Earl Advisories

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Stratosphere747
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#701 Postby Stratosphere747 » Mon Aug 16, 2004 11:13 pm

By Thursday/Friday would ExEarl already be in the Pacific??
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#702 Postby PurdueWx80 » Mon Aug 16, 2004 11:19 pm

Could be, what I posted was the only way I think Earl could affect the United States.
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#703 Postby Stratosphere747 » Mon Aug 16, 2004 11:31 pm

I like your posts Purdue...

Nothing wrong with another view...That is how those of "us" with little understanding of the technicalities of the forecasting make some of it a little better to understand...
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#704 Postby MWatkins » Tue Aug 17, 2004 12:38 am

Earl looks HORRIBLE tonight. Chance of recovery...5.7%.

Not much left out there in the Caribbean. Glad to see it...redevelopment would have wrecked my right of track verification stats.

The score...GFS 1, MW 0.

MW
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#705 Postby Nimbus » Tue Aug 17, 2004 5:38 am

This morning the high over Florida is still there and the ULL that was over Central America has rolled west not south so there is very little steering to send a piece of Earls remnants north.
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#706 Postby snowflake » Tue Aug 17, 2004 6:00 am

One of the local met said last night that we may have to deal with Earl or whats left Of Earl starting Thursday, but the better chance of rain would be Friday. Another met takes Earl toward Brownsville, Texas or a little father south into Mexico.
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#707 Postby PurdueWx80 » Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:39 am

Nimbus wrote:This morning the high over Florida is still there and the ULL that was over Central America has rolled west not south so there is very little steering to send a piece of Earls remnants north.


I disagree. There is a subtle upper low over the western Caribbean, just east of Belize and just west of "Earl". Look at the NHC's water vapor loop and it's pretty easy to see the counterclockwise flow that is responsible for slowing the storm. It should steer it far enough to the northwest to keep most of the convection away from Central America. Although the 6 am discussion says Earl's remnants are still moving quickly, it seems that they have slowed tremendously in the past couple of hours as they approach the upper low. I'm still not saying my above scenario will happen, I'm just saying that is the only way it would affect the US and I think it remains a viable option by the weekend.
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#708 Postby GrimReaper » Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:47 am

:grr: DIE EARL!!! I want Earl to die, no wishcasting can resurrect him, now. We in Florida are sick of hurricanes. Thanks for all the great forecasting, and continue to advise on potential threats.
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#709 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:52 am

GrimReaper wrote::grr: DIE EARL!!! I want Earl to die, no wishcasting can resurrect him, now. We in Florida are sick of hurricanes. Thanks for all the great forecasting, and continue to advise on potential threats.


Even if Earl is redevelops, it's not coming to Florida. So you have nothing to worry about.
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#710 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:55 am

Earl will be in China by Friday, don't see him influencing anything for anybody. Looks like the tropics are going quiet for a few days.
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I guess...

#711 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 17, 2004 8:02 am

Dean4Storms wrote:Earl will be in China by Friday, don't see him influencing anything for anybody. Looks like the tropics are going quiet for a few days.



I guess you haven't looked at the BOC this morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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Re: I guess...

#712 Postby Derecho » Tue Aug 17, 2004 8:47 am

Stormcenter wrote:I guess you haven't looked at the BOC this morning.


Given that a TC forms in the BOC approximately once every 4 years, one of these days I'll have to use the search function to figure out the actual ratio of "Oooh, look, a cloud in the BOC, let's watch it develop!" posts to the actual number of BOC developments :-)

Surface pressures there are high, and there's no west wind at Campeche.
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#713 Postby Roxy » Tue Aug 17, 2004 8:58 am

As long as he stays away from Texas!
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Re: I guess...

#714 Postby PurdueWx80 » Tue Aug 17, 2004 9:00 am

Derecho wrote:Given that a TC forms in the BOC approximately once every 4 years, one of these days I'll have to use the search function to figure out the actual ratio of "Oooh, look, a cloud in the BOC, let's watch it develop!" posts to the actual number of BOC developments :-)

Surface pressures there are high, and there's no west wind at Campeche.


I haven't looked at long term statistics, but storms have formed in the BOC 6 of the last 9 years (95, 96, 98, 99, 00, 03), so that is hardly 1 every 4 years. Surface pressures in Mexico are high, but there is hint of cyclonic rotation based on 4 reports on each side of the bay/gulf.

There is also plenty of sustained convection along the old front, which is basically all you need given warm water and light shear.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_mex.html
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Re: I guess...

#715 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 17, 2004 9:16 am

Derecho wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:I guess you haven't looked at the BOC this morning.


Given that a TC forms in the BOC approximately once every 4 years, one of these days I'll have to use the search function to figure out the actual ratio of "Oooh, look, a cloud in the BOC, let's watch it develop!" posts to the actual number of BOC developments :-)

Surface pressures there are high, and there's no west wind at Campeche.


Derecho one day I will be right and something will form. :)
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#716 Postby zoeyann » Tue Aug 17, 2004 9:27 am

What direction and at what speed is X-Earl moving? I looked at the visible loop but I can not tell
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#717 Postby Lindaloo » Tue Aug 17, 2004 9:40 am

Roxy wrote:As long as he stays away from Texas!


Well he can come here as a little wave and give us some rain on the MS Gulf Coast. :lol:
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#718 Postby rbaker » Tue Aug 17, 2004 10:08 am

upper flow clearly seen in water vapor is west then goes sw to ne like it has practically the last month, and its there again today, only diff. is its moved from over the weekend to the western gulf as the bermuda ridge axis has poked in over s. fla again. So regardless whether t-showers are there now, or remanants from earl happen to get up in that area, I don't see flow from there going anywhere from there except north and then ne.
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Earl question.......

#719 Postby ~SirCane » Tue Aug 17, 2004 1:21 pm

Is there any chance this Earl wave ends up in the Bay of Campeche?
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#720 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 17, 2004 1:23 pm

There is a small chance, but it's unlikely. Looks to me like he will stay over Mexico. Whatever would wind up in the BOC would be torn up pretty bad from the mountainous terrain.
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