIVE TO THE NORTHWEST OF ZETA BETWEEN THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 50W LONGITUDE... INDICATING THAT
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE
FOR IT TO TAP INTO. THEREFORE... ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO... AFTER WHICH STRONG SHEAR BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH "SHOULD" DECAPITATE THE CYCLONE.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 23.0N 48.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 23.8N 49.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 24.7N 50.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 07/0600Z 25.7N 52.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 07/1800Z 27.0N 55.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 08/1800Z 31.0N 56.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED OR ABSORBED

$$

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#47 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 05, 2006 9:42 pm

474
WTNT25 KNHC 060241
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005
0300Z FRI JAN 06 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 48.7W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 75SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 48.7W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 48.4W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.9N 49.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.6N 51.6W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.4N 54.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.0N 56.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 31.5N 57.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 48.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

FORECASTER PASCH


WTNT35 KNHC 060242
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST THU JAN 05 2006

...ZETA STILL A TROPICAL STORM...BUT JUST BARELY...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST OR ABOUT 990
MILES...1595 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND A
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ZETA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
...150 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...23.2 N... 48.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH



972
WTNT45 KNHC 060256
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST THU JAN 05 2006

HIGH-RESOLUTION DATA FROM A 2100 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED MOSTLY
30-KT SPEEDS OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...WITH A SINGLE 35-KT VECTOR
THAT MAY BE IN RAIN. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...30
KT...AND 25 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY. ZETA STILL
HAS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-CLOUD CIRCULATION BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
LIMITED AND RAGGED...MAKING FOR A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE-LOOKING
SYSTEM. I WILL MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...BUT ONE COULD ALSO MAKE A CASE FOR DOWNGRADING THE
SYSTEM TO A DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF VERY STRONG SHEAR AND...ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS AS IF ZETA
WILL NEVER DIE...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAKENING.

A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE WEST
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD PRODUCE A NORTHWESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING CURRENT. INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER 305/6...BUT DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT TO THE RIGHT OF THE
LATEST TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFDL ACCELERATES ZETA
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IN THE LATTER
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT IT SHOWS A STRONGER CYCLONE THAN
WE ARE EXPECTING BY THAT TIME. IT IS MORE REASONABLE TO ASSUME
THAT ZETA WILL BE A WEAKENED SYSTEM...PROBABLY A REMNANT LOW...THAT
WILL BE STEERED BY SHALLOW-LAYER WINDS.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 23.2N 48.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 23.9N 49.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 24.6N 51.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 07/1200Z 25.4N 54.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 08/0000Z 27.0N 56.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 09/0000Z 31.5N 57.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

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#48 Postby P.K. » Fri Jan 06, 2006 3:49 am

WTNT45 KNHC 060832
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST FRI JAN 06 2006

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT ZETA IS BECOMING LESS
ORGANIZED. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BECOME RAGGED AND LESS
CONCENTRATED OVER THE PAST 6-12 HR...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
IS LESS WELL-DEFINED THAN IT WAS 24 HR AGO. FOR NOW...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON A 35 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND A 38 KT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 0446 UTC.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS IS A LITTLE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/6. ZETA IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE A
LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ZETA SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24-36 HR AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD A LITTLE...THEN THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH. ALL
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS MORE OR LESS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THOSE MODELS. THE TRACK IS
A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT
POSITION AND MOTION.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT...AS FORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING
OVER ZETA WITH A LARGE RIDGE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE TROUGH. THE
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD BRING STRONG...AND POSSIBLY SUBSIDENT...
NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER ZETA STARTING IN THE NEXT 6-12 HR.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY...AND BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HR. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN 48-60 HR.
GIVEN THAT ZETA HAS BEEN QUITE TENACIOUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL CALL FOR THE REMNANTS TO LAST A LITTLE LONGER THAN THAT...WITH
DISSIPATION IN 72-96 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0900Z 23.3N 49.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 23.8N 50.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 24.6N 52.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 07/1800Z 26.0N 55.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 08/0600Z 28.5N 57.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 09/0600Z 32.5N 57.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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#49 Postby P.K. » Fri Jan 06, 2006 9:59 am

WTNT45 KNHC 061408
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST FRI JAN 06 2006

ZETA'S CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER DISHEVELED LOOKING THIS
MORNING... WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A SHARP DOWN TURN IN THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES... WHICH ARE NOW ONLY 25-30 KT. REPORTS FROM
NEARBY SHIPS AT 12Z HAVE BEEN 20-25 KT... SO THERE MAY BE SOME
30-KT WINDS LOCATED TO THE EAST IN WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/6. ZETA HAS MADE A SOUTHWESTERLY
JOG DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS... BUT A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY. AFTER 24-46 HOURS... ZETA IS
FORECAST TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF... OR POSSIBLY MERGE WITH... A SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK TO ADJUST FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION... BUT THE
TRACK IS NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS FROM UW-CIMSS
INDICATE A SHARP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
PASSING OVER ZETA MAY HAVE DELIVERED THE KNOCKOUT PUNCH WE HAVE
BEEN ANXIOUSLY WAITING FOR. THE MID-LEVEL AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH IS
ALSO VERY DRY WITH ONLY 18-25 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND VERY DRY AIR
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO...FINALLY...BRING THE 2005
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON TO AN END...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 23.0N 49.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 23.4N 51.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 07/1200Z 24.5N 54.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 08/0000Z 26.4N 56.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 08/1200Z 29.0N 58.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 09/1200Z 33.5N 56.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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#50 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Jan 06, 2006 11:22 am

The 11AM advisory from earlier...

