Frances Advisories

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debbiet
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QUESTION FOR AIR FORCE MET

#3641 Postby debbiet » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:18 pm

Glad you're here AFM...have really respected your insight especially since Isabel last year. I have a dear friend who lives in Jupiter, FL and who is naturally very anxious/concerned about losing her home...she's safely evacuated though...WHEW! At this point it seems the track of the storm is going to be well within the NHC cone...but what are your thoughts about strength or re-strengthening?
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#3642 Postby cape_escape » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:18 pm

Sanibel wrote:Frances continues to defy predictions. She's confirming the GFDL intensity forecast more and more. Her convection says otherwise.

How does a weaker storm react to steering currents?


Sanibel, what's your thoughts regarding us in Lee County? What should we expect?
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#3643 Postby mb229 » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:19 pm

...lest we forget what 100 mph wind, 961 mb pressure really means:

84 to 95 knots
96 to 110 mph
154 to 177 kph
980 - 965 mb

Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings.
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#3644 Postby Hurricane Cheese » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:20 pm

Oh don't get me wrong...those in Frances' path still must take this storm seriously, especially the flood threats....

She's just not gonna be a big wind producer (as in Cat 4/5) like was feared yesterday.
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#3645 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:24 pm

Even though I don't expect this to come in as a Cat 2, just remember Isabel was one last year at landfall, as was Floyd(might be a similar flood problem too). Opal and Fran were Category Three's.
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#neversummer

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Re: QUESTION FOR AIR FORCE MET

#3646 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:25 pm

debbiet wrote:Glad you're here AFM...have really respected your insight especially since Isabel last year. I have a dear friend who lives in Jupiter, FL and who is naturally very anxious/concerned about losing her home...she's safely evacuated though...WHEW! At this point it seems the track of the storm is going to be well within the NHC cone...but what are your thoughts about strength or re-strengthening?


The core is disrupted. The wind field has spread out. I don't think any big time strengthening for the next 12-18 hours. After that...possible it may go back up to 130-135.
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Even if Frances hits as a Category 1.......

#3647 Postby HurricaneBill » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:26 pm

She could still be destructive.

1. Parts of Florida are still reeling from Hurricane Charley. Frances could worsen the damage caused by Charley.

2. Flying debris from Charley.

3. I don't know about you, but sustained winds of 74 mph or higher sounds very dangerous to me.

4. Hurricane Lili struck Louisiana as a Category 1 but still caused $800 million in damage. Hurricane Georges struck the Gulf Coast as a Category 1 and still caused $2.1 billion in damage. Georges also dumped 20 inches of rain.

5. This is a large storm. The northern and central coast of Florida does not see sustained hurricane force winds often. The last hurricane to strike Central Florida was Hurricane Erin in 1995. (I know Charley moved through it, but Erin was the most recent to make landfall.) Northern Florida has not had a hurricane since Dora in 1964 and David in 1979.

6. The spiral bands can spawn tornadoes. Plus, tornadoes in hurricanes can be more difficult to see, usually obscured by the rain and wind.

7. A Category 1 hurricane can still bring in a storm surge, especially at high tide.

A weakening hurricane might mean less of a threat, but it remains a threat none the less.

Many have been comparing Frances to Floyd and Isabel. Floyd and Isabel might not have been that strong at landfall, but they were both very destructive and deadly.

Do NOT let your guard down!
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dennis1x1

#3648 Postby dennis1x1 » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:27 pm

also remember its 961 and rising....havent seen a levelling off of the rise yet......sat pics are still not impressive even though some say they are.....still weakening it appears.
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#3649 Postby nccoastalgirl » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:27 pm

Air Force Met wrote:Oooops...now it is moving WNW to W. So much for the new updated track. But...at least glad you finally gave up on the Carolinas track...that was getting a little embarrasing.


JESUS CHRIST! WHAT IS WRONG WITH PEOPLE ON THIS BOARD?
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dennis1x1

#3650 Postby dennis1x1 » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:28 pm

cat 1 not really destructive....only real widespread threat would be from flooding due to heavy rain.
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#3651 Postby GalvestonDuck » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:30 pm

Maybe not destructive in terms of wind, but destructive nevetheless because of...what you said...flooding. And it's slow moving.

One word -- Allison.
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#3652 Postby RichG » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:32 pm

It is called personal responsibility. Plan ahead, Jeb told folks not to leave the area they to go to friends and family inland or to shelters. In other words stay off the highways. Also they do have "road rangers" handing out gas to the mentally challenged who have run out of gas.
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Lebowsky

#3653 Postby Lebowsky » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:32 pm

I for one am grateful to all the people who post their thoughts on these boards. They may not be professionals, but they know more than me. I don't blindly read them as take them as something that is for certain, but I appreciate hearing different viewpoints.

The one exception is the guy who insists that it will strike in the carolinas, that's getting a bit old.

Thanks to all for taking the time to help out us Floridians, it means a lot just having a board available for all this stuff.
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#3654 Postby Sanibel » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:34 pm

Frances is too far north for Lee County. Even if she took a hard turn and came right at us she would have to pass over the thick of the landmass keeping her deadliest potential from us...


The best I can guess is a good tropical storm with lots of rain. This one will track slowly and be with us for 36 hours...


Go outside and look at the first bands coming over at us from the Everglades. A real live experience that many posters from other states can't have. Notice their low-level band flow from the NE...
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#3655 Postby nystate » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:34 pm

CNN today was predicting that Frances would cause $35,000,000,000 in damage. That's right, 35 BILLION dollars. Needless to say, I think they will be wrong. :lol:
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debbiet
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Maybe not much destruction in a perfect world but...

#3656 Postby debbiet » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:36 pm

ask the thousands of people in SE Virginia who had multiple trees crash thru their roofs from TS force winds...There is still visible and vivid reminders of Isabel's wrath a year later around here, massive numbers of trees uprooted everywhere in addition to widespread flooding, homes just washed away as water poured into the Chesapeake Bay...and without power for 2 weeks. So perhaps destruction is relative to whether its your stuff and your community that's destroyed...
Sorry for the rant...kind of embarrassed now, but I don't take ANY storm's potential for damage lightly after Isabel.
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Lebowsky

#3657 Postby Lebowsky » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:37 pm

It's still a big hurricane, but it's not the churning wall of death that we might have gotten. I'll take a 1 or 2 anyday, it is the 4 and 5 that make me scared.
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#3658 Postby debbiet » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:42 pm

Thanks for your reply AFM :-)
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#3659 Postby wlfpack81 » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:44 pm

nystate wrote:CNN today was predicting that Frances would cause $35,000,000,000 in damage. That's right, 35 BILLION dollars. Needless to say, I think they will be wrong. :lol:


Umm do you realize that based on a possible track that takes this storm thru Ga, and the Appalachains after it hits Fl that damage could well get that high. With this slow speed there will be massive amounts of inland flooding from the rains through central Ga. God forbid this thing goes over the Apps b/c then the winds will basically get forced updward as they hit these mountains (topographic lifting) which will only make matters worse b/c as we know when air rises it cools and condenses and walla more rain considering the moisture around the area will be plentiful. I won't be surprised if Frances gets its name retired just off the flooding it may cause in eastern portions of the U.S. alone.
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debbiet
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#3660 Postby debbiet » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:47 pm

No kidding...most on already saturated ground too...ask the 8 people (at least) who died in Richmond the other day when TS Gaton dropped nearly 11 inches of rain on the city causing the most serious flooding in decades!
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