Frances Advisories

[Hurrilurker]

If the trough is not going to take it and it's moving North of the islands, I'm getting the stronger feeling that everyone's hinting at the SE coast... Am I wrong?

I'd say that's a very large extrapolation of the analysis at this point. It means it's vaguely possible it won't be recurved soon but it's much too far out to be calling it a threat to anything. Even if it does continue more westward, the increasing shear could destroy it...just too many possibilities at this point.

[MGC]

No reason to think just yet TD-6 will fish. Don't look like the trough will have that much of an effect. Will have to watch if the track resumes a more westerly course later in the forecast period.............MGC

[MWatkins]

Now what is this! Talk about hyping up uncertainty. This takes the cake. Its going to move NW but the trof will not likely play a role?? I am missing something here with the Disc. so Der, MWatkins, or Dortt please clear the confusion from the TPC Disc.

TIA



Dynamical model predictions indicate a weakening of the mid-tropospheric
ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone over the next several
days...due to the incursion of a trough into the central Atlantic.
This trough is at rather high latitudes however...so it is not
likely to play a direct role in steering the tropical cyclone.

Hey KatDaddy...

Seems like they are taking the path of least regret. to me it sounds like they are saying...essentially...well...we see the weakness in the ridge in the model...but we don't see where it's coming from...so we're going to hold off on the rightward track until things come into better focus.

At first glance...I really think the TPC track is too far right in the extended.

MW

[flyingphish]

Methodology is simply illogical. How can a tiny storm..BECOME a MENACE.Simply put...Captain,...Shall we proceed? Warp Five Scotty !!

[hurricanetrack]

The track is almost exactly like Isabel. Look at the 0Z GFS operational run from the NCO site:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... arib.shtml

Click on the loop of the MSLP and watch it come across and hit NC on day 14 (336 hours from now). Of course, this is highly uncertain but we should at least be interested in the track since it looks so similar to Isabel last year. I was amazed at the similarities.

We shall see what the other major models "say" as time goes on. This certainly has my attention.

But it's just one run....

[James]

TD #6 is slowly getting better organised, and as such the intensity has been increased to 30kts. It should become Frances in 12 hours or less.

** WTNT41 KNHC 250839 ***
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 25 2004

IR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED A
LITTLE...PRIMARILY IN A CURVED BAND TO THE NORTH...AND THE OUTFLOW
IS ESTABLISHED EVERYWHERE BUT TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE CYCLONE WILL
LIKELY STRENGTHEN SINCE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM SSTS FOR THE NEXT 2 TO
3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER SOME SHEAR AS
SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL AND SHIPS MODELS. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HINDER SLOW STRENGTHENING.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS.
CURRENTLY...THE CYCLONE IS SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT
UNANIMOUSLY...ALL GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE RIDGE AS A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 3 DAYS. BECAUSE OF CONTINUITY...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IT IS
STILL TO THE LEFT OF THE GFDL AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS. MOST LIKELY
THE TRACK HAS TO BE ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT LATER TODAY IF MODELS
INSIST ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH. AT THIS
TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND AVAILABLE TRACK MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD WELL-EAST OT THE LESSER
ANTILLES IN 4 OR 5 DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0900Z 11.4N 37.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 11.8N 39.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 12.5N 42.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 26/1800Z 13.5N 44.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/0600Z 14.5N 46.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 28/0600Z 16.5N 49.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 29/0600Z 19.0N 52.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 30/0600Z 22.0N 54.0W 70 KT

[dixiebreeze]

this morning:

25/0615 UTC 11.2N 36.2W T2.0/2.0 06 -- Atlantic Ocean

[dixiebreeze]

Here she is:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

[Guest]

the dates on those are aug 17th

[Guest]

how do you go to this site that is updated on the date?

[Guest]

sorry i was wrong it is today's date but it shows now hitting Va at 336 hrs

[Guest]

thats even better for me . And guess what starts if it hits us on that date? WE DELAY THE FIRST DAY OF SCHOOL! lol. school starts on the 7th or 8th. I think this coould do an isabel, except it would be from a different angle.

[Guest]

shes getting better and better organized.

[Thunder44]

It may become a TS later today. But it's heading towards an area of increasing subsidence, just east of the Lesser Antilies. This may inhibit strenghtening.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[cycloneye]

25/1145 UTC 11.3N 38.0W T2.5/2.5 06 -- Atlantic Ocean

A minimal tropical storm at 11 am?

[Derek Ortt]

That is likely the single worst satellite estimate, ever

This appears to be a 1.5/2.0 or possible even a 1.0/2.0 (would not break constraints quite yet)

[hurricanemike]

AFWA is only T1.5

TPNT KGWC 251210
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX
B. 25/1131Z (65)
C. 11.3N/5
D. 38.4W/6
E. SIX/MET7
F. T1.5/1.5/STT:S0.0/9HRS -25/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. FINAL T BASED ON DT, PT SUPPORTS.

AODT: T2.7 (CRVD BND)

ARCHULETTA

[Guest]

Looks like a tropical wave again.

[mascpa]

It appears that TD#6/future Frances is not strengthening as quickly as anticipated. Since it appears that she will remain weaker, does it follow that she will probably track father west and less poleward than was thought?

[James]

Looks a little 'stretched out'. Maybe this is just temporary.