Earl Advisories

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Stormcenter
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Earl's remains

#721 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 17, 2004 1:58 pm

I think some of Earls' remains will be pull NW into the
GOM by the upper low ahead of it in the next few days. We MAY have another Bonnie type scenario except this time the condition should be a little more conducive for development in the GOM.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#722 Postby PurdueWx80 » Tue Aug 17, 2004 2:02 pm

I mostly agree. "Earl" seems to have several waves with it, the one about to plow into central America, the other a few hundred miles behind. So far that upper low is only pulling outflow to the N, but it certainly looks strong enough to get something up there.
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#723 Postby Anonymous » Tue Aug 17, 2004 2:03 pm

I think for 2004... Earl: 45 mph
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#724 Postby Matthew5 » Tue Aug 17, 2004 2:09 pm

We will have to see if the enviroment up there is favable for tropical cyclone formation. But to form a storm, that upper low is going to have to pull alot more tropical heat up into the Gulf(For now the center of energy is down there). For now the system known as Earl looks like it is moving slower in will likely move into central America. But there is a outside chance if it where to stall where it is. While the upper low where to move to the west or west-southwest, it would get outflow from the upper low(Like Bonnie) which is starting to show some signs of the convection coming together. But still that is a outside shot! :roll:


Just my 2 cents again :)
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Earl regenerating and............

#725 Postby dixiebreeze » Tue Aug 17, 2004 2:11 pm

it looks to me like he's moving in a NW direction. I'm not counting Earl out just yet!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg
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#726 Postby hurricanefreak1988 » Tue Aug 17, 2004 2:13 pm

How can you count him out? Almost all of the victims of the East Caribbean have come back to life. Earl is coming back, ya'll. Just wait and see :-)
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#727 Postby PurdueWx80 » Tue Aug 17, 2004 2:15 pm

It's too difficult to track the storm as a whole because convection keeps popping up all over. Earlier, it looked to be moving WSW because convection built that way. Now it's building to the NW, which gives us the impression it is moving that way. In all likelihood it is still moving due W at a good clip. It's going to get eaten up by land in a bit unless it jumps N (not gonna happen in the next hour). ;)
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#728 Postby dixiebreeze » Tue Aug 17, 2004 2:16 pm

I agree, SF. Storms R US this season. :roll:
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#729 Postby OtherHD » Tue Aug 17, 2004 2:18 pm

Earl is not regenerating, nor is he moving NW. He's about to plow right into Honduras with his very brisk westward movement. I think redevelopment is out of the question now.
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#730 Postby Rainband » Tue Aug 17, 2004 2:20 pm

I agree Lyle :wink: Good the US needs a break :D
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#731 Postby hurricanefreak1988 » Tue Aug 17, 2004 2:22 pm

Well at least he cut the E-Pac's lead to just one :P

The question is, when will the tying run get on base? Let's hope it's soon, before the E-Pac wakes up from its nap. And when it does wake up, it'll probably be grumpy when it finds out that the Atlantic is on a 5-0 run :eek:
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#732 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 17, 2004 2:23 pm

He's too close to land. He's about to barrel into Central America and die.
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#733 Postby dixiebreeze » Tue Aug 17, 2004 2:24 pm

17/0615 UTC 14.9N 77.3W T1.0/2.0 EARL

Not sure how old this report is...
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#734 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 17, 2004 2:27 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:17/0615 UTC 14.9N 77.3W T1.0/2.0 EARL

Not sure how old this report is...


This Morning at 2:15am. 2.0 is only 30 mph and 1.0 is less than that. He's not anything.
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#735 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 17, 2004 2:28 pm

If you look at the visible sat pics, you don't see any organization to convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Nothing really circulating and it's still generally moving yo the west. It probably go through Central America and maybe come out on the Pacific side and than have a chance of developing there again.
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#736 Postby bfez1 » Tue Aug 17, 2004 2:29 pm

Local met here said Earl is dead!!! Will not reorganize!
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#737 Postby Wnghs2007 » Tue Aug 17, 2004 2:37 pm

Say adios to Senor Earl. He is dead and is not coming back. Well, except maybe when the wave that was once him gets into the Eastern Pacific with the Wet Phase of the MJO there now.
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#738 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 17, 2004 2:39 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:Say adios to Senor Earl. He is dead and is not coming back. Well, except maybe when the wave that was once him gets into the Eastern Pacific with the Wet Phase of the MJO there now.


What is up with the EPAC this year? 4 named storms and their peak is right now?

I'm not complaining though. I love it when the Atlantic is more active. :lol:
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#739 Postby corpusbreeze » Tue Aug 17, 2004 2:42 pm

After Earl hits Central America it might slow down and spread out. Half going to EPAC the other to the BOC.
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#740 Postby cflweather » Tue Aug 17, 2004 2:45 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

What is the spin ahead of Earl picture or am I seeing things
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