Ivan Advisories

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM IVAN (AL092004) ON 20040903 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040903 1200 040904 0000 040904 1200 040905 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.6N 32.0W 9.2N 35.3W 8.9N 38.5W 8.6N 41.5W
BAMM 9.6N 32.0W 9.2N 35.8W 8.7N 39.4W 8.2N 42.9W
A98E 9.6N 32.0W 9.0N 35.4W 8.8N 38.8W 9.0N 42.1W
LBAR 9.6N 32.0W 9.2N 35.3W 8.8N 38.8W 8.4N 42.3W
SHIP 40KTS 53KTS 63KTS 71KTS
DSHP 40KTS 53KTS 63KTS 71KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040905 1200 040906 1200 040907 1200 040908 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.7N 44.6W 9.4N 50.8W 10.5N 57.0W 12.6N 62.2W
BAMM 7.9N 46.3W 8.0N 53.0W 8.9N 59.2W 10.8N 65.1W
A98E 9.1N 45.1W 10.0N 50.8W 10.9N 55.8W 12.5N 60.5W
LBAR 8.0N 46.1W 7.3N 53.4W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 77KTS 83KTS 80KTS 79KTS
DSHP 77KTS 83KTS 80KTS 79KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.6N LONCUR = 32.0W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 9.7N LONM12 = 28.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 9.7N LONM24 = 26.5W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 50NM

A low latitud track for Ivan.

[Hurricanehink]

Uh-oh for this one...

[canegrl04]

Florida/GOM look out for Ivan The Terrible

[Stormcenter]

Florida/GOM look out for Ivan The Terrible

This one has GOM written all over it for next
weekend.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html


wish this season from hell would end already

[NJCane]

Eastern Gulf if it gets into there, looks like a huge trough will be dropping in.

[cycloneye]

This will be the big one for the islands this 2004 season wthout any doubt.

[Derek Ortt]

and if I had the 12Z GFD models, I may have wnt even higher. The last mjor for the Windwards was Allen, all the way back in 1980

[HURAKAN]

To summarize all, after we finish this frustrating coverage with *slow motion-Frances*, then we have to turn our attention to a catastrophic hurricane nearing the Lesser Antilles. This season is like trying to breath under water, impossible.

[Guest]

To summarize all, after we finish this frustrating coverage with *slow motion-Frances*, then we have to turn our attention to a catastrophic hurricane nearing the Lesser Antilles. This season is like trying to breath under water, impossible.

Wow. Great metaphor...so true!!!

[cycloneye]

***
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
1500Z FRI SEP 03 2004

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 32.9W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 32.9W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 32.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 9.7N 35.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 10.0N 38.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 10.3N 42.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 10.5N 45.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 11.5N 51.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 13.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 14.5N 63.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.6N 32.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

FORECASTER PASCH


$$


If nothing appears above but an error message, no current WTNT24 data were found.
** WTNT34 KNHC 031437 ***
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2004

...IVAN GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 9.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.9 WEST OR ABOUT 745
MILES...1200 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION... 9.6 N... 32.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

They forecast a cat 2 cane entering the islands but they may be a bit conservative I fear .

[Canelaw99]

* ding, ding, ding * And now, entering the ring at about 45 mph is Ivan....

SE Coast & islands get ready for round 2, or 3, or whatever number we're on at this point

[opera ghost]

Christmas! I'm going to start singing Christmas carols and maybe go set up the christmas tree... maybe the tropics will get the picture and lay off for the year.

This is insane.

[cycloneye]

Discussion:



Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 03, 2004


The cloud pattern is gradually becoming better organized with some
banding features...and current intensity is set to 40 kt...about the
average of the Dvorak estimates from TAFB...SAB...and AFWA. There
is modest northeasterly shear over the system...but this is not
likely to be much of a hinderance to strengthening. Therefore the
official forecast calls for steady intensification.

Initial motion estimate for this package is a little faster...
260/16. There has been no change to the steering pattern. Ivan is
embedded in a well-defined easterly current to the south of a
strong high pressure area. Global models indicate that this regime
will persist for the next several days. The official track
forecast is only a little to the south of the previous one...and
very close to the GUNA consensus. The GFS and GFDL tracks are
significantly farther to the south.

Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 03/1500z 9.6n 32.9w 40 kt
12hr VT 04/0000z 9.7n 35.5w 50 kt
24hr VT 04/1200z 10.0n 38.7w 55 kt
36hr VT 05/0000z 10.3n 42.0w 60 kt
48hr VT 05/1200z 10.5n 45.0w 65 kt
72hr VT 06/1200z 11.5n 51.0w 70 kt
96hr VT 07/1200z 13.0n 57.0w 80 kt
120hr VT 08/1200z 14.5n 63.0w 90 kt

[cycloneye]

I think that the NHC is a little conservative in the intensity for Ivan because the sat presentation is excellent and all conditions are favoreble to bomb rapidly.I fear that the lesser antilles islands will see a major cane but that ia speculation on my part about intensity.

[KatDaddy]

Any while all the action is away from the GOM.........always watch for homegrown GOM storms. The W and Central GOM is way way to quite this year..............ominious indeed.

[HURAKAN]

Really nice signature ......

[x-y-no]

I think that the NHC is a little conservative in the intensity for Ivan because the sat presentation is excellent and all conditions are favoreble to bomb rapidly.I fear that the lesser antilles islands will see a major cane but that ia speculation on my part about intensity.

Yeah, but it's forecast to move west by south, and it's already south of 10N ...

How much further south can it move and still intensify?

[cycloneye]

Wow impressive that quickScat.

[x-y-no]

Wow ... that's a pretty darn good looking circulation there ...