Ivan Advisories

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cycloneye
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18:00 Models for TD#9=Low latitud track

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 02, 2004 2:49 pm

FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE (AL092004) ON 20040902 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040902 1800 040903 0600 040903 1800 040904 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.7N 28.3W 9.2N 31.6W 8.9N 34.9W 8.6N 38.2W
BAMM 9.7N 28.3W 9.2N 31.8W 8.7N 35.3W 8.3N 38.6W
A98E 9.7N 28.3W 9.8N 31.8W 9.9N 35.3W 9.7N 38.6W
LBAR 9.7N 28.3W 9.6N 31.8W 9.5N 35.4W 9.5N 39.1W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 50KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040904 1800 040905 1800 040906 1800 040907 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.6N 41.3W 9.0N 47.3W 9.9N 52.6W 11.9N 57.7W
BAMM 8.1N 41.7W 8.7N 47.0W 10.6N 52.2W 13.3N 58.2W
A98E 9.2N 41.6W 9.4N 46.9W 10.0N 51.9W 12.1N 56.7W
LBAR 9.2N 42.9W 8.3N 49.7W 10.6N 53.7W .0N .0W
SHIP 59KTS 72KTS 79KTS 84KTS
DSHP 59KTS 72KTS 79KTS 84KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.7N LONCUR = 28.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 10.0N LONM12 = 24.7W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 21.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Well all who live in the islands will have to watch what Ivan will do in comming days.
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kevin

#2 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 02, 2004 2:51 pm

We get another week break before having to get concerned in the states. Hopefully this doesn't bring too much bad weather to the islands!

enough is enough
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#3 Postby yoda » Thu Sep 02, 2004 2:51 pm

Correct Luis...

84 kts in 120 hrs.? 84 kts = 95 mph... a CAT 2 in 5 days?

Here we go again...

(That's IF the SHIPS/DSHP are correct)
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 02, 2004 2:58 pm

Image
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#5 Postby OtherHD » Thu Sep 02, 2004 2:59 pm

What is the link to those models?
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#6 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 02, 2004 3:10 pm

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#7 Postby OtherHD » Thu Sep 02, 2004 3:12 pm

Thanks, duh, that was something I should have known lol
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#8 Postby yoda » Thu Sep 02, 2004 3:14 pm

Here we go again.. could Ivan do the same thing as Frances? Hmmm... but that UKMET run looks nice, cause it would spare the islands...
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#9 Postby *StOrmsPr* » Thu Sep 02, 2004 3:21 pm

Image[/url]
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TD 9 Track

#10 Postby lilbump3000 » Thu Sep 02, 2004 3:39 pm

Image



If this track holds true, then the US might be in for it again. WAY WAY WAY to early to tell but its not looking good.
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First advisory on TD#9

#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 02, 2004 3:43 pm

WTNT34 KNHC 022031
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004

...NINTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 29.1 WEST OR ABOUT 555
MILES... 890 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION... 9.7 N... 29.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH

A threat to the islands in the long range.
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#12 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 02, 2004 3:43 pm

:eek:
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#neversummer

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#13 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 02, 2004 3:45 pm

TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004

ALTHOUGH FRANCES CONTINUES TO HAVE A GOOD SATELLITE REPRESENTATION
... DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 948 MB AND THE EYEWALL IS CURRENTLY
DISRUPTED. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 120 KNOTS. THIS
IS PROBABLY A MINOR FLUCTUATION ASSOCIATED WITH INNER CORE
PROCESSES AND FRANCES COULD EASILY RE-INTENSIFY. NEVERTHELESS...
FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE UNTIL LANDFALL.

FRANCES HAS BEEN WOBBLING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE OVERALL
MOTION APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9
KNOTS. THE CURRENT STEERING PATTERN OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...FORCING FRANCES
TO MOVE BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND UNTIL LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST. ALL TRACK MODELS INCLUDING THE GFDL AND THE GFS ARE NOW
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
DESPITE THE HIGH CONFIDENCE...IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT THE EXACT
LOCATION OF WHERE THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE.

AT THIS TIME...CHANGES IN THE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE NOT
NECESSARY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 24.1N 74.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 24.9N 76.2W 120 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 26.0N 77.8W 120 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 27.0N 79.5W 115 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 27.7N 80.5W 90 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 05/1800Z 28.5N 83.0W 45 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 06/1800Z 31.0N 85.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/1800Z 34.5N 87.5W 25 KT...INLAND
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#14 Postby wlfpack81 » Thu Sep 02, 2004 3:45 pm

Yea when I saw where this storm was lat wise I was thinking this could be a Carribean to Gulf storm. Being so low if it did turn up towards FL/SE coast it'd have to cross PR, DR, or at least Cuba. We'll definitely have to watch this to see where it goes.
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#15 Postby Portastorm » Thu Sep 02, 2004 3:55 pm

When all is said and done, I think us GOMers are going to be REAL interested in soon-to-be "Ivan the Terrible."
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#16 Postby opera ghost » Thu Sep 02, 2004 3:55 pm

Because... ya know... hurricane season just hasn't been INTERESTING enough in the GOM.... !@!$#!#$#@$%

That's it- I want a fast forward to December... PRONTO!
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#17 Postby NJCane » Thu Sep 02, 2004 3:56 pm

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#18 Postby lilbump3000 » Thu Sep 02, 2004 4:01 pm

This will most likely be a player for the US for the upcoming week of the 12-18.
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dennis1x1

#19 Postby dennis1x1 » Thu Sep 02, 2004 4:10 pm

let me be the first to say....this will definitely be a cat 5 storm...will level miami then cross into the gulf and level new orleans.


but arent they all?
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golter

#20 Postby golter » Thu Sep 02, 2004 4:13 pm

Dennis1x1...finally a forecast that is based solely on spite. LOL
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