Danielle Advisories

[cycloneye]

If you don't mind ... could someone explain T numbers to me?

SSD dvorak T numbers are used to estimate the wind profile of a system.Below is a chart that illustrates those T numbers from 1.0 to 8.0 from weak to very strong.For example 1.0 means 25 kts of winds.Charley has now 5.0 T number means 90 kts.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

[cycloneye]

lol...Luis....getting carried away are we?

HD I really dont know what in the world happened as those repeated pics where posted.

[OtherHD]

Seems to be happening to a lot of other people as well.

[cycloneye]

Yes I think it is the heavy traffic going on.

[x-y-no]

SSD dvorak T numbers are used to estimate the wind profile of a system.Below is a chart that illustrates those T numbers from 1.0 to 8.0 from weak to very strong.For example 1.0 means 25 kts of winds.Charley has now 5.0 T number means 90 kts.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

Thanks cycloneye. That's straightforward enough.

[ChaserUK]

Have you please got a link to a good site which covers all these invests? I did have some on another PC but the HD on there is corrupted.

[pavelbure224]

is there any models for 94L?

[NJCane]

http://net-waves.com/weather/model.php

[Dean4Storms]

Very impressive wave for just exiting the coast of Africa. Looks like a Depression could form over the next day or so.

[cycloneye]

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE ARE CENTERED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL SIGNS
OF DEVELOPMENT.

94L is the wave that emerged west africa this morning that looks like a TD now.The wave in front I dont see it organizing now.

[*StOrmsPr*]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 131253
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR (AL042004) ON 20040813 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040813 1200 040814 0000 040814 1200 040815 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.2N 22.1W 12.5N 24.5W 12.6N 27.4W 12.8N 30.5W
BAMM 12.2N 22.1W 12.5N 24.2W 12.4N 26.8W 12.4N 29.6W
A98E 12.2N 22.1W 12.6N 24.8W 12.9N 27.7W 13.2N 30.7W
LBAR 12.2N 22.1W 12.7N 24.7W 13.1N 27.6W 13.8N 31.0W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS 48KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040815 1200 040816 1200 040817 1200 040818 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.2N 33.7W 14.0N 39.2W 15.9N 42.4W 18.0N 43.8W
BAMM 12.6N 32.6W 13.0N 37.4W 14.2N 41.1W 15.7N 44.2W
A98E 13.3N 33.5W 14.1N 38.5W 15.2N 43.1W 17.6N 46.4W
LBAR 14.6N 34.4W 16.4N 40.3W 19.6N 43.5W 20.2N 44.0W
SHIP 54KTS 61KTS 61KTS 59KTS
DSHP 54KTS 61KTS 61KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 22.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 19.5W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.4N LONM24 = 16.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Hyperstorm]

Well, just as expected. The track will stay to the west for the next 2-3 days, but after that...there is an ULL near 30N 50W that could try to pull it more WNW with time. Let's hope that happens, but for now westerly is the one...

[Brent]

NRL calls it 04LNONAME

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[wx247]

Here we go...again. With this trend, my numbers for the season may not be far off.

[ncweatherwizard]

http://www.geocities.com/weatherwizard88/danielle.html

Forecast will come out around 1PM hopefully, followed by a Charley forecast/update.

[Hyperstorm]

TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI AUG 13 2004

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.0 WEST OR ABOUT
240 MILES... 390 KM... SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...12.5 N... 24.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI AUG 13 2004

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.0 WEST OR ABOUT
240 MILES... 390 KM... SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...12.5 N... 24.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

Looks like it will be a race between TD#4 and TD#5 to see which will be a storm first or if both will be storms tonight.

[cycloneye]

Discussion about TD#4:

Computer Models
Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 2


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 13, 2004



conventional and microwave satellite imagery continue to indicate
that Tropical Depression Five is getting better organized. The
cyclone could possibly be a tropical storm already...but the
initial intensity was held at 30 kt based on a blend of Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates of t2.5...or 35 kt...from TAFB and
t2.0...or 30 kt...from SAB. However...it would not take much more
banding or deep convection to develop near the center for this
system to become a tropical storm.

The initial motion estimate remains 280/13. There is no significant
change to the previous track reasoning. The track was shifted a
little to right based on the center becoming better defined a
little farther north. By 48 hours...all the global models still
agree on a mid-level trough digging southeastward and then south
and southwestward between 35-40w longitude...which should weaken
the subtropical ridge. The question is how much weakening of the
ridge will occur. Several of the NHC models indicate a northward
motion after 96 hours...but a small poleward stair-step in the
track...with a return to a west-northwestward motion...could occur
instead. The official track is a compromise of those two scenarios
until more consistent model guidance becomes available.

Only slow intensification is forecast given the high latitude of the
cyclone and the relatively cool water...26-27c SSTs...that the
cyclone will be passing over...even though the vertical shear is
expected to remain below 10 kt through 48 hours. The official
intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS intensity model. However
...If the cyclone takes a more southerly track and stays over
warmer water...then it could become a hurricane by 72 hours.

Forecaster Stewart


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 13/2100z 12.5n 24.0w 30 kt
12hr VT 14/0600z 12.8n 25.9w 35 kt
24hr VT 14/1800z 13.3n 28.3w 40 kt
36hr VT 15/0600z 14.0n 30.9w 50 kt
48hr VT 15/1800z 15.2n 34.1w 55 kt
72hr VT 16/1800z 16.5n 38.0w 55 kt
96hr VT 17/1800z 17.5n 42.0w 60 kt
120hr VT 18/1800z 19.0n 45.5w 60 kt



Looks like this one will be a fish but if a strong ridge builds after trough leaves central atlantic then watch out but for now it is very far away to especulate on tracks.

[Hyperstorm]

** WTNT44 KNHC 132100 ***
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE
CYCLONE COULD POSSIBLY BE A TROPICAL STORM ALREADY...BUT THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5...OR 35 KT...FROM TAFB AND
T2.0...OR 30 KT...FROM SAB. HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH MORE
BANDING OR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 280/13. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK REASONING. THE TRACK WAS SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO RIGHT BASED ON THE CENTER BECOMING BETTER DEFINED A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. BY 48 HOURS...ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL
AGREE ON A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN SOUTH
AND SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN 35-40W LONGITUDE...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE WILL OCCUR. SEVERAL OF THE NHC MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWARD
MOTION AFTER 96 HOURS...BUT A SMALL POLEWARD STAIR-STEP IN THE
TRACK...WITH A RETURN TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...COULD OCCUR
INSTEAD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A COMPROMISE OF THOSE TWO SCENARIOS
UNTIL MORE CONSISTENT MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE.

ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST GIVEN THE HIGH LATITUDE OF THE
CYCLONE AND THE RELATIVELY COOL WATER...26-27C SSTS...THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER...EVEN THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. HOWEVER
...IF THE CYCLONE TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND STAYS OVER
WARMER WATER...THEN IT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 12.5N 24.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 12.8N 25.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 13.3N 28.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 14.0N 30.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 15.2N 34.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 16.5N 38.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 17.5N 42.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 18/1800Z 19.0N 45.5W 60 KT


$$

[Hurricanehink]

Hmm.... what will become Danielle first, and what one will become Earl? I still can't believe we've had this much activity already.... Hopefully this will safely turn out to sea.