Earl Advisories

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Dan
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#761 Postby Dan » Wed Aug 18, 2004 9:34 am

most likely that moisture will get pulled northward as the next cold front comes down on Friday and stall across the Southeast US.
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#762 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Aug 18, 2004 9:41 am

It's unlikely that's will redevelop in the Western Carribean or the Gulf. However I don't think it can be totally ruled out, especially considering what happened with Bonnie. It really looked wiped out, but they was still something there, that was left behind. And it was able to regenerate again.
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#763 Postby Guest » Wed Aug 18, 2004 9:46 am

I agree with Purduewx that the wave if develps in the BOC it would have to be a F storm. What do you all think?
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#764 Postby PurdueWx80 » Wed Aug 18, 2004 9:47 am

Thunder44 wrote:It's unlikely that's will redevelop in the Western Carribean or the Gulf. However I don't think it can be totally ruled out, especially considering what happened with Bonnie. It really looked wiped out, but they was still something there, that was left behind. And it was able to regenerate again.


The difference between the two systems is that Bonnie remained over water the whole time without much interaction with land. A small, tight closed circulation was evident on Cancun's radar as that tiny blob of convection rolled by. Whatever low-level feature that was associated with Earl would have gone through Central America overnight. There is obviously some moisture and lower pressure with the mid/upper part of the system that is remaining in the Caribbean. The upper low over the Yucatan has weakened and slowed down considerably, although it is still shearing the thunderstorms off quite a bit. Keep your eyes on the Bay of Campeche as well.
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#765 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Aug 18, 2004 4:24 pm

Based on the latest loop, it looks like the energy from Earl will indeed make it into the BOC. The convection moving across the Yucatan is looks pretty deep.
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]

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#766 Postby GalvestonDuck » Wed Aug 18, 2004 4:32 pm

Earl reminds me of a scene in Monty Python and the Holy Grail:

The Dead Collector: Bring out yer dead!
[A man puts a body on the cart]
Large Man with Dead Body: Here's one.
The Dead Collector: That'll be ninepence.
The Dead Body That Claims It Isn't: I'm not dead.
The Dead Collector: What?
Large Man with Dead Body: Nothing. There's your ninepence.
The Dead Body That Claims It Isn't: I'm not dead.
The Dead Collector: 'Ere, he says he's not dead.
Large Man with Dead Body: Yes he is.
The Dead Body That Claims It Isn't: I'm not.
The Dead Collector: He isn't.
Large Man with Dead Body: Well, he will be soon, he's very ill.
The Dead Body That Claims It Isn't: I'm getting better.
Large Man with Dead Body: No you're not, you'll be stone dead in a moment.
The Dead Collector: Well, I can't take him like that. It's against regulations.
The Dead Body That Claims It Isn't: I don't want to go on the cart.
Large Man with Dead Body: Oh, don't be such a baby.
The Dead Collector: I can't take him.
The Dead Body That Claims It Isn't: I feel fine.
Large Man with Dead Body: Oh, do me a favor.
The Dead Collector: I can't.
Large Man with Dead Body: Well, can you hang around for a couple of minutes? He won't be long.
The Dead Collector: I promised I'd be at the Robinsons'. They've lost nine today.
Large Man with Dead Body: Well, when's your next round?
The Dead Collector: Thursday.
The Dead Body That Claims It Isn't: I think I'll go for a walk.
Large Man with Dead Body: You're not fooling anyone, you know. Isn't there anything you could do?
The Dead Body That Claims It Isn't: I feel happy. I feel happy.
[The Dead Collector glances up and down the street furtively, then silences the Body with his a whack of his club]Large Man with Dead Body: Ah, thank you very much.
The Dead Collector: Not at all. See you on Thursday.
Large Man with Dead Body: Right.
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#767 Postby Fire in the Sky » Wed Aug 18, 2004 4:41 pm

LOL.. So what's going to be the stick that knocks 'im dead Duck??

Is he disapating, taking a backdoor route into the GOM, graduating from "E" to "F" and then hugging the coast all the way to TX?? Yikes?
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#768 Postby PurdueWx80 » Wed Aug 18, 2004 4:55 pm

Fire in the Sky wrote:LOL.. So what's going to be the stick that knocks 'im dead Duck??

Is he disapating, taking a backdoor route into the GOM, graduating from "E" to "F" and then hugging the coast all the way to TX?? Yikes?


Nearly all of Earl's remains are over western central America and the Pacific Ocean. There was some moisture dragged north by the upper low over the Yucatan (which has weakened a lot today) but almost everything else is gone. The storms over the Yucatan probably had some moisture from Earl injected into them, but it can be attributed to heating of land and the upper low (w/ it's relatively colder mid/upper temps). The convection in the BOC/GOM has died, but there is obviously something still there and I still think this area has to be watched over the next couple of days. The small upper ridge over the Gulf/FL is providing an excellent chance for outflow to the north w/ relatively little shear over the earlier convective complex. I'd look for the squall-line like feature over the gulf to form another MCS tonight somewhere in the BOC.
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#769 Postby Aimless » Wed Aug 18, 2004 7:42 pm

LOL.. Galveston... that one of my favorite movies!!!... Is it an African or European Swallow? .... I don't know......
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