Danielle Advisories

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ncweatherwizard
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Danielle #3 farther right and less aggressive

#61 Postby ncweatherwizard » Sat Aug 14, 2004 7:34 am

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... ielle.html

I'm going to hold off for now with TD 5 as I work on Charley coming in, since that forecast is still is holding up well.
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T numbers for Danielle 4.0 and Earl 2.5

#62 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 14, 2004 7:22 pm

15/0000 UTC 13.7N 29.4W T4.0/4.0 DANIELLE -- Atlantic Ocean
14/2345 UTC 10.9N 55.7W T2.5/2.5 EARL -- Atlantic Ocean

Danielle appears with those T numbers to gain hurricane status at11 PM.
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#63 Postby LaBreeze » Sat Aug 14, 2004 7:26 pm

She's got to be growing gills - interesting appearance, but a fish in the making.
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#64 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 14, 2004 7:26 pm

Image

Earl is organizing slowly.

Image

Danielle looks like a hurricane.
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#65 Postby Guest » Sat Aug 14, 2004 7:52 pm

You need to watch this closely Puerto Rico. Earl even though NHC says is going to be south of you might take a right turn early.
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Hurricane DANIELLE!?!

#66 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sat Aug 14, 2004 8:04 pm

Do you think it is one. It looks very well orgainized.


Image
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#67 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sat Aug 14, 2004 8:30 pm

Hey Cycloneye. Can you get us a new shot of africa using Sat Dunnde.....Im wondering what It looks like in Africa. And I am curious because of the one person mentioning one of the models had the F storm come later on.
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Danielle still storm.....70 MPH, Pressure 990 mb.

#68 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:00 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html



| 20040815.0100.meteo-7.ir_bw.x.04LDANIELLE.60kts-990mb-139N-293W.jpg |
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11pm-HURRICANE DANIELLE

#69 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:34 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SAT AUG 14 2004

...DANIELLE BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE SEASON OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE
DANIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 30.0 WEST OR ABOUT 375 MILES... 605 KM...
WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

DANIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH
...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...14.2 N... 30.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.
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#70 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:35 pm

Wow. NRL was wrong. I checked in and it was only 70 MPH.
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#71 Postby Stormchaser16 » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:36 pm

Aye..... good looking system.... best for all that it will just turn out to sea
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#72 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:38 pm

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 7

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 14, 2004


Dvorak T numbers are 4.0...4.0...and 3.5 from SAB...AFWA...and
TAFB respectively. Satellite imagery since 0000 UTC indicates that
Danielle has continued to become better organized and a 2247 UTC
SSMI microwave overpass detected a developing eye feature.
Danielle is therefore upgraded to 65 kt...the third hurricane of
the season. Shear is expected to remain low and sea surface
temperatures are warm enough for continued intensification through
48 hours. Thereafter increasing southwesterly shear as indicated
by the global models will likely begin to weaken the cyclone. The
intensity forecast follows the SHIPS intensity model closely.


The initial motion is estimated at 290/13. Global models continue
to predict a large mid-level trough over the eastern Atlantic in
about 24 hours. This will erode the ridge and allow Danielle to
turn northwest and then north-northwest late in the forecast
period. The GFDL and UKMET models remain to the right of the
official track while the GFS model is to the left. The official
forecast is near the middle of the model envelope and close to the
global model consensus.


Forecaster brown/Beven


forecast positions and Max winds


initial 15/0300z 14.2n 30.0w 65 kt
12hr VT 15/1200z 14.9n 31.6w 70 kt
24hr VT 16/0000z 16.2n 33.6w 80 kt
36hr VT 16/1200z 17.7n 35.4w 80 kt
48hr VT 17/0000z 19.1n 37.0w 80 kt
72hr VT 18/0000z 22.0n 40.0w 75 kt
96hr VT 19/0000z 25.0n 42.0w 70 kt
120hr VT 20/0000z 28.0n 43.0w 65 kt
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Danielle #4 stronger but harmless

#73 Postby ncweatherwizard » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:44 pm

May effect the Azores in time, but that's about it; have it peaking at 90kts.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... ielle.html
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#74 Postby Hurricanehink » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:47 pm

Just to let you know, NHC upgraded Danielle at 11. It wounds reasonable.
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#75 Postby HalloweenGale » Sat Aug 14, 2004 10:37 pm

thats a cane, but a very small one @ best.
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#76 Postby stormchazer » Sat Aug 14, 2004 10:41 pm

Yep, love those big beautiful fish storms.
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#77 Postby Yankeegirl » Sat Aug 14, 2004 11:16 pm

And if its not a cane, then its a really pretty little storm... :eek:
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Danielle forms eye, NHC says possible major storm in 36 hrs

#78 Postby PurdueWx80 » Sun Aug 15, 2004 4:36 am

As of 5:30 EDT, Danielle has a very distinct and small eye. Looks like we could have our next major storm, especially since she is still moving in a general W to WNW direction. The trough to the NW still is having no effect, and doesn't appear it will for another day or so.
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Danielle may miss trough

#79 Postby stormernie » Sun Aug 15, 2004 1:16 pm

In reviewing the water vapor loop it is becoming increasly clear that the ULL and trough to the N and NE of Danielle may not have a big enough impact and after maybe a few hours of moving NW turn back to the WNW or W with time.

I would like to hear what the rest of the folks feel, also, the new avn run shows a new Tropical system approaching the leeward islands in 144 hours. I have a feeling that this may be the next low/wave that will emerge off africa later today/tonight.
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Danielle a Cat 3 at 5 or 11 p.m.??

#80 Postby PurdueWx80 » Sun Aug 15, 2004 1:19 pm

Danielle's satellite appearance continues to improve. The eye is small and nearly cloud-free, and deep convection encompasses the entire storm. Outflow is excellent in all directions and it is still moving WNW, over warmer waters than expected earlier.
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