Gaston Advisories

[Tempest]

I know it's amazing to us weather nuts....but there's an awful lot of people here in the greater Charleston area who don't even know this thing is approaching!

My sister in law (40 yrs old and well educated) called me around six o'clock this evening asking me if I knew anything about a storm coming! Then, my daughter called from work saying that no one believed that we were under a Hurricane Warning. We are on the COAST...you would think people would be more aware.

Of course, I must admit I spend WAY too much time watching the sattelite images during the hurricane season...

Catching a lot of folks with their pants down, this one....for sure.

[doglegleft]

mb229... I couldn't cheat on Jimmy D's gal. Fried Oyesters are calling... btw, 10:45pm in Calabash, our sidewalks have been rolled up for hours now. Good Night Mrs. Calabash Wherever You Are... at 31 yrs old I have no idea why I know about that....

[doglegleft]

Never Turn Your Back On The Ocean

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 6

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 28, 2004

A U.S. Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft measured 60 kt
winds at 1500 ft flight level to the southwest of the center and
measured a central pressure of 994 mb and also reported a 35 N mi
diameter eye with some open areas. Both Charleston and Wilmington
radars show an eye-type feature except open to the south. The wind
speed is increased to 55 kt based on the above. With light
vertical shear and warm SSTs...both the SHIPS and GFDL models bring
Gaston to about 65 kt before landfall. The official intensity
forecast follows this guidance.


The initial motion is 330/03 based on recon...radar and satellite
fixes. The track guidance continues the same scenario of a turn
toward the north and then northeast in response to an advancing
short wave trough in the westerlies. The official track forecast
is the same as the previous advisory...except a little faster...
through 24 hours. After 24 hours...the official forecast is
adjusted to the left of the previous advisory and is also faster in
agreement with a consensus of the global track models.


Recon observations show that the radius of 35 kt winds is only about
50 N mi or less in all quadrants. The radii east of the center are
forecast to expand to 75 N mi as Gaston moves northward.


Forecaster Lawrence


forecast positions and Max winds


initial 29/0300z 31.7n 79.2w 55 kt
12hr VT 29/1200z 32.3n 79.5w 65 kt
24hr VT 30/0000z 33.6n 79.7w 55 kt...inland
36hr VT 30/1200z 35.1n 79.0w 30 kt...inland
48hr VT 31/0000z 36.7n 77.0w 30 kt...inland
72hr VT 01/0000z 41.0n 70.0w 30 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 02/0000z 45.0n 59.0w 30 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 03/0000z 47.0n 46.0w 30 kt...extratropical

[deguy50]

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 28, 2004



a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for coastal South Carolina
from the Savannah River to Little River Inlet. A Hurricane Warning
means that hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area
during the next 24 hr.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...a Tropical Storm Warning is issued for
coastal North Carolina from north of Little River Inlet to Surf
City.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for coastal Georgia from
south of the Savannah River to Fernandina Beach Florida.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 31.7 north...longitude 79.2 west or about
90 miles south-southeast of Charleston South Carolina.

Gaston is moving slowly toward the north-northwest near 3 mph. A
turn toward the north is expected in the next 24 hours. On this
track...the center of Gaston is expected to reach the coast of
South Carolina on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are 65 mph with higher gusts. Gaston is
forecast to strengthen and could become a hurricane on Sunday
before reaching the South Carolina coast.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure reported by U.S. Air Force
Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is 994 mb...29.35 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...with
higher levels in bays...is expected near and to the east of where
the center crosses the coast. Tides of 1 to 3 ft above normal are
expected elsewhere in the warned area. Dangerous high surf and rip
currents are also possible along the coast in the warned area.

Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches...with locally higher amounts...
are expected along the path of Gaston.
Isolated tornadoes are possible early Sunday over northeastern South
Carolina.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.7 N... 79.2 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 3 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 65 mph. Minimum central pressure... 994 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Lawrence


$$

[krisj]

No one was talking about it today. It was weird, like Gaston doesn't exist.

[TLHR]

They're talking now.

Gaston expected to come ashore near McClellanville, SC.

[mb229]

doglegleft....Oh my! Panthers score! Panthers score!

ps: while I have liked the Panthers while living in Raleigh I own 2 PSLs for Da Bears

[Cid 98]

Hello, I'm a newbie sitting in Charleston. I enjoying all the posts. Hopefully I'll be able to keep up with things tomorrow if the lights don't go out.

Go Sox!

[cswitwer]

Slowcountry? Oh thank you! I thought I was the only one out here who was outraged by the lack of local weather coverage/competence. Have you found any accurate and timely local radars yet?

This displaced Texan is missing her Future Radar (introduced in Austin by the fabulous Jim Spencer a few years ago)!

[doglegleft]

mb229... what kills me is this only the pre-season... and I still care that we lost.... hehe

I was just thinking... not many people wake up on Sunday and rush to turn on the TV... hopefully the Sunday papers run the appropriate front page mentions.... certainly doesn't need to be alarmist... but at least a wake up call

[Derek Ortt]

Latest sat images show that Gaston once again may be intensifying rapidly. Also, if it moves due north, it will have 6-12 more hours over the water; thus, this has a chance to be more than a cat 1. This should be our focus until it makes landfall. The we should focus on Frances

[WXBUFFJIM]

Definitely agree Derek. My fear prior to landfall and during the overnight is a rapid developer. Those hurricane warnings are very well stated for the South carolina coast, mainly north of Charleston up to Pawleys Island and Myrtle Beach. I'm thinking 85-90 mph at landfall with gusts above category 2 strength. Certainly a force to be reckoned with.

Jim

[TLHR]

I was just about to post something along these lines.
Look at this radar. Clearly an eye is forming.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... &map.y=225

[Brent]

Looks a lot better than just a couple of hours ago.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Those bursts of convection keep wanting to wrap in to the center. Not good news for us in NC/SC

[doglegleft]

how much will / could the landfalling strength of Gaston affect Frances?

I am very new to tropical systems... looking to learn

[BensonTCwatcher]

Look at http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLoca ... odnav=none

Looks a lot more inpressive than 2 hours ago

[TLHR]

Heavy squall line about to rotate into Mt. Pleasant.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... nt%2c%20SC

May have to log off soon and go to bed.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yep, I'm out....But would not be surprised to see some surprised folks tomorrow afternoon near MB and wilmington....

[STORMSURGE]

yep, now that alot of media just realized that there is a Gaston out there also, my opening thread has some bearing