Ivan Advisories

WeatherNLU · #6921 Postby **WeatherNLU** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:07 am

SwampDawg wrote:How long does this usually last??

If you are talking about the eclipse, it lasts until 0645Z, which is 1:45AM CDT or 2:45AM EDT.

SwampDawg · #6922 Postby **SwampDawg** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:08 am

Thanks...that's what I was currious about

Possum Trot · #6923 Postby **Possum Trot** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:08 am

Lockhart wrote:Yes, a cone is a three-dimensional object, of which they are implying their "cone" is a two-dimensional cross-section. A (right) cone is a solid of the form described by the revolution of a right-angled triangle about one of the sides adjacent to the right angle. More generally, any solid having a vertical point and bounded by a surface which is described by a straight line always passing through that vertical point or a solid having a circle for its base and tapering to a point or vertex.

That sounds vaguely familiar. I think I'm having a deja vu experience. I'm kidding around, thanks for the reminder of the definition of a cone.

Website · #6924 Postby **FritzPaul** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:08 am

Here in NO there is a line of strong storms approaching us from the east.

dennis1x1 · #6925 Postby **dennis1x1** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:09 am

Since the winds are falling and the pressure is going up, does this mean the cane is weakening. So this is a good sign right.

most likely temporary....but yes..it has weakened in the last 6 hours or so.......it may be good news to those in far west cuba....as for the US...this phase has no bearing on anything when it comes to future intensity.

yoda · #6926 Postby **yoda** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:09 am

Welcome to Hurricane Math 101, taught by me. Today, we will learn about 2d objects, cones, and other things... :eek:

Possum Trot · #6927 Postby **Possum Trot** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:10 am

So back to the earlier question. How does the NHC detrermine how broad to make the "cone" on the forecast map?

yoda · #6928 Postby **yoda** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:11 am

Possum Trot wrote:So back to the earlier question. How does the NHC detrermine how broad to make the "cone" on the forecast map?

IMO, they usually do it by the models and their ensembles. Some of them are so wrong that they throw them out.... I really don't know, I am guessing here.

#6929 Postby **Pebbles** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:15 am

I really applaud your attempt....but is there any way you can break that down into paragraphs? I so tired that I gave up trying to finish it cause my eyes kept crossing! LOL

dennis1x1 · #6930 Postby **dennis1x1** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:19 am

good analysis......here is a less distributed link to a nhc intensity forecast product....notice that the official landfall intensity is way on the high end of probability.....it has definitely picked up on the shear forecasts.....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 30253I.gif

StrongWind · #6931 Postby **StrongWind** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:25 am

Wedge perhaps? But in Ivan's case, a semi-circle might be more appropriate!

PTrackerLA · #6932 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:37 am

Ixolib wrote:Yes PT... It's like they are quite willing to update the graphics for strike probability, but are waiting on an act of congress to update (adjust??) the forcast track. Hmmmmm......

Hey wait that's my nickname :lol:

. Anyway I expect the cone to shift even further into Louisiana by Monday afternoon. NHC needs to get with the program and at least shift their track to a Biloxi/Mobile vicinity.

#6933 Postby **MS GulfCoast** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:43 am

Well looks like the shutters might be coming out of storage. House had about 3 feet of water with Camille and lots of damage but the in-laws road it out. Not me. I will be out of here if told to go. Button things up and come back when it is over.

#6934 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:50 am

mobilebay wrote:Looks like DESTIN to New Orleans now wiith the new models.

your safe than...nuff said. neone that thiks thay have a good track is nuts.

WeatherNLU · #6935 Postby **WeatherNLU** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:00 am

Well Ivan still looks very good after the 3 hour lapse. The band of dark red convection is wrapped all the way around the center still. Looks like he has finally made it north of 20N.

Website · #6936 Postby **FritzPaul** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:01 am

Must use spellchecker... Must use speeelchackar

Oh well, nevermind.

dennis1x1 · #6937 Postby **dennis1x1** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:02 am

can see outline of new eyewall in wv shot......pressures should begin to fall as he is looking very healthy.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/trop ... N-835W.jpg

WeatherNLU · #6938 Postby **WeatherNLU** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:03 am

dennis1x1 wrote:can see outline of new eyewall in wv shot......pressures should begin to fall as he is looking very healthy.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/trop ... N-835W.jpg

Indeed, looking very healthy. I know the pressure is up slighty, but he sure looks the CAT 5 part.

#6939 Postby **ericinmia** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:10 am

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/
-Eric

calidoug · #6940 Postby **calidoug** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:18 am

Besides the eye clearing out, there's another interesting feature of the WV loop:

While the eye has remained WNW around 300 or so, the outflow has made a great deal of N progress (look at the Florida peninsula), and hardly any W progress.

Perhaps this indicates more ridging to the W of the storm than to the N...or it might be simply that the outflow jet is better established out to the NE...

Ivan Advisories

Re: 00Z GFDL dead on MOBILE

Out of the eclipse

New Euro still on New Orleans...

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