Ivan Advisories

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gulfcoaster53
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#7001 Postby gulfcoaster53 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:15 am

Looks to me like the last couple of frames are showing an almost due north jog. Probably a wobble, but NW quadrant still flattening. Check out the dry air digging over SE Louisiana. Can someone explain if this is part of the existing forecast? Last few hours seem to be showing a slowing and if the troughiness over LA is still going SE, isn't this contrary to what we've been seeing since yesterday PM?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#7002 Postby snowflake » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:16 am

My brother in law is already being evacuated.
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cycloneye
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New Vortex=919mbs,153kt NW QUAD,open south,C30 miles

#7003 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:27 am

Code: Select all

URNT12 KNHC 131012
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/1012Z
B. 20 DEG 13 MIN N
   83 DEG 54 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2368 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 118 DEG 151 KT
G. 030 DEG 18 NM
H. 919 MB
I. 9 C/ 3087 M
J. 17 C/ 3068 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. OPEN SOUTH
M. C30
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF866 2809A IVAN OB 13
   MAX FL WIND 153 KT NW QUAD 0827Z. MAX FL TEMP 19 C 225/10NM
   FROM FL CNTR.

Another ERC going on now.
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#7004 Postby cloud_galaxy » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:32 am

Looks like it's still going WNW. I wonder when it will turn northward?
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TampaFl
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#7005 Postby TampaFl » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:33 am

Agree Gulfcoaster53. I noticed the digging throf into SE La. also. I do not think it was part of the 5:00AM package. I would think that this trof might pull Ivan a little more norwestward and north, but looking at the stronger trof moving through the western US towards the Central US, http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... op-12.html, this may pick Ivan up & move him more into the Eastern Gulf or turn him more to the northeast later in the week. http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... op-12.html

Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert 8-)
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gulfcoaster53
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#7006 Postby gulfcoaster53 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:42 am

cycloneye!

Do you make anything of this? What about the dry air moving down from LA? Last 3 frames are almost due north. Know that's not enough for a trend but I haven't seen ANY movement in this direction until now. Is this dry air part of the current synoptic pattern/forecast? Thanks.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#7007 Postby canegrl04 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:42 am

Ivan getting ready for another strengthning phase :eek:
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caneman

#7008 Postby caneman » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:42 am

TampaFl wrote:Agree Gulfcoaster53. I noticed the digging throf into SE La. also. I do not think it was part of the 5:00AM package. I would think that this trof might pull Ivan a little more norwestward and north, but looking at the stronger trof moving through the western US towards the Central US, http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... op-12.html, this may pick Ivan up & move him more into the Eastern Gulf or turn him more to the northeast later in the week. http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... op-12.html

Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert 8-)


Agree with both of you as well. I too have been following it. Looks to have only move .1 North and .1 West in more than 2 hours which of course is NW. If this verifies that would be a MAJOR SLOW DOWN! Need to watch closely here on the West coast of Florida.
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Derek Ortt

#7009 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:44 am

the eye has not shifted its track at all. still going wnw near 10 m.p.h.
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gulfcoaster53
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#7010 Postby gulfcoaster53 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:46 am

Any thoughts on the dry air coming in from LA, Derek?
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cloud_galaxy
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#7011 Postby cloud_galaxy » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:46 am

gulfcoaster53 wrote: Last 3 frames are almost due north. Know that's not enough for a trend but I haven't seen ANY movement in this direction until now.


To me it looks like it's just the small eye turning inside the bigger one. The big eye looks like it's still going WNW to me.
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cycloneye
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See the 8 AM advisory at sticky thread above

#7012 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:51 am

Go there and look at the latest on cat 5 Ivan.
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Windtalker
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#7013 Postby Windtalker » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:52 am

As fast as the track changed to the West, it can change just as fast back to the EAST.....with a strong trough coming into the gulf by Wed morning, all bets are off with the path of Ivan come Wednesday morning.
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caneman

#7014 Postby caneman » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:52 am

Derek Ortt wrote:the eye has not shifted its track at all. still going wnw near 10 m.p.h.


The 8:00 advisory doesn't agree with you it is at 20.4 84.1 which is .2 North and .2 West. If this continues by the 11:00 Discussion we should see a NW motion indicated.
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#7015 Postby HurryKane » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:54 am

Windtalker wrote:As fast as the track changed to the West, it can change just as fast back to the EAST.....with a strong trough coming into the gulf by Wed morning, all bets are off with the path of Ivan come Wednesday morning.


Is it that strong though? I keep hearing that it's either weak, or going to lift out early, or both.
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caneman

Re: See the 8 AM advisory at sticky thread above

#7016 Postby caneman » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:54 am

cycloneye wrote:Go there and look at the latest on cat 5 Ivan.


This is .2 North and .2 West from 5:00. This is NW. Lets see if it holds by 11:00 discussion. Also looks slower.
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Shullate
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Re: see the big eye

#7017 Postby Shullate » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:57 am

charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:yea i noticed it was still smiling too...


Image
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#7018 Postby cape_escape » Mon Sep 13, 2004 7:01 am

I really hope Ivan weakens before he makes landfall anywhere! My prayers are with all of you! It's a horrible feeling being stuck in a cone, let alone one like this!
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#7019 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Sep 13, 2004 7:02 am

This is funny, a thread to point out a post in a thread above!!

LOL!!!! :lol: :lol: :lol:
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caneman

#7020 Postby caneman » Mon Sep 13, 2004 7:07 am

Furthermore, by simple extrapolation it will never meet the 12 hour coordiantes based on the 5:00 discussion. I believe there has been a slow down. We'll see.
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