Earl Advisories

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HURAKAN
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#681 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 16, 2004 5:28 pm

That's a "BIG IF".
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#682 Postby Air Force Met » Mon Aug 16, 2004 5:43 pm

Brent wrote:There is a spin at 15 N. I think it's an MLC though. It's exposed on the western edge of the convection.


If you are talking about the one at 15N / 74 - 72 west...that is a low level vort max. The IR temps for that area are b/w 10C and 13C...which is consistent with low level cu with tops b/w 8,000-10,000 feet. If this was a mid-level swirl, the IR temps would be in the 0C - -10C range.
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#683 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 16, 2004 5:43 pm

see my 2nd post. I was too lazy to look at a recent sat prior to making post one, lol
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#684 Postby Air Force Met » Mon Aug 16, 2004 5:50 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:see my 2nd post. I was too lazy to look at a recent sat prior to making post one, lol


Gotcha. I don't think it will slow down though. It's pretty much under the weakness in the ridge (which is very slight) and still to the east of the high in the eastern GOM. Once it completely passes the ridge weakness...it then begins to get steered by the high in the eastern GOM...through 48 hours. At that point (after it passes the weakness and gets under the eastern GOM high), it has no choice but to speed up as the gradient increases.

So...given the fact that the high will be in the eastern GOM...and it has to pass under it...I don't see how it can slow down much. It can't start to slow until it passes the ridge axis.
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#685 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 16, 2004 5:52 pm

Earl sucks. :grr:
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#686 Postby Air Force Met » Mon Aug 16, 2004 6:08 pm

Brent wrote:Earl sucks. :grr:


Now we know why the Dixie Chicks wanted to kill him.

Goodbye to earl!
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#687 Postby dhweather » Mon Aug 16, 2004 7:14 pm

Earl had to die............
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earl

#688 Postby Patrick99 » Mon Aug 16, 2004 7:22 pm

I'm betting Earl is toast for good. Wouldn't surprise me to wake up tomorrow morning and see little or no convection.
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#689 Postby ~SirCane » Mon Aug 16, 2004 8:09 pm

He'll probably form again- in the Gulf. Just like Bonnie.
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If Earl slows down and regenerates, it will be between 75W

#690 Postby chrisnnavarre » Mon Aug 16, 2004 8:11 pm

and 77W...there seems to be some outflow to the NE right now...and once again the signs of convection build-up at 15N-75W. If stops dead in his tracks I think he may start drifting NW once he's south of Jamaica. I'd be willing to bet there's been a weak LLC tucked away in there somewhere all day. Could be wrong, but the next few hours will tell the tell.
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Same old story with Earl tonight

#691 Postby Frank P » Mon Aug 16, 2004 8:35 pm

Convection back on the rise tonight with Earl.... looks to be developing in the general area of what should be Earl's center of circulation, be it an LLC or MLC.... best guess looking at the IR loops is 15.0N and 75.6W... same thing happened about the same time as last night but last night looked a little more impressive, but its still early... nocturnal effects taking action again... at least he's consistent thus far.... Looks to be a weak upper level just to the west of the former tropical storm know as Earl... system still moving towards the west or perhaps just north of due west
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Earl does not have much time

#692 Postby corpusbreeze » Mon Aug 16, 2004 8:41 pm

If he does not get his act together quickly he will plow right into Central America. I am starting to think that is what is going to happen. Oh well, dodged another one.
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#693 Postby PurdueWx80 » Mon Aug 16, 2004 8:45 pm

I just noticed that upper level low to the southwest of Cuba also. It seems to extend up towards Cuba, where there is also an apparent weakness in the ridge. It won't have much time to pull Earl's remains to the NW before hitting central America though.
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#694 Postby LaBreeze » Mon Aug 16, 2004 8:55 pm

That's what a local met here said at 6:00 p.m. He also said that we may have to deal with whatever is left of Earl's moisture later this week.
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#695 Postby dhweather » Mon Aug 16, 2004 8:58 pm

I may be way off, but my gut says Earl's remnants will just go into Mexico
or Central America.
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#696 Postby Frank P » Mon Aug 16, 2004 9:01 pm

the way it has been going of late might not be to far off... needs to slow down and get some northerly component to it, he's running out of time... that being said, you just never know with these things... look at Bonnie just a week ago, and the surprises we had with that system.... still, I think a track to central america or mexico certainly seems plausable right now...
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#697 Postby Bane » Mon Aug 16, 2004 9:10 pm

He's moving way too fast.
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#698 Postby Frank P » Mon Aug 16, 2004 9:17 pm

yep... looks to be hauling butt for sure and he's running out of time......

interesting though, last IR loop show some convection building off to the SW of the center... which is a first ...
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#699 Postby Air Force Met » Mon Aug 16, 2004 10:57 pm

~SirCane wrote:He'll probably form again- in the Gulf. Just like Bonnie.


Only if a piece breaks off and gets stuck in the BOC. IF not...he's headed to the Pacific. Given the strength of the high over the eastern GOM...it will be hard for a piece of energy to seperate itself and move NW.
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The only way Earl can survive a trip to the US...

#700 Postby PurdueWx80 » Mon Aug 16, 2004 11:05 pm

is if enough of a disturbance (wave, vort energy, depression or TS) can make it across the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche or Southern Gulf. Tonight's US models are placing a weak spot in the ridge because of an ULL over/near TX by Thurs/Fri. If that ends up being the case, the southerly component of the flow ahead of it would slowly pull the circulation north. The Eta actually lets it sit in the BOC, which could be bad for Mexico or the US since the water is so hot there now. Other models are also hinting at very weak flow in this location by Friday, so any remains would sit (and likely explode w/ little shear especially if it is far enough from the coast). The thing to watch is that circulation over Nevada (and of course the ridge over FL). If the NV low shoots E there will be less of a chance of the storm making it N, if it goes SE, that will weaken the ridge sufficiently for a move towards the Gulf coast. That's how I see it now, and it seems relatively reasonable.

Update / Tuesday morning - looks like most of Earl's energy will slam into Central America, so the above scenario doesn't seem quite as likely. The only way I see it happening is if some of the energy can feed into the disturbance over the BOC. The only time in the last 10 years an actual storm has gone through all of central America and back into the Gulf was Mitch in '98. Of course, he was a Cat 5.
Last edited by PurdueWx80 on Tue Aug 17, 2004 9:23 am, edited 2 times in total.
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