#3612 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:19 pm
Today's Discussion
POSTED: September 3, 2004 11:44 a.m.
Hurricane Frances, as of 11 A.M. EDT, is centered at 25.5 north and 76.7 west, 225 miles east-southeast of West Palm Beach, Florida. Frances is moving toward the west-northwest at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 115 mph. This makes Frances a category 3 hurricane. Winds gusts to 115 miles per hour have been reported in the Abacos. Eleuthera reported sustained winds of near 100 mph this morning as the eye passed over. The central pressure within the hurricane is 957 millibars (28.26 inches). A hurricane warning remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas. A hurricane warning also remains in effect for Florida's east coast, from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach, including Lake Okeechobee. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for the middle and upper Florida Keys, from south of Florida City, to the Seven Mile Bridge, including Florida Bay. And, a hurricane watch is now in effect from north of Flagler Beach, to Fernandina Beach.
Note that Frances has changed in intensity since yesterday, weakening to a category 3 hurricane; but that is still a major hurricane. Also note that the forward speed has slowed. We expect landfall on the Space Coast of Florida (Brevard County), Sunday morning. The strength of the guiding ridge, or high to the north will again be key; there is some room for a turn that would have the hurricane parallel the coast, even head toward the Carolinas. A stronger high to the north would take Frances across the peninsula, toward southwestern Georgia. Frances will likely undergo fluctuations up to the time of landfall; re-strengthening is not out of the question, particularly as it encounters the Gulf Stream waters. However, we do not expect a hurricane of the intensity of Charley upon landfall; a strong category 2 or a category 3 is the most likely intensity.
The slow movement of this hurricane means torrential, flooding rains, over a longer time period; first in its path is Florida, then farther inland, depending upon its ultimate track.
As for conditions at the point of and just north of landfall, we expect sustained winds near 100-mph, gusts to 130 mph or higher, a storm surge of 9-12 feet and 10-20 inches of rainfall in the path of Frances. Tornadoes will become a concern, as well, in some of the outer bands and in the east quadrant of the storm once it does get inland.
As of 11 AM EDT, Storm Ivan was located near 9.6 north and 32.9 west or about 745 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph and the storm is moving west near 18 mph. Current forecast tracks by model output show this system tracking nearly due west for the next several days then turning northwest. Some longer range model output is suggesting this system will move into Hispaniola late next week then into the Bahamas next weekend. Until this system develops further, this is mostly speculation. But it is possible another tropical cyclone could threaten the southeast U.S. in about 10 days.
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