000
WTNT35 KNHC 061413
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI JAN 06 2006

...ZETA WEAKENING AND BECOMING DISORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN WELL AWAY FROM ANY LAND AREAS...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 49.9 WEST OR ABOUT
915 MILES...1475 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
MOTION TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ZETA COULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...23.0 N... 49.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
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#51 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jan 06, 2006 11:48 am

Since the 4 PM EST advisorie for sure will be the last one written I will take out the sticky.Zeta has made history and finnally closes the book on this loooong and tragic for many 2005 season.
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#52 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Jan 06, 2006 3:37 pm

THE 4PM DISCUSSION HAS BEEN POSTED! LISTEN TO THIS...

000
WTNT45 KNHC 062031
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST FRI JAN 06 2006

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND IS NOW LIMITED TO JUST
A FEW SKINNY BANDS OF SHALLOW CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER. AS SUCH... ZETA NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE... WHICH MEANS THAT BOTH IT AND THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE
SEASON HAVE ENDED.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/6. ZETA HAS MADE A JOG BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST... BUT THE AVERAGE MOTION OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS HAS
BEEN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AT ABOUT 06 KT. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF
ZETA IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS... AND TURN NORTHWARD AFTERWARDS
AS THE REMNANT LOW COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. BY 72 HOURS... THE SKELETAL
REMAINS OF ZETA ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED BY THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

I SUPPOSE IT IS ONLY FITTING THAT THE RECORD-BREAKING 2005 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON ENDS WITH A RECORD BREAKING STORM. TODAY... ZETA
SURPASSED 1954 ALICE #2 AS THE LONGEST-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
FORM IN DECEMBER AND CROSS OVER INTO THE NEXT YEAR. ZETA WAS ALSO
THE LONGEST-LIVED JANUARY TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...ZETA
RESULTED IN THE 2005 SEASON HAVING THE LARGEST ACCUMULATED CYCLONE
ENERGY...OR ACE... SURPASSING THE 1950 SEASON. SO... UNTIL THE 2006
SEASON BEGINS... UNLESS ZETA SOMEHOW MAKES AN UNLIKELY MIRACLE
COMEBACK... THIS IS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SIGNING OFF FOR
2005... FINALLY.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 23.4N 50.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 07/0600Z 24.0N 52.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 07/1800Z 25.4N 54.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 08/0600Z 27.8N 56.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 08/1800Z 30.2N 57.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Fri Jan 06, 2006 4:10 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#53 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Jan 06, 2006 3:44 pm

Here is now also the 5PM advisory to follow... yes, the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season is at last over!

000
WTNT35 KNHC 062037
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI JAN 06 2006

...ZETA AND THE RECORD-BREAKING 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
FINALLY COME TO AN END...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 50.3 WEST OR ABOUT
900 MILES...1450 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ZETA IS RAPIDLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... AND
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...23.4 N... 50.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$


ZETA HAS ALSO BEAT ALICE AS THE LONGEST-LASTING JANUARY CYCLONE! THE ATLANTIC SEASON OF 2005 NOW HAS THE MOST ACE NUMBERS OF ANY ATLANTIC SEASON, BEATING 1950!
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Fri Jan 06, 2006 4:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#54 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Jan 06, 2006 3:46 pm

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:
ALL OF THE ADVISORIES ABOVE FROM 4PM AND 5PM SHOULD BE SAVED! THEY ARE EXCELLENT DISCUSSIONS FROM STEWART!
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#55 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jan 06, 2006 5:48 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote::uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:
ALL OF THE ADVISORIES ABOVE FROM 4PM AND 5PM SHOULD BE SAVED! THEY ARE EXCELLENT DISCUSSIONS FROM STEWART!


I saved the last advisorie and what a finish by Stacey Stewart who truly will be missed doing those discussions.
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#56 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jan 06, 2006 5:57 pm

I like the last paragraph of the FINAL discussion from the NHC 4pm Jan 6, 2006....


I SUPPOSE IT IS ONLY FITTING THAT THE RECORD-BREAKING 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON ENDS WITH A RECORD BREAKING STORM. TODAY... ZETA SURPASSED 1954 ALICE #2 AS THE LONGEST-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM IN DECEMBER AND CROSS OVER INTO THE NEXT YEAR. ZETA WAS ALSO THE LONGEST-LIVED JANUARY TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...ZETA RESULTED IN THE 2005 SEASON HAVING THE LARGEST ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...OR ACE... SURPASSING THE 1950 SEASON. SO... UNTIL THE 2006
SEASON BEGINS...UNLESS ZETA SOMEHOW MAKES AN UNLIKELY MIRACLE COMEBACK... THIS IS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SIGNING OFF FOR 2005... FINALLY
.

THE END.

IT'S OVER!!!!!!!

:D
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#57 Postby tronbunny » Fri Jan 06, 2006 7:42 pm

Now that's something to celebrate!!!
:Partytime:
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#58 Postby P.K. » Fri Jan 06, 2006 7:48 pm

boca_chris wrote:..UNLESS ZETA SOMEHOW MAKES AN UNLIKELY MIRACLE COMEBACK... THIS IS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SIGNING OFF FOR 2005... FINALLY.


You never know, it could do..... :lol: :lol: :lol:
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#59 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jan 06, 2006 8:06 pm

ZETA: REST IN PEACE!
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#60 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jan 06, 2006 8:11 pm

:cry:
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