Frances Advisories

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CocoaBill
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Frances looks large on this model

#1 Postby CocoaBill » Sat Aug 21, 2004 11:47 pm

but is it looking fishy at 160 hrs?

http://facs.scripps.edu/surf/nata.html

(i know its just showing that its kicking up waves)
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#2 Postby Derecho » Sat Aug 21, 2004 11:52 pm

It's just waveheights derived from an (old, last nights) run of the GFS model.
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#3 Postby CaluWxBill » Sun Aug 22, 2004 12:47 am

Derecho wrote:It's just waveheights derived from an (old, last nights) run of the GFS model.


Wave heights greater than 40 ft, seem fairly good
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Anonymous

#4 Postby Anonymous » Sun Aug 22, 2004 1:11 am

CaluWxBill wrote:
Derecho wrote:It's just waveheights derived from an (old, last nights) run of the GFS model.


Wave heights greater than 40 ft, seem fairly good


Cool animation. Future Frances does look good on there. 40ft :eek:
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Guest

#5 Postby Guest » Sun Aug 22, 2004 11:15 am

Its looking on that model like frances turns north. But it does get pretty big waves...
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Derek Ortt

Should see TD 6 within 48 hours

#6 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 23, 2004 7:16 pm

With the improved organization this evening, as well as the veryf avorable conditions with little shear and ample moisture from SSMI TPW data, I would be quite surprised if we do not have a depression forming from the CV system within the next 48 hours. This also agrees with the global model guidance.

As for the track, I still do not see much to suggest that this will make it all the way across. The models actually seem to be verifying with this thing, and with the weakness, I'd be very surprised to see this make it past 60W south of 25N
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#7 Postby Guest » Mon Aug 23, 2004 8:48 pm

I believe your right. This morning I really did not see a whole lot. Now the organization is there and its ready to pop.
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#8 Postby Guest » Mon Aug 23, 2004 9:36 pm

yeah, its organizing. But the real wave to watch is still in Africa. It looks organized already!
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#9 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 23, 2004 9:56 pm

I wouldn't be too sure about it recurving. Note that the GFS moves it only a few degrees from 48-120 hours. The GFS has been too slow with most of these systems. 18Z GFS says it misses the trof and continues WNW, possibly threatening Florida or the southeast U.S. coast as the ridge builds back north of it:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _312.shtml
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#10 Postby Guest » Mon Aug 23, 2004 10:08 pm

Could be a good surfing storm. Daniel was a flop with only a 2 ft groundswell. Have a good day.
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#11 Postby flyingphish » Mon Aug 23, 2004 10:09 pm

Looks like a formidable system in progress . Good news on probable fish, with this much agreement, this early . This fish will probably be named. That would make the first three out five named systems U.S. landfaller's. Very strange. Looking out on the calendar (and assuming this system is a fish) the U.S. is in Labor Day weekend before any new CV system would threaten landfall. And..most CV systems..if they develop.. are fish storms. So possibly..a reprieve from the CV threat this season. Not so comfortable with a late season GOM or Carribean dismissal yet . Charley bit us pretty hard, so I am a liittle more fearful than usual about those warm waters to the S. and S.W.
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#12 Postby TS Zack » Mon Aug 23, 2004 11:53 pm

I wouldn't say a fish just yet. This system is very weak and is going to continue West. All models are moving farther West if you ask me Puerto Rico watch out.
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Renata
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WOW! Look at "Frances"

#13 Postby Renata » Tue Aug 24, 2004 5:19 am

What was she eating overnight?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/

Still some ways off from being TD ... latest QS 0812UTC today shows light winds at center of rotation ... 5 kt .. not of the speed that's required for TD status. Give her another 36 hours or so. Let's say around 38W to 40W.

R
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#14 Postby Matthew5 » Tue Aug 24, 2004 5:22 am

Don't trust the Quickscats at all! Look how good they where with Charley :grr: :grr: :grr:
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#15 Postby HurricaneGirl » Tue Aug 24, 2004 6:27 am

Yes, nice burst of convection this morning and some good circulation is going on!
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cycloneye
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The big question=Will trough grab Frances?

#16 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 24, 2004 7:01 am

This is the question that all who live in the lesser antilles islands and also in the US are asking today.It is low in latitud at this time and the trough is way to the NW of the system.The question is if the trough will be sufficient strong enough to make whatever this system will be to move away from the islands.I guess that we will know in a couple of days what in reallity will transpire between the trough and the system.

What are your opinions about this?

Image
Last edited by cycloneye on Thu Aug 26, 2004 8:22 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#17 Postby perk » Tue Aug 24, 2004 7:10 am

After taking a look at the wv imagery it looks to me that the trof is lifting slowly north.
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#18 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 24, 2004 8:47 am

Any more thoughts about the trough grabbing this system or not?
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Derek Ortt

#19 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 24, 2004 9:14 am

The trough is digging.

2 possibilities

1: It goes out to sea
2. It remains weak, becomes a TD or weak TS and dissipates moving to the west east of the islands due to strong SW shear
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Guest

#20 Postby Guest » Tue Aug 24, 2004 9:26 am

I take #2
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