Ivan Advisories

Ivanova · #6861 Postby **Ivanova** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:09 am

CajunMama wrote:
usually they evacuate when the storm enters the gulf

But will there be any Gulf oil facilities for them
to return to when the hurricane has passed :eek:

*

Fire in the Sky · #6862 Postby **Fire in the Sky** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:10 am

I work alot with Oil & Gas interests in GOM, and if this storm goes to the center or up towards the central coast, a good number of rigs will be evacuated. Everything in the Gulf is west of FL (due to drilling restrictions), but there is alot of rigs south of LA, MS, & AL, not to mention TX. The oil companies weren't very concerned about Ivan if he had followed a course like Charley, or hugs the west coast of FL, but once it gets beyond that, it affects everyone.

160 mph & 917 mb is outrageous.. better be hoping that dry air works!

Mark

Possum Trot · #6863 Postby **Possum Trot** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:11 am

Hmmm. Okay tht makes sense. New Orleans is at 13% and Apalachicola is at 13%. I think I'm kinda back to my original question though. Are the edges of the cone always at 13%? If not, how does NHC determine where to put the edges of the cone?

cape_escape · #6864 Postby **cape_escape** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:12 am

Could Ivan really go NE or EAST? And, if so, how soon? Should we keep a heads up down here in SWFL? After what Charley did, I'm concerned!

Sean in New Orleans · #6865 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:14 am

It's my understanding that most of the evacuation has already begun and should be complete by tomorrow or Tuesday, at the latest....production is shutting down for the US from the Central Gulf until Ivan has passed. I'm sure this will have a brief effect on prices in the United States.

camilletider · #6866 Postby **camilletider** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:14 am

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Either the color or black/white IR option will give you an up to date image. NRL is substituting GOES-10 during the eclipse period.

#6867 Postby **TSmith274** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:16 am

The guy that posted said that they were out in the Gulf of Mexico tonight. And that they are getting things ready for Ivan. And then, after battening down the hatches, they're off on helicopters to come home with their families. That's all he said.
So, yes, the rigs are being evacuated now, from what I understand.

Matthew5 · #6868 Postby **Matthew5** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:17 am

It appears that the eye is at least 30 miles in size. Take a look at this from a few hours ago...
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html

What it appears is this storm should be getting stronger?

Sanibel · #6869 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:18 am

I don't think so Cape Escape. That would take an awfully hard turn.

I bugs me that we have an eclipse when a category 5 is about to turn south of us.

This evening you could just see the upper band over the Keys from the beach here...

cape_escape · #6870 Postby **cape_escape** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:22 am

Sanibel wrote:I don't think so Cape Escape. That would take an awfully hard turn.

I bugs me that we have an eclipse when a category 5 is about to turn south of us.

This evening you could just see the upper band over the Keys from the beach here...

Thank you Sanibel! I bet it's beautiful watching the sky from out there! Sanibel is a beautiful place, its a shame what Charley did to it! But, I know it will be back to normal soon and just as beautiful as always!

Lockhart · #6871 Postby **Lockhart** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:22 am

Yes, a cone is a three-dimensional object, of which they are implying their "cone" is a two-dimensional cross-section. A (right) cone is a solid of the form described by the revolution of a right-angled triangle about one of the sides adjacent to the right angle. More generally, any solid having a vertical point and bounded by a surface which is described by a straight line always passing through that vertical point or a solid having a circle for its base and tapering to a point or vertex.

An easier to "get" definition of a cone is a solid with a circular base and sides that taper evenly to a point. Think of an ice cream cone.

ohiostorm · #6872 Postby **ohiostorm** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:23 am

This thing is going to have one huge eye after the EWRC takes place. Wierd to see a CAT 5 system with no eye. I wonder how strong he will get once he gets back together. Remeber, the last 4 I's have been retired!

Javlin · #6873 Postby **Javlin** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:25 am

Population on the whole is roughly say about 350,000 and up for the GC.You go from one city to the next and as outsider never know it.I was in Biloxi during Camille barges on HWY 90 and cargo ships on dry land that had to be cut.This might prove to be another one of those experiences.

Possum Trot · #6874 Postby **Possum Trot** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:25 am

Yeah, If things don't change too much, it looks like cloud bands will be nearly to Melbourne, FL about the time the eye enters the Gulf. That's a long ways.

Sanibel · #6875 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:27 am

The GHCC image is the most impressive I've ever seen with a solid white-top core disc for the ENTIRE HURRICANE about 350 miles-wide. I've never seen an IR image like this!

Sanibel · #6876 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:30 am

This has become an incredible hurricane. I've never seen a solid-white IR disc covering the entire hurricane! It stretches over 350 miles from side to side!

To bed now to see if he hard turns towards us tomorrow...

RonStallcup · #6877 Postby **RonStallcup** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:32 am

It going to be bad.

I fear the long bridges, some three-miles long, will be damaged. This would mean 50-mile plus detours with little gas. The interstate in under major construction.

Storm surge will probably wash over Pensacola Beach, pushing the sand into Santa Rosa Sound.
Watch for the biggest rip current you've ever seen.

Opal Beach meet Ivan.

I've been preparing for days but it's crunch time.

The Pensacola News Journal is on its highest alert.

I'm calm. This hurricane will not break us.

Do not lose your faith....

#6878 Postby **Steve** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:32 am

The Canadian presents an interesting scenario. From the beginning, I didn't think this was a New Orleans storm (MS/AL/WFL). But at some point you have to put yourself on notice of the potential IH landfalling threat where your world could change overnight. I saw about 15 family members today. Most of them were talking about the storm, where to evacuate (if necessary) and who's going with who, provisions, etc. I'm going to take care of gas-ing up tomorrow and try to beat the crowds for ice and batteries. The old lady plans on blowing town with the kids, my dad and my sisters. I'm going to say (sans a 5er) with my house, dog and things. She was speculating all the what ifs (blown out windows, blown up house, etc.). My 3 kids, who all LOVE tropical storms and Cat 1 brush-bys, are scared of Ivan. Most kids nowadays recognize the seriousness of F-5 tornados and Cat-5's hurricanes. I know mine have all been talking with their friends. Missing is the bravado of who's going to stay home and who's jetting for safety.

We've faced Lili, Isidore and Bill over the last two seasons, but I haven't seen people taking a storm this seriously since Georges. I, personally don't think Ivan is a Cat-5 threat at American landfall. But I think it's going to be strong enough that if it hits a population center (New Orleans, Gulfport/Biloxi, Mobile, Pensacola), it has the potential to have the worst impact on the coast since Andrew's two American landfalls in 1992. We'll see.

Steve

CajunMama · #6879 Postby **CajunMama** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:33 am

Oh this is a calming post! lol lafayette is at 92.03W and 30.124N. Think I'll go watch another model! LOL

#6880 Postby **Jupiter** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:33 am

It's a waffle cone....it waffle's back and forth...can't make up it's mind..

Ivan Advisories

For those who did not know-Eclipse alternative

